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Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->


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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

The means tonight are pretty similar to the ops, so fairly good agreement that things might start to slip away in terms of settled weather beyond next weekend. Not a bad week to come though first, although the high clearly towards the west on the GEFS going forward:

 

GEFS mean:

 

gens-21-1-48.png?12  gens-21-1-96.png?12  gens-21-1-144.png?12  gens-21-1-192.png?12  gens-21-1-240.png  gens-21-1-384.png

 

 

ECM ENS mean:

 

EDM1-48.GIF?13-0  EDM1-96.GIF?13-0  EDM1-144.GIF?13-0  EDM1-192.GIF?13-0  EDM1-240.GIF?13-0

Edited by Winter Cold
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening Folks ! Is any one awake :rofl:  :rofl: :rofl: High pressure  rules the roost, after a few toasty days both ecm and gfs  show a big cool down..... 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A brief look at the latest EC32 update.

 

The 23rd has a ridge west of Ireland to Greenland; LP NW Atlantic and trough orientated south Scandinavia/NE Europe. Thus HP west of Ireland giving a N airstream and around average temps.

 

By the 30th the ridge has gone with weak HP Pole and Greenland but a general area of LP NW of the UK through Scandinavia into eastern Europe. Giving a Pm NW airstream and below average temps with the HP pushed south.

 

The 7th May gives a very similar picture with perhaps the Azores HP pushing slightly further north and the winds backing to W/SW but still temps below average.

 

By the 15th signs of a general pressure rise in the eastern Atlantic and Scandinavia with the Azores HP ridging from the SW but temps still below average.

 

Summary

After the end of the current period of fine weather (apart from the north) it looks like being quite unsettled for a couple of weeks before settling down again with temps below average.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

For the coming weekend, the models seem to be coming to the consensus of building the high over the north of the UK

ECM

ECM1-120.GIF?14-12

 

UKMO

UW120-21.GIF?14-06

 

GFS

gfs-0-120.png?0

 

GEM

gem-0-120.png?00

 

The GFS and GEM the furthest north which allows a chilly north easterly wind to develop in the south. ECM and UKMO look pleasant with sunny spells and light winds. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if 20C was reached in favoured locations (western Wales perhaps for example)

 

The models are now starting to also suggest that southern counties might get an extra warm day, the GFS going for 22C in the south now.

 

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ECM still showing the 8C isotherm over southern Britain even by Friday morning, so that would back that up to some extent. The slight risk of heavy showers/Thunderstorms also extends into Thursday as well.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

the unsettled cold from the north as was touted a few days ago has evaporated (always a possibility) with an upper trough nearer the south of the uk looking more of an option. However, this is also very speculative at the moment. certainly more potential for a drift away from the higher heights we've become used to recently but how unsettled and how cold??

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

just as i thought cold northerly shifted further east and now high looks slap bang over us!!oh well I'm not complaining cos am loving the current conditions we are having!!long may it continue!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

just as i thought cold northerly shifted further east and now high looks slap bang over us!!oh well I'm not complaining cos am loving the current conditions we are having!!long may it continue!!!!!

 

your posts are great agree with all, but yeah we do not want a northerly now, unless you're over 300m asl, good its shifted east

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY APRIL 14TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A warm and moist SW or West flow covers much of the UK today with a weakening cold front moving South over Scotland and Northern England tonight and tomorrow.

 


 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK. A little rain is likely at times especially later in week 2 with temperatures returning nearer to average.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast shows the main flow currently running East over the far North weakening over the coming days and then steered well away to the North of the UK for much of the remainder of the run driven by High pressure centred near the UK through much of the run period today this morning.

 


 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows plenty of High pressure across or around the UK over the coming two weeks. The position varies from day to day with a bias of it being just to the North and NE of the UK with a cool East wind at times in the South but with very little rainfall anywhere and some warm days at times chiefly but not exclusively in the West and NW. 

 


 


 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar in Week 1 with plenty of High pressure driven fine and sunny weather  with moderate warmth in the sunshine but chilly nights. In the second week this run shows more ingress of low pressure from the West eroding the fine weather and introducing some rain and showers at times to many areas and near average temperatures.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters continue to show mixed messages in two weeks time with a mix of High pressure to the South and SW with varying degrees in the extent of influence of Atlantic Low pressure to the North or NW while a 20% or so mix indicating a much more High pressure based pattern across the UK by then. 

 


 

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure developing and intensifying across the UK towards and over the weekend with fine and sunny conditions for many under light winds, chilly nights and though days not as warm as currently in the South they will remain very respectable in the sunshine.

 


 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the increasingly High pressure area across the UK late in the week and weekend with a weak front on it's Southern flank gradually dissolving away South taking it's warm and humid air with it and replacing it with fine and sunny weather if less warm by the weekend.

 


 

GEM GEM today also shows a build of High pressure but this model places it further to the north with a cool East wind across much of the UK with dry and fine weather and the best of the sunshine in the West. The run also still likes the idea of attempting to introduce colder and more unsettled conditions from the North later as pressure falls across and to the west of the UK in cold air aloft.

 


 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure once formed across the UK in a few days time maintained through to the end of the run with fine and settled weather for all with some warm sushine by day but with chilly Spring nights.

 


 

ECM ECM today is showing High pressure too with the centre well defined at the weekend gradually become less so next week in as much as by the end of next week pressure is slack and lower than earlier in the week introducing the risk of some cool and more unsettled conditions with the risk of showers increasing almost anywhere 

 


 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z)  The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows High pressure ensconced near or over the UK with largely fine and settled conditions most likely with any rain bearing Atlantic based weather systems weak and steered well away from the UK.

 


 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning maintain High pressure well in control of the UK for most of the term of the outputs on offer today.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.7 pts over UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 87.1. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.1 pts over GFS's 61.0 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.4 pts over GFS at 42.4. 

 


 


 


 


 

 

MY THOUGHTS High pressure is the driving force of the model output from both sides of the Atlantic today with all output showing strong support for a UK based High pressure area developing late this week and lasting some considerable time before some longer term output explores the possibility of a decline in conditions in week 2 but none of that shown indicating any major shift away from settled weather. The current fine and very warm conditions across Southern England will be replaced by a new High on Thursday and Friday with cooler and for a time cloudier conditions perhaps with the odd shower as an old front clears South. Then through the weekend and much of next week there will be plenty of sunny days with light winds and temperatures near or somewhat above average by day but cool near East facing coasts and universally cool by night with some unwanted grass frosts at times. All areas look like staying dry with even the far NW largely fine. As I indicated earlier as we move through Week 2 the extended outputs do suggest some moderation in High pressure as Low pressure in one shape or shallow form offers the risk of cool and showery conditions becoming a possibility late in the second week but at such a range not much credence can be put on this yet. So lets all enjoy what looks likely to be a sustained fine period and though not always overly warm especially by night at least the bright Spring sunshine will be welcomed for many though I have heard locally that some Farmers and Growers could do with a drop of rain for the Spring crops down here in the south and SW. 

 

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday April 15th 2015

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The weekend and much of next week is shaping up to be anticyclonic with long sunny spells and light winds, cold nights where skies are clear. It's turning into a very good spring away from the northwest but the good news is that we are in for a nationwide settled spell so areas which are / have been cold and unsettled will soon be enjoying pleasantly warm sunny conditions, the ukmo 0z looks great for the weekend and into next week.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows a fantastic outlook with the new UK based high pressure sat on top of the UK which would bring a good deal of warm and sunny weather to all parts of the UK but with cold nights under clear skies, it's great to see the high adjusted further east compared to recently.

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY APRIL 14TH 2015.
 
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A warm and moist SW or West flow covers much of the UK today with a weakening cold front moving South over Scotland and Northern England tonight and tomorrow.
 
 
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK. A little rain is likely at times especially later in week 2 with temperatures returning nearer to average.
 
THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast shows the main flow currently running East over the far North weakening over the coming days and then steered well away to the North of the UK for much of the remainder of the run driven by High pressure centred near the UK through much of the run period today this morning.
 
 
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows plenty of High pressure across or around the UK over the coming two weeks. The position varies from day to day with a bias of it being just to the North and NE of the UK with a cool East wind at times in the South but with very little rainfall anywhere and some warm days at times chiefly but not exclusively in the West and NW. 
 
 
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar in Week 1 with plenty of High pressure driven fine and sunny weather  with moderate warmth in the sunshine but chilly nights. In the second week this run shows more ingress of low pressure from the West eroding the fine weather and introducing some rain and showers at times to many areas and near average temperatures.
 
THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters continue to show mixed messages in two weeks time with a mix of High pressure to the South and SW with varying degrees in the extent of influence of Atlantic Low pressure to the North or NW while a 20% or so mix indicating a much more High pressure based pattern across the UK by then. 
 
 
UKMO UKMO shows High pressure developing and intensifying across the UK towards and over the weekend with fine and sunny conditions for many under light winds, chilly nights and though days not as warm as currently in the South they will remain very respectable in the sunshine.
 
 
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the increasingly High pressure area across the UK late in the week and weekend with a weak front on it's Southern flank gradually dissolving away South taking it's warm and humid air with it and replacing it with fine and sunny weather if less warm by the weekend.
 
 
GEM GEM today also shows a build of High pressure but this model places it further to the north with a cool East wind across much of the UK with dry and fine weather and the best of the sunshine in the West. The run also still likes the idea of attempting to introduce colder and more unsettled conditions from the North later as pressure falls across and to the west of the UK in cold air aloft.
 
 
NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure once formed across the UK in a few days time maintained through to the end of the run with fine and settled weather for all with some warm sushine by day but with chilly Spring nights.
 
 
ECM ECM today is showing High pressure too with the centre well defined at the weekend gradually become less so next week in as much as by the end of next week pressure is slack and lower than earlier in the week introducing the risk of some cool and more unsettled conditions with the risk of showers increasing almost anywhere 
 
 
ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z)  The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows High pressure ensconced near or over the UK with largely fine and settled conditions most likely with any rain bearing Atlantic based weather systems weak and steered well away from the UK.
 
 
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning maintain High pressure well in control of the UK for most of the term of the outputs on offer today.
 
31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.7 pts over UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 87.1. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.1 pts over GFS's 61.0 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.4 pts over GFS at 42.4. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
MY THOUGHTS High pressure is the driving force of the model output from both sides of the Atlantic today with all output showing strong support for a UK based High pressure area developing late this week and lasting some considerable time before some longer term output explores the possibility of a decline in conditions in week 2 but none of that shown indicating any major shift away from settled weather. The current fine and very warm conditions across Southern England will be replaced by a new High on Thursday and Friday with cooler and for a time cloudier conditions perhaps with the odd shower as an old front clears South. Then through the weekend and much of next week there will be plenty of sunny days with light winds and temperatures near or somewhat above average by day but cool near East facing coasts and universally cool by night with some unwanted grass frosts at times. All areas look like staying dry with even the far NW largely fine. As I indicated earlier as we move through Week 2 the extended outputs do suggest some moderation in High pressure as Low pressure in one shape or shallow form offers the risk of cool and showery conditions becoming a possibility late in the second week but at such a range not much credence can be put on this yet. So lets all enjoy what looks likely to be a sustained fine period and though not always overly warm especially by night at least the bright Spring sunshine will be welcomed for many though I have heard locally that some Farmers and Growers could do with a drop of rain for the Spring crops down here in the south and SW. 
 
Next update from 08:00 Wednesday April 15th 2015
 
 
 
 

 

 

 

The average April min is 4C so its completely normal, who are these people who don't want cool nights anyway, most people like them.

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

The return of the late month northerly cold incursion on the GFS 6z:

 

gfs-0-240.png?6  gfs-1-240.png?6

 

It keeps popping up doesnt it, so still an option for sure.

Edited by Winter Cold
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 6z shows a risk of isolated thunderstorms tomorrow evening across parts of southern britain as the curtain comes down on the very warm spell in the south but then we see a new anticyclone building in over the UK from Friday and intensifying during the weekend into early next week with lots of strong sunshine and light winds with temperatures recovering again after a cooler blip, rising into the 60's F so a very pleasant spell nationwide but with chilly nights under clear skies, then later next week as our high drifts away NW (classic retrogression) we have an Arctic maritime incursion with snow in the north and sharper night frosts for a time.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

One of the most interesting times of the year synoptically and a fascinating trend in the NAO:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

Set to go negative and indeed strongly negative from a number of members later this month suggesting the evolution of low heights to the SW and higher heights to the North and North-West is very much on the cards. The NAO was scarcely negative all winter and this forecast would have been like manna from heaven for the coldies on here three months ago but it'snot atypical for spring/summer.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015041406/gfsnh-0-192.png?6?6

 

There's your classic NAO negative chart - strong heights over Greenland and low pressure to the SW depressing the height anomaly and driving the index down. Into deepest FI and we might get a West-based Negative NAO evolution but that's a very long way off.

 

Once again, not atypical for spring - there's often a transition to colder and less settled conditions after a brief warm spell before the warmth returns in May.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The GFS 06z operational was the coldest member bar one for the 7-10 day range, would be interesting to come off given that snow would be produced in any showers that do develop.

The ens are not really giving much goo guidance at the moment, it does look like heights will retrogress to our north west, but a murky picture remains around the UK with distinct low heights to our north east and south west. At this moment it leaves 3 distinct possibilities.

1) The trough to the north east dominates bringing cooler weather and some rain or showers at times.

2) The high remains to some degree over the UK, keeping conditions dry and fairly mild.

3) The low to our south west becomes more dominant with a ridge still present just to our east, this being a warm and humid solution.

 

Ultimately though the end game does seem to be a slow slip into more unsettled conditions by the end of the month, this expressed by the increased precipitation spikes later on in week 2.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Gosh, very quiet in here this evening, no posts for 5 hours, reminiscent of the traditional mid summer slumber.

 

As is often the case at this time of year, the models show a very quiet picture with anticyclonic conditions dominating keeping the atlantic at bay for the foreseeable. Hard to call how things may pan out for the latter part of the month, but both ECM and GFS are indicating a possible change to something generally more unsettled and preety cool for the time of year with heights possibly retrogressing to the NW. Interesting NAO forecast predictions, suggesting a negative NAO for the first time this year.. Northerly airstreams tend to reach their yearly maxim late April and through May, so not surprising perhaps to see such trends.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Looking at tonight's anomalies the indication is still for a breakdown of the HP domination post T192. Not written in stone of course.

 

Both the GEFS and ECM have HP N.Canada/Greenland with a weak trough SW of the UK and the main trough NE Europe. The question is how will this translate with regard the surface analysis. It would seem likely to be HP over Greenland with a general area of low pressure eastern Atlantic but the key question may well be how far east the main upper trough sits regarding a cool northerly airflow.

 

At the moment the ext ECM is looking at the LP away to the NE with a zonal westerly Pm flow.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a new anticyclone building in over the top of the BI and intensifying during the weekend and lasting until later next week with a nationwide settled spell bringing lots of sunshine and temperatures recovering again after a cooler interlude, I would think temps will rise into the low to mid 60's F by early next week but with chilly nights where skies are clear. As for tomorrow, the SE could squeeze out a 25c 77f and those very high temps could also trigger a few thunderstorms tomorrow evening across parts of the south / southeast.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS again this morning shows an unsettled Northerly flow towards the end of the Month. Some great Spring weather as we speak, With some places hitting 24/25c this afternoon in the far South. While the North keeps to single digits..

 

ukmaxtemp.pngh850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There is a nationwide settled spell on the way from Friday which continues for much of next week as a new area of high pressure builds in and intensifies over the UK, the Gfs 00z for example shows HP still in charge by next Thursday. I expect it will become rather warm again once the high is firmly established.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Sorry if its off topic but if we hit 25c will that be close to breaking any records for mid April?

29.4c is the highest recorded April temperature, recorded in London in 1949.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The anomalies support the idea of ridge conditions into the 6-10 day period and possibly further out too.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 15TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening cold front will move South across England and Wales today and tonight with pressure High to the South declining slowly.

 


 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK. A little rain is likely at times especially later in week 2 with temperatures returning nearer to average.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST A period of generally weak Jet flow activity is likely as the flow over Northern Scotland realigns well North and South of the UK from the weekend and next week strengthening slowly and relocating close to the UK by the end of the period as pressure falls.

 


 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure across or near to the North of the UK over the next week or so with fine and dry weather with sunny spells and although the positioning of this could mean somewhat cooler temperatures than of late there will be some pleasant High pressure at times for all with the best warmth and sunshine likely in the NW. Later High pressure recedes away SE and a cold NW flow with rain or showers looks likely towards the end of the second week. 

 


 


 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar in theme this morning with the best weather in Week 1 as pressure stays High across the Uk with fine and dry conditions though often with a chilly East wind across the South. This run too illustrates much more unsettled weather in Week 2 as Low pressure pulls down from the North with windy and sometimes wet weather alternating with chilly and showery conditions as well.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters remain mixed for two weeks today as the majority of members show High pressure to the South or SW with some or quite a bit of influence shown by Atlantic fronts and depressions either to the North and NE of the UK.. 

 


 

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure well established across the UK at the weekend and early next week but with a central position over the North or just West of Scotland and Ireland later a chilly East feed looks like affecting the South at times where it may also become rather cloudy and cooler especially near East facing coasts with the best conditions to the NW.

 


 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the weak front currently moving South across Britain dissipating across Southern England in the coming days to leave High pressure well established across Northern Britain with dry and fine weather for all but with an increasing and cool East wind developing across the South.

 


 

GEM GEM today loosely follows the trend of GFS by maintaining dry and fine weather across the UK over the next week as High pressure holds firm before rather colder and more showery weather feeds down across the UK from the North late in the period as pressure falls.

 


 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure well in control over the next 168hrs or so with the centre up to the Northwest of the UK or over the North for much of the time maintaining fine and dry weather though with chillier conditions for the SE for much of the time.

 


 

ECM ECM today is a little different in that while High pressure remains dominant to the North of the UK for the next week with fine weather and the same chilly East flow across the South at times a shift towards more Atlantic based Westerly weather type looks likely as we move into the second week especially in the NW as High pressure returns to a point SE of the UK. 

 


 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows slack pressure gradients across the UK with some shallow Low features possibly giving rise to a few showers across the South and the threat of colder North winds shown to the area of the norwegian Sea which could become signifiacant with time.

 


 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning maintain High pressure well in control of the UK for most of the term of the outputs on offer today though a shift towards colder conditions from the north or NW is hinted at later.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.1 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.4 pts over UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 87.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.4 pts over GFS's 61.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.7 pts over GFS at 42.9. 

 


 


 


 


 

 

MY THOUGHTS The main focus on the outputs this morning remain the longevity and extent of High pressure near or close to the UK largely maintaining the fine and bright weather for some considerable time. However, having said that the positioning of the High is such that wall to wall sunshine and high temperatures such as those the South have enjoyed of late look more unlikely to be maintained after today as an Easterly or NE flow is likely to develop across Southern Britain from tomorrow dragging cooler air and more cloud in off the North Sea and while I hope the North Sea doesn't become infilled with extensive low cloud and mist it there is a distinct possibility that it will and if it does the South could see some chilly and cloudy conditions rather than the bright and sunnier conditions that would then focus on the West and NW where the highest temperatures would also transfer too. For those looking for more maintained dry conditions this looks more universally likely with little if any frontal rainfall anywhere after today for some considerable time. Then we have to look to the outer limits of the model runs today to see another general thought feeling between the models that a push of more unsettled and from some colder weather looks increasingly likely from the North later in the second week with rain at times for many and perhaps even wintry showers over the North but all this remains a long way off and is naturally open to change. So in a nutshell a lot of fine and dry weather for the next few weeks for all but the main caveat being it will not always mean wall to wall sunshine and high temperatures especially in the South where it may feel rather chilly at times in a brisk East wind and a lot of cloud at times. 

 

Next update from 08:00 Thursday April 16th 2015

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  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM ens shows the high lasting well into next week this morning though an easterly flow so some eastern coasts could well be cooler with the risk of cloud / sea fog

 

EDU1-24.GIF?15-12EDU1-144.GIF?15-12

 

D9 and D10 shows the possibility of something more unsettled developing with cooler air in the far north but temps around or slightly average the further south you go

 

EDU1-216.GIF?15-12EDU1-240.GIF?15-12

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