southern indian ocean Moderate Tropical Storm Haliba

[Somerset Squall]

Moderate Tropical Storm Haliba has formed off the coast of Eastern Madagascar, with winds of 35kts. Haliba is a tiny storm, with a compact area of deep convection persisting over the small LLC. Conditions are favourable for some intensification, as shear is reletively low and outflow is currently good, but tiny systems such as Haliba are prone to even moderate amounts of shear, so there is a chance the system won't survive if shear rises. An equatorial ridge is the primary steering influence, and should steer Haliba southeastwards over the coming days, towards La Reunion, and eventually cooler water which should induce weakening and dissipation in a few days time.

[Somerset Squall]

Haliba has strengthened to 40kts. The satellite image below shows nicely Haliba's very close proximity to La Reunion, which is experiencing heavy rains and gusty winds from Haliba. Haliba looks much more impressive than yesterday, with improved banding features. JTWC expect a peak of 55kts before Haliba eventually runs into higher shear and cooler waters on the southeasterly track.

[Somerset Squall]

Haliba did not strengthen any further, and has since been declared a remnant low as shear rose shortly after I posted and stripped the LLCC of convection. Regeneration is not expected due to continued high shear and ever decreasing sea temperatures along track.