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Somerset Squall

Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn

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At last! We finally have a tropical cyclone on the NW side of Australia. TC Olwyn has formed north of the Pilbara coastline, with winds of 35kts. Olwyn has some moderately deep convection directly over the LLCC, and good banding features. Shear is low and waters warm, so time before landfall is the only inhibiting factor for intensification. That being said, BOM are forecasting a category 2 system on the Australian scale, making landfall between Onslow and Exmouth.

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Olwyn appears to be strengthening quickly on approach to the coast. Convection has become considerably deeper and appears to be taking on the appearance of a central dense overcast, a sign of a maturing storm. Winds are up to 45kts according to JTWC and BOM.

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Olwyn continues to strengthen, with winds now at 55kts. JTWC now expect a 75kt peak at landfall near Exmouth.

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Olwyn has developed an eye as it nears the coast. Winds are up to 65kts according to JTWC. Landfall is expected in about 12hrs, before this occurs, Olwyn should strengthen some more.

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Olwyn has brushed land is is now west of Exmouth. The cyclone has winds of 75kts according to JTWC, however, I think Olwyn may be a touch stronger than this. Nice image here of Olwyn hugging the coast:

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Olwyn has intensified to 85kts, as it skirts down the west coast of Australia. Low shear and proximity to warm water has offset the land interaction to allow Olwyn to further intensify. The cyclone should move further inland soon and then become extratropical as it reaches southwest Australia.

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