Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Polar Maritime]

Ok, As Scott has politely asked please continue in here with discussion loosely based around the Models.

 

If your post is missing it's here  https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82826-summer-2015/page-75#entry3243913 in the relevant thread.

Edited August 9, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[DavidHamble57]

Looks pretty good to me

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

[William of Walworth]

Respect to mushy's post above.

 

Frosty has been much criticised for his optimistic predictions.

 

Often these frustrate me (another summer-lover/hopecaster!) for focussing a tad too much on FI and not enough on prospects (usually worse, of late)  for 'up to the coming weekend'

 

This year's frequent inability of High Pressure to build enough has been a killer for those who want some properly settled spells away from just the SE.

 

But on the main Model Output thread, I really think one or two other contributors relish a little too much the VERY WORST cherry picked charts and dismiss any possibility of HP influence at any time ever.

[DavidHamble57]

All I've seen Frosty doing is posting charts over 5 days ago bigging up any warm or settled weather constantly all summer, with most areas not getting anything like the kind of weather that people's expectations (not mine though) are played up to. 

[mushymanrob]

All I've seen Frosty doing is posting charts over 5 days ago bigging up any warm or settled weather constantly all summer, with most areas not getting anything like the kind of weather that people's expectations (not mine though) are played up to.

But thats the point, he isnt bigging them up, hes posting the charts the outputs are showing. Its not his doing they they generally have failed to evolve as predicted.

I wonder if those knocking Frosty will do so in winter when he switches to cold weather seeking?

[DavidHamble57]

But thats the point, he isnt bigging them up, hes posting the charts the outputs are showing. Its not his doing they they generally have failed to evolve as predicted.

 

Maybe not, but then it should be a lesson that charts over 5+ days rarely become the reality and showing them does often raise some people's expectations. He also does cherry pick charts, from certain days, missing out less good looking days.

[Eugene]

All I've seen Frosty doing is posting charts over 5 days ago bigging up any warm or settled weather constantly all summer, with most areas not getting anything like the kind of weather that people's expectations (not mine though) are played up to. 

 

 

Well he's been right for me, very dry summer with only a few wet days like today and consistently warm/humid, nothing has gone wrong this summer just peoples too high expectations like last winter which i thought was pretty decent snow excluded.

[William of Walworth]

Maybe not, but then it should be a lesson that charts over 5+ days rarely become the reality and showing them does often raise some people's expectations. He also does cherry pick charts, from certain days, missing out less good looking days.

Not completely disagreing with that, as on occasion the gaps he leaves frustate me,

 

But your valid point that 'charts over 5+ days rarely become the reality' is also advice (ie FI is FI) that should also apply, and strongly, to the writer-offers, ie those who highlight/cherrypick the very worst charts within a run.

 

And IMO, Frosty shows a wider range of output most often, and justifies them better,  than those who present pessimistic charts misleadingly. They know who they are.

[mushymanrob]

Maybe not, but then it should be a lesson that charts over 5+ days rarely become the reality and showing them does often raise some people's expectations. He also does cherry pick charts, from certain days, missing out less good looking days.

 

wait until winter if you have a problem with people picking fi charts to get hopes up! if you think frostys summer bias is strong, you aint seen nothing yet!

if charts over 5 days ahead rarely become reality....why do the gfs/ukmo/ecm release them? they might not be dead accurate but do give us a good indication .

 

Well he's been right for me, very dry summer with only a few wet days like today and consistently warm/humid, nothing has gone wrong this summer just peoples too high expectations like last winter which i thought was pretty decent snow excluded.

 

...but its NOT been humid! youve often agreed with me when i was saying earlier in the summer how pleasant the fresh pm air is!

its been a poor summer for heat and humidity, its been good for those who dont like warmth but average/cool/fresh.

Edited August 11, 2015 by mushymanrob

[knocker]

wait until winter if you have a problem with people picking fi charts to get hopes up! if you think frostys summer bias is strong, you aint seen nothing yet!

 

 

 

 

That's very true. And if you .dare to utter a few words of common sense and downplay the nonsense the lynch mob will be on you in a flash baying for blood. Last year it was even suggested I was the sort of person who would visit children's wards just to tell them that Father Christmas wasn't real. What concerned me most was how did they know I did that?

[stainesbloke]

That's very true. And if you .dare to utter a few words of common sense and downplay the nonsense the lynch mob will be on you in a flash baying for blood. Last year it was even suggested I was the sort of person who would visit children's wards just to tell them that Father Christmas wasn't real. What concerned me most was how did they know I did that?

Lol

[Hocus Pocus]

I don't quite get how some knock others so called optimism when all they're doing is posting charts, which the last time I looked was the whole point in such a thread. It matters not what our preferences and biases are as the weather will continue to defy our attempts at mind control and simple wishes.

[knocker]

Looking forward to a mild and possibly wet winter.

 

[Seasonal Trim]

Deleted. Shouldn't have raised to it.

Edited August 11, 2015 by Ruufio

[William of Walworth]

I think I perceive a reason why I hibernate from these forums over the winter ...

[tempestwatch]

Looking forward to a mild and possibly wet winter.

Hi knocker, what role do you think El Nino play in our winter this year?

[cheeky_monkey]

Well he's been right for me, very dry summer with only a few wet days like today and consistently warm/humid, nothing has gone wrong this summer just peoples too high expectations like last winter which i thought was pretty decent snow excluded.

I think peoples expectations of winter and summer conditions have become so skewed in recent years that any thing other than cold and snow in winter and heat and storms in summer is seen as abnormal disgusting weather. Lets be honest changeable and mild is normal for this country all year round. This summer for me has been near perfect..very dry often sunny and relatively warm with low humidity and long may it continue.

[knocker]

Hi knocker, what role do you think El Nino play in our winter this year?

 

I'm afraid the answer to that is way above my pay grade. As far as I'm aware there are no direct attributions of weather types vis El Nino and the UK in winter. (see diagram) If you take the analog it would suggest a more Atlantic driven scenario which could suggest mild and wet. But at the end of the day, given the complications that are around at the moment your guess is as good as mine.

[Northern Sky]

I think we all know that come November the HLB we've seen since spring is going to rapidly disappear till spring comes round again.

[mushymanrob]

That's very true. And if you .dare to utter a few words of common sense and downplay the nonsense the lynch mob will be on you in a flash baying for blood. Last year it was even suggested I was the sort of person who would visit children's wards just to tell them that Father Christmas wasn't real. What concerned me most was how did they know I did that?

 

this place is far better in summer, especially now theres more people posting objective and informed, reasonable posts. to a large degree that goes out the window in winter when the fantasy cold murrchants sorry merchants try to please their devoted fans...

 

it would be an interesting excercise to read back and see who predicted what and compare it with what actually happened. a pound to a penny would bet on the objective, unbiased being the most accurate.

probably get told off now....

 

[Polar Maritime]

probably get told off now....

As much as i tend to agree.. Lets get back on topic, That is Model/Banter/Moans. And leave members posting styles to the individual's readers judjments. Edited August 11, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[summer blizzard]

Just a bit of fun but watch the surface cold develop over the next 16 days..

 

 

[knocker]

Knocker I'm wondering where you get that anomoly chart from?

 

Here you go pj

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/compare/

[Costa Del Fal]

Just a bit of fun but watch the surface cold develop over the next 16 days..

 

 

Yawn. Winter is so far away yet.

[mushymanrob]

hmmm..... autumns in the air early this morning, the chilly overnight temps and low sun are a reminder that summers nearly over.