Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the models do seem to agree on retrogression taking place, but the ECM and GFS tend to result in a cyclonic south to south westerly developing as the Atlantic system starts to encroach on the UK.

ECM

 

GFS

 

The GEM suite seems more keen on trying to pull a northerly down though

This tying in with the operational at that time

 

We will have to see what happens, but the trend to more unsettled conditions remains at around the day 9/10 range with the near normal temperature outcome favoured, though with colder options still on the table. I must also add that the warmer solution with a more resilient ridge should be considered as well as models do tend to underestimate the weaker features.

[Frosty.]

Looking good into next week on the Gfs 6z with high pressure covering the UK and temperatures rising into the 60's F nationwide and plenty of sunshine for all, much of next week looks fine and warm with temperatures nudging higher, becoming very warm later next week as a trough digs south to the west of the UK enabling warmer air from the azores to bathe the uk.

Edited April 15, 2015 by Frosty.

[mushymanrob]

There is a nationwide settled spell on the way from Friday which continues for much of next week as a new area of high pressure builds in and intensifies over the UK, the Gfs 00z for example shows HP still in charge by next Thursday. I expect it will become rather warm again once the high is firmly established.

 

..... but only if we dont get north sea stratus, which many eastern and central areas will. the north and west will fare best, some glorious sunshine and warmth for them. but the further east you are, the longer you/we/i will hold onto the overcast cold conditions. so its a lottery... will/where/when  the sun burn off the cloud?

[summer blizzard]

Consensus appears to be that pressure will remain solidly high until at least day 8. 

 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows a change to cooler and unsettled weather by the end of next week onwards but there will be plenty of fine, anticyclonic and pleasantly warm weather with good sunny spells to enjoy for the next 7/8 days or so, indeed, next week should become rather warm with temperatures into the mid 60's F.

[Eugene]

The GEFS 6z mean shows a change to cooler and unsettled weather by the end of next week onwards but there will be plenty of fine, anticyclonic and pleasantly warm weather with good sunny spells to enjoy for the next 7/8 days or so, indeed, next week should become rather warm with temperatures into the mid 60's F.

 

 

Netweathers headline is southern warmth fading with a widespread cool settled spell starting friday, looks much cooler from tomorrow for the midlands.

[Frosty.]

Netweathers headline is southern warmth fading with a widespread cool settled spell starting friday, looks much cooler from tomorrow for the midlands.

Widespread cool is over doing it, temperatures returning to normal is hardly widespread cool is it?

The outlook is very pleasant with high pressure, light winds and lots of sunshine, then temps returning to above average.

Edited April 15, 2015 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Actually southern England will be closer to 18-20c tomorrow, so the warmth will hang on a little longer, looking ahead, it looks settled and becoming pleasantly warm again, not turning unsettled for over a week yet.

 

I agree it will stay settled one thing which will make it feel colder in the south is a gusty east to north easterly wind which could touch gale force in some exposed areas in the south over the weekend

Edited April 15, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

I agree it will stay settled one thing which will make it feel colder in the south is a gusty east to north easterly wind which could touch gale force in some exposed areas in the south over the weekend

Winds look light further north so central and northern areas should feel pleasantly warm in the long sunny spells.

Edited April 15, 2015 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Another very settled UKMO with the high firmly over the UK the south could have a noticable and chilly wind this weekend but it should ease by early next week, cloud amounts in the east could be quite high at times as well with the easterly flow

 

[seaside 60]

I agree it will stay settled one thing which will make it feel colder in the south is a gusty east to north easterly wind which could touch gale force in some exposed areas in the south over the weekend

Forcasts say for the south east staying at 12c from thursday to sunday.

Not sure where the 18-20c comes from.

It will feel like winter again down here if there is little sun.

 

Sorry that should also include FRostys quote.

Edited April 15, 2015 by seaside 60

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Agree with SS, looks to feel very chilly in a cold wind for my location, from tomorrow really

[Frosty.]

Forcasts say for the south east staying at 12c from thursday to sunday.

Not sure where the 18-20c comes from.

It will feel like winter again down here if there is little sun.

Sorry that should also include FRostys quote.

18-20c is for near the south coast tomorrow. Very warm for mid April.

Edited April 15, 2015 by Frosty.

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please keep to Model Discussion in here thanks. There are other threads for BBC,N/Weather UK forecast's.

 

Many Thanks, PM.

Edited April 15, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The GFS 12z shows temperatures returning to normal by friday with low teens celsius but then they lift a little through the weekend, edging closer to 60F in favoured spots, next week shows temps returning to above average. Next week looks very pleasant with long sunny spells but then by week 2 it becomes cooler and unsettled from the NW

Edited April 15, 2015 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows very pleasant benign conditions with high pressure for most of next week, thereafter, pressure falls, and our weather becomes cooler and generally unsettled through late April.

[Captain Shortwave]

Looks like we will have a nagging north easterly wind from tomorrow through to around next Tuesday. This could bring a lot of cool and cloudy conditions to eastern areas and even more central areas at times.

Tuesday onwards the high drifts south eastwards which will hopefully bring warmer and sunnier weather more widely across the UK. 

 

Beyond this point, cold Arctic air starts to head southwards as heights retrogress towards Greenland, where this cold air goes and the resulting UK pattern remains uncertain, though a drift towards unsettled conditions look more likely towards the latter end of week 2. Some colder options and warmer options.

ECM looks rather warm from the middle of next week.

low twenties possible during week 2 on the ECM.

 

More swings and roundabouts to come.

[Frosty.]

Looks like we will have a nagging north easterly wind from tomorrow through to around next Tuesday.

When you say we will have a nagging north easterly until next Tuesday I assume you mean your location because the northern half of the UK will have light winds being closer to the core of the intensifying anticyclone so it will actually feel pleasantly warm in central and northern areas in the sunshine and light winds.

[Milhouse]

The ECM 12z slams the door shut on any cool northerly thanks to low pressure setting up just to the west of the UK dragging up fairly warm and pleasant conditions from the south,.

 

 

The 12z mean  suggests the warmer SW outcome is more likely.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening Folks. The mainly dry theme continues, with high pressure in control, but what will be dramatic is the temperature difference! The weekend will offer a very cold wind to southern parts of the uk from the NorthEast. Looks like cloudy conditions will be extensive with some patchy light rain/drizzle for some especially for those exposed to the northeasterly wind. Parts of Wales and Southwest England could enjoy the warmest of temperatures. The east coast of Britain will shiver in the days ahead. Its been a dry winter and spring so far here, and it looks like continuing for some time yet!

[summer blizzard]

The ECM 12z slams the door shut on any cool northerly thanks to low pressure setting up just to the west of the UK dragging up fairly warm and pleasant conditions from the south,.

 

 

The 12z mean  suggests the warmer SW outcome is more likely.

 

 

The operational's all right but i'm wary of that mean. Shift the trough a couple of hundred miles east and we get an extremely wet synoptic.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY APRIL 16TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will slowly develop over Northern Britain with the remains of a weak front over Central areas moving further South and dissipating entirely by tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK. A little rain is likely at times especially later in week 2 with temperatures returning nearer to average.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST A period of generally weak Jet flow activity remains forecast with the flow steered well North of the UK due to High pressure near the North of the UK itself. Later in the run though still fairly weak the flow will be directed South of the UK towards Spain and Portugal as Low pressure becomes more of a feature around the UK.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure across or near to the North of the UK over the next week or so with fine and dry weather with sunny spells and although the positioning of this could mean somewhat cooler temperatures than of late especially across the South there will be some pleasant weather to be enjoyed at times for all with the best warmth and sunshine likely in the NW. Later High pressure declines and the UK becomes much more at risk of rain or showers as pressure falls from both the North and West with temperatures not that warm either at the end of the period. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is much kinder than the operational and though it also shows some decline in the influence of High pressure through the second week the path to that involves High pressure largely remaing close to the SE with just occasional rain likely focused towards the NW with any rain reaching other areas slight and short-lived.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters remain mixed for two weeks today with the overlying trend being for some sort of High pressure to the SW with a light NW flow down across the UK in what would be pargely average temperatures for early May.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure well established across the UK next week, remaining centred across the UK with light winds and dry weather for all with sunny spells and temperatures very respectable for many if not hot but with some chilly nights.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show any weak fronts near the South dissipating leaving the UK in the circulation of a High pressure over Northern Britain with a chilly NE flow over the South at times tempering the temperatures and dragging in some cloudier patches as well.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today loosely follows the trend of GFS by maintaining dry and fine weather across the UK over the next week as High pressure holds firm before rather more unsettled conditions develops as pressure falls from the NW with Low pressure gradually taking over control with rain at times by the end of the run.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM maintains High pressure across the UK right out to the end of the run although High pressure becomes more in the form of a ridge from High pressure by then well to the NW of the UK and fine weather holding on across the UK though never impressively warm.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM today has differed slightly this morning with the shift of High pressure to the South of the UK by 10 days time setting up a more traditional NW/SE split in the weather by then with rain at times especially across the North and West. In the short term there will be plenty of fine and dry weather as High pressure remains centred across the top of the UK

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z)The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night is beginning to trend towards something more unsettled as Low pressure over the Atlantic edges into the UK from the West and NW with High pressure receding away to the SE by then.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning maintain High pressure well in control of the UK for most of the term of the outputs on offer today though a shift towards more unsettled weather with time is indicated still by some output.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.3 pts over UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 87.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.3 pts over GFS's 61.9 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.7 pts over GFS at 43.1. 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS Not much change in the models this morning especially in the short term with High pressure remaining dominant across Britain for the reliable future, probably centred a little further North and NW than would be ideal but ensuring a lot of fine and dry weather across all areas of the UK for some considerable time. Temperatures may be suppressed somewhat especially near the East coast where more cloud could drift in off a chilly North Sea at times. Elsewhere there should be some pleasantly warm sunny conditions especially in the sheltered West but clear skies overnight could bring the risk of grass frosts still so gardeners and growers beware. Then looking into the crystal ball of week 2 the general consensus is still for a slow decline in High pressure with the risk of some rain or showers slowly increasing across the UK probably from the West and NW as High pressure recedes away to the East and SE. Details of any such decline in conditions is very sketchy still and not very consistent in type so any deterioration in conditions remains at more than arms length and uncertain for the moment so we can all continue to enjoy the pleasant mid Spring conditions with little rainfall and average temperatures. 

 

Next update from 08:00 Friday April 17th 2015

[Winter Cold]

Morning all

 

The 24th has been showing up very frequently the last few days for the potential breakdown and this mornings runs maintain that thought. So another week of high pressure to go before a change its looking like. Here are the ECM and GFS 0z means:

 

                                                    

 

At 8 days out though, its still not certain and the high could prove more stubborn, as they often do!

[knocker]

This mornings anomalies are still looking at a breakdown of this fine weather (alologies to those up north) from around the T192 mark.

 

Essentially LP Faroes with a trough into NE Europe and another orientated SW into the Atlantic with weak HP over western Europe. This would tend to LP to the west and NE and a south westerly fetch over the UK with unsettled condition and around average temps. But I wouldn't rubber stamp the script just yet as it does depend on how much the HP can hang on and influence things.

 

Having said that it does appear that zonality and more trough influence will be the order of the day in the ext period.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited April 16, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows high pressure retrogression later next week and an Arctic blast bringing snow to the far north and then an unsettled and chilly further outlook. However, for the next week or so the 6z shows settled conditions as high pressure takes over from tomorrow, temps much lower than they have been in the south by tomorrow but not much different for northern areas. We should all see our fair share of sunshine but it may be rather cloudy in eastern counties bordering the north sea as long as we have a NEly breeze which becomes strong for a time in the far south. Temperatures start to rise above average once we lose the NEly airflow. Most of next week looks fine and pleasantly warm before that much colder weather I mentioned at the beginning arrives in the far north towards the end of next week.