Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Gael_Force]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean turns very blocked with a powerful scandi high becoming the dominant feature as far as the uk is concerned, it's goodbye to the Atlantic for possibly a couple of weeks beyond T+168..it won't be missed by me.

I hope a few of us keep the model output discussion alive despite the mass exodus. :-)

I don't come in here much during winter as I cannot be arsed with the snow angst but the exodus seems greater than usual this year. Maybe the final nail in winter's coffin (and the interest of many)  is the temerity of our weather to now provide the perfect synoptics.....just when winter has gone.

[IanR]

Has Richard ever posted anything positive lol, he makes me laugh though

[Eugene]

bloody gorgeous here today :

 

 

Been bloody gorgeous all week mushy, just because it wasn't warm earlier in the week doesn't mean it wasn't gorgeous.

[Evening thunder]

From MarkVoganweather....

 

https://twitter.com/MarkVogan/status/573489338840911872

 

Possible cooler, wetter Summer.

 

1976 looks like it had a pretty cool AMO 

[mushymanrob]

I don't come in here much during winter as I cannot be arsed with the snow angst but the exodus seems greater than usual this year. Maybe the final nail in winter's coffin (and the interest of many)  is the temerity of our weather to now provide the perfect synoptics.....just when winter has gone.

 

i reckon the few who post here sum up the outlook very well, and with rather uninteresting weather expected there seems little point in repeating what others have more elequently posted!

 

[stevofunnelcl]

Another wonderful Daily Star front page tomorrow

 

Hottest Spring Ever - Break out the BBQ

 

Plus, they are giving away a free water bottle !! (cause we'll all be soon sweltering, i presume)

[mistyqueen]

Just in case there's a drought anywhere south of Skye and the NW Highlands.....I can sell you some water.....I had 53.9mm in the last 24 hours and we are expecting another deluge tomorrow. Want me to keep some aside for you? Special deals for Netweather members!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think we are looking at a very wet week, for midlands anyway, the usual setup of wet days and dry nights, mon, wed and thur look washed out, but dry every night this week

 

and then I think more rain from Sun 15th

[mackerel sky]

Snow next Sunday? Anyone! Anyone?

[cyclonic happiness]

Snow next Sunday? Anyone! Anyone?

Winter, the only season we get twice per year, and yet snow comes at any time other!! ><

[snowblizzard]

It looks like winter finally seems to be over in USA!

What would most of us have given for a winter like they've just had?

Edited March 9, 2015 by snowblizzard

[Yarmy]

ECM suggesting some HLB in the Greenland area for 2 runs now.

 

 

 

Of primary interest to me though is whether the fronts would push through quickly enough to leave us under clear skies come the morning of the 20th. 

[conor123]

Worst charts ever this weekend, 5c day and night with stratomuck.

Be glad when clocks go forward so have at least a chance to enjoy some sunshine as it only comes out weekdays nowadays bar the odd rogue Saturday   

Edited March 10, 2015 by conor123

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Worst charts ever this weekend, 5c day and night with stratomuck.

Be glad when clocks go forward so have at least a chance to enjoy some sunshine as it only comes out weekdays nowadays bar the odd rogue Saturday   

 

better than heavy rain, Rain is more common than dry here, would settle for 5C and dry, Friday 13th mind you a shocker for our areas

[Richard2901]

The model output is so vile and disgusting it makes me want to swear. Absolute filth. Doesn't look like a single passable day in the next week with the wind coming from the worst possible direction. Sunless, wet and depressing. Intolerable on top of all the other spells of rank south easterlies we've been forced to suffer over the past 15 months

 

This has been an outstandingly boring late winter/early spring. Windy every day for almost a month, barely a frost and hardly any days reaching 10C, zero convective activity of any sort. It is pathetic. This current spell is the most dismal since November and clearly is going to get even worse. 2015 just continuing where 2014 left off in spewing out the worst possible garbage at all times

[Penrith Snow]

I can understand Richards frustration, prospects from mid to late March has gone from sunny high pressure to a weak easterly with drizzle and sleet. The models again have been absolutely useless beyond 5 days.

Nothing worse than a weak easterly in March with a cold breeze, cloudy skies and light sleet when everyone wants a bit of warmth, pure pants!

Andy

[PHLIPPY67]

Just typical that we waited all winter for a Scandi High...and we get one in mid March...!! wish i was in that Italian village that had 8ft...yes 8ft of snow in 24hrs....

[knocker]

Ryan Maue â€@RyanMaue 19m19 minutes ago

ECMWF global model lighting up scoreboard w/record high 5-day skill scores (again) 0.972

 

 

[johnholmes]

 

The model output is so vile and disgusting it makes me want to swear. Absolute filth. Doesn't look like a single passable day in the next week with the wind coming from the worst possible direction. Sunless, wet and depressing. Intolerable on top of all the other spells of rank south easterlies we've been forced to suffer over the past 15 months

 

This has been an outstandingly boring late winter/early spring. Windy every day for almost a month, barely a frost and hardly any days reaching 10C, zero convective activity of any sort. It is pathetic. This current spell is the most dismal since November and clearly is going to get even worse. 2015 just continuing where 2014 left off in spewing out the worst possible garbage at all times

 

 

 

sorry could not help this

'always look on the bright side of life'

one day perhaps you will ?

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's one of those situations that often frustrates snow lovers but has a strong scientific basis behind it.  The strength of the westerlies is typically at its weakest between mid-February and mid-June and therefore blocked setups with Greenland and/or Scandinavian highs are more likely to happen.  Scandinavian High setups are particularly frustrating because at this time of year they are usually associated with stratus and drizzle in eastern parts of the country.  The North Sea is near its coldest but the continent is warming up, and so it is hard to achieve those cold unstable easterlies with snow showers.  I don't think the easterly will sustain for long enough to produce a repeat of 11-25 March 1996, though, when many parts of NE England had 15 consecutive sunless days.

Edited March 15, 2015 by Thundery wintry showers

[coldcomfort]

Dire model output at the moment, neither fish nor foul.  Stripping wind and rain out of the mix, we must have some on the most boring weather on this planet, with any interesting extremes virtually non existent.   End of rant!!

[cheeky_monkey]

Dire model output at the moment, neither fish nor foul.  Stripping wind and rain out of the mix, we must have some on the most boring weather on this planet, with any interesting extremes virtually non existent.   End of rant!!

do we I am not so sure about that?

[TwisterGirl81]

Good lord, two more bloody weeks of cloudy skys with the very odd sunny day and no rain, how boring....Lets hope we have high pressure like this in the summer but you know what the british whether can be like.

 

To me this winter weather has been pretty much boring....Last winter was FAR more exciting in the southwest.

 

I'm speaking from where I live in the southwest but we've really not had that much rain at all this winter compared to most winters, I'd be interested to see sastitics.

Edited March 17, 2015 by TwisterGirl81

[IanR]

 

 

To me this winter weather has been pretty much boring....Last winter was FAR more exciting in the southwest.

 

 

I agree with this , many say this winter is a big improvement on last ?  how is it ??? , not been cold and snowy enough , and no decent storms either for the likes of me, its been a drab boring no mans land of dross for months now ,  roll on spring and summer , I can nearly taste it now , at least we may get some torrential downpours and convective cloudscapes 

[knocker]

Ryan Maue â€@RyanMaue 26m26 minutes ago

Now 114 forecasts made by GFS post-upgrade to compare to ECMWF -- which is upgrading in April. 30-day running mean: