southern indian ocean Tropical Cyclone 15S

[Somerset Squall]

JTWC has initiated advisories on a system in the Mozambique Channel. 15S has winds of 35kts. The cyclone is under moderate to strong shear, which is displacing convection west of the LLCC. Shear is not expected to ease significantly, meaning strengthening should only be modest over the system's lifetime. 15S is forecast to track westwards towards Mozambique along the northern periphery of a narrow ridge to the south. This ridge is expected to ease away eastwards in a day or two, reversing 15S' track, sending the cyclone back east towards Madagascar, where an eventual landfall is expected.

 

Edited March 5, 2015 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

15S quickly got sheared apart and JTWC ceased advisories. They now indicate a MEDIUM chance of redevelopment as the LLCC moves away from the Mozambique coast towards Madagascar. Shear appears to be easing as this occurs, but the window of opportunity for development is small before the system moves inland in Madagascar.

[Somerset Squall]

Ex-15S appears to be moving inland in Madagascar. Therefore, redevelopment is no longer anticipated. However, the system os bringing some torrential rains to central parts of Madagascar, which will probably bring about some flooding here.