Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Mokidugway]

The press is full of heatwave dog biscuits ,up here a weekend of 18 c wind and showers ,in a word CRAP..........

[mushymanrob]

wheres the bloody sunshine we were promised for today?... grrr

 

edit.... GRRRRRR

2015-08-07T09 00 00Z-2.png

 

well its not too bad now, not sunny but bright and muggy, that feels like summer and my lilies and buddlia respond by pumping out fragrance..

[Eugene]

Remarkable lack of rain this Summer here, endless warmth and humidity, definately turning into a very good summer, who needs endless 25C+ days, 22C feels roasting in prolonged sunshine.

[mushymanrob]

Remarkable lack of rain this Summer here, endless warmth and humidity, definately turning into a very good summer, who needs endless 25C+ days, 22C feels roasting in prolonged sunshine.

 

endless warmth?.... its been decidedly cool, weve had overnight frost risks even in july. 22c?... i wish! weve failed to beat 20c on many many days this summer, although it has been rather sunny.

[johnholmes]

as often is the case two posts that make one wonder how it can be so.

Eugene west Midlands and mushy east Midlands

here Doncaster, most of us are never quite sure which geographical location we belong in but for facts

Since June 1st, the start of official summer there has been 46 days of 20C or more and 15 days of 25C or more.

1 June to 7 August=68 days I think.

make of it what you will.

Edited August 7, 2015 by johnholmes

[J10]

A gorgeous summers day here with plenty of sunshine, pretty much all day. Yesterday was decent too.

 

However Wednesday was dreadful, so I fully understand frustration.

 

While Saturday looks set to follow today.

 

and Sunday looks set to follow Wednesday.

Edited August 7, 2015 by J10

[phil nw.]

Yes it's one of those Summers where conditions have differed day to day and very much north to south.

Here in the middle of England it's been quite dry with any rainfall quite shortlived expect for one Sunday a couple of weeks ago.

Certainly playing golf 3 times a week i have hardly needed a brolly or rain gear this Summer although a few days in late July required extra layers for warmth on early tee off times.

A very mixed season with a generally flattened Azores high allowing fronts to cross the UK from the Icelandic upper trough.Conditions quite decent on some days in the south but further north very changeable and sometimes quite unsettled.

In all honesty i can't see anything in the latest runs to offer much change to the overall pattern.

[ANYWEATHER]

That's what I'm thinking, washout Sunday and monday for north midlands, maybe a lull Sunday night

Yes, all I hope is that this cold front may at last give us a good soaking. Its been a headache for computer models for some days now,,,,  The Farmers and Growers around here are crying out for rain right now....

Edited August 7, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes, all I hope is that this cold front may at last give us a good soaking. Its been a headache for computer models for some days now,,,,  The Farmers and Growers around here are crying out for rain right now....

 

I'm hoping the opposite, that it misses here,

[Mokidugway]

I'm hoping the opposite, that it misses here,

couldn't agree more ,it can rain all it wants when I'm on holiday !!.

[Singularity]

Ah yes... temporarily forgot about the need to stay on topic! Forgive me, it's my first day   Plenty of other threads for other topics I see 

 

I am hoping that ECM and GFS are too keen to develop low pressure to our SE and lift it north. At the very least it could help if it stays trapped under the western flank of the high pressure over Scandinavia, though admittedly a sustained feed of heat and moisture could cause problems where it clashes with cooler air to the northwest.

[mushymanrob]

Yes, all I hope is that this cold front may at last give us a good soaking. Its been a headache for computer models for some days now,,,,  The Farmers and Growers around here are crying out for rain right now....

You really think farmers want rain now? Its harvest season, the last thing they want is rain. How many farmers do you know?

[Polar Maritime]

You really think farmers want rain now? Its harvest season, the last thing they want is rain. How many farmers do you know?

 

Yes Rob many have cut for hay again round here, Including myself.

[mushymanrob]

That's what I'm thinking, washout Sunday and monday for north midlands, maybe a lull Sunday night

Local forecasters on tv reckon not much rain sunday, more monday, cos pressures Quite high

[ANYWEATHER]

Local forecasters on tv reckon not much rain sunday, more monday, cos pressures Quite high

Nos Da

[stainesbloke]

Looks like quite a decent weekend here, Sat sunny hopefully and warm, Sun uncertain, possibly ruined by cloud but if we're lucky could stay clearer and hot. Most importantly it'll be warm with no vile freezing winds that have plagued so much of this year.

[mushymanrob]

Yes Rob many have cut for hay again round here, Including myself.

 

i guess it depends what you farm.... i admitt i was thinking of the arable farmers who are busy harvesting their rape, wheat, barley. i guess livestock farmers need rain for grass growth. so my sweeping statement was as inaccurate as 'anyweathers'.

[Polar Maritime]

i guess it depends what you farm.... i admitt i was thinking of the arable farmers who are busy harvesting their rape, wheat, barley. i guess livestock farmers need rain for grass growth. so my sweeping statement was as inaccurate as 'anyweathers'.

Just a small holding with a few sheep so no need for much, But the ground could certainly do with some rain now as many areas in the fields round here are parched. As long as it holds for the next few days which the Models suggest till its in I'll be happy ☺

Edited August 8, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[DavidHamble57]

as often is the case two posts that make one wonder how it can be so.

Eugene west Midlands and mushy east Midlands

here Doncaster, most of us are never quite sure which geographical location we belong in but for facts

Since June 1st, the start of official summer there has been 46 days of 20C or more and 15 days of 25C or more.

1 June to 7 August=68 days I think.

make of it what you will.

 

 

There's been a big east/west temperature gradient across the country no.1, and no.2 difference people feel the same conditions differently anyway. I would suggest though that anybody who has found this perfectly normal british summer too "humid" and uncomfortable is living in the wrong climate and really needs to think about relocating to Iceland or northern Norway. Seriously. Some poeple have to live in places like Singapore or Brazil, thats "Humidity".

 

Some of the trollish comments I see from certain members on here are rather akin to somebody living in Kuwait City exclaiming "It's been a bit on the chilly side this summer" when it failed to hit 50°C all July...

Edited August 8, 2015 by DavidHamble57

[pinkertonsurly]

Is it just me - or have BBC/Netweather/TWO forecasts been unusually inaccurate this year? I'm not complaining. Love the element of surprise.

[johnholmes]

Luckily Summer heralds nothing and we all ooze towards a lovely Autumn....shall I post a chart

 

perhaps one day you will post a constructive post with a balanced view rather than the same bias every time?

[Frosty.]

Luckily Summer heralds nothing

Heralds nothing? Actually it heralds a return of warm / very warm summery weather!

[Costa Del Fal]

As Summer peters out and those that say it was a UK wide lovely summer...well...JH I'll post the jma

monthlies for June July and now Aug....they present the facts ...Frosty you look for the best I don't knock you but this summer is looking normal...not like some predicted in early July as rinse repeat an temps hitting high 29 30....hasn't happened never mind

Neither has your fellow coldies who seemed adamant we would return to very wet conditions has happened either.

Bare in mind prolonged north westerly winds are NOT normal so June was not normal especially.

[johnholmes]

As Summer peters out and those that say it was a UK wide lovely summer...well...JH I'll post the jma

monthlies for June July and now Aug....they present the facts ...Frosty you look for the best I don't knock you but this summer is looking normal...not like some predicted in early July as rinse repeat an temps hitting high 29 30....hasn't happened never mind

 

so where are they then?

Are you referring to their predictions or summation of each month after the start of the next month.

confused as to what you mean.

that you have a cold bias is pretty obvious. I try to present an objective forecast when I post my thoughts using the 500mb anomaly charts.

[mushymanrob]

As Summer peters out and those that say it was a UK wide lovely summer...well...JH I'll post the jma

monthlies for June July and now Aug....they present the facts ...Frosty you look for the best I don't knock you but this summer is looking normal...not like some predicted in early July as rinse repeat an temps hitting high 29 30....hasn't happened never mind

 

but to be fare, frosty always posts charts that support totally what hes saying. posts that refer to the poorest possible outlook only appear to chose one chart to 'prove' their negetive spin, and overuse those smileys (which add nothing to the point being made).

as i see it, this summer has been one where ridging off the azores high was often predicted to become more of a feature as it developed into a proper displaced high over the uk - but its never developed that way and the ridges have all collapsed, failing to develop and produce us all a decent lengthy settled spell. frosty and others didnt have to look too hard to find numerous summery charts on nearly every run , it was there in front of our eyes! on many occassions.

those sceptical of the predicted pressure rises have been proven to be right in their scepticism, but on the other hand their alternative wet predictions too have failed to become reality.

looking at the models, i can see this pattern continuing, with 'spoiling rain' spells between more settled, dry, pleasantly warm, sunnier spells. no heatwave, no monsoon.

Edited August 9, 2015 by mushymanrob