Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[rain_shadow]

Just watched BBC world forecast: 50 C is the forecasted max temp for tomorrow for Baghdad - Insane. I think the little unsettled here will do for me although warmer unsettled is always better...

[Frosty.]

NO HE ISNT.... This really left trouser leges me off. You are misreprisenting what frosty says.

Frosty only posts what the charts are SHOWING.

Cheers mushy

[Harps]

Average is definitely the best word to describe the south east this summer, a generally pleasant but instantly forgettable summer up to now. The first few days of July the only stand out feature.

The most notable things for me have been the constant unsettled theme with cloud and wind almost every day and also the complete lack of thunder, the July 4th storm is the only time I've heard thunder in the past 12 months now which must be well below average for London.

Looking at current models there's no hint that early August will be any different, looks like we're firmly entrenched into this pattern for the summer

Edited July 30, 2015 by Harps

[cheeky_monkey]

Average is definitely the best word to describe the south east this summer, a generally pleasant but instantly forgettable summer up to now. The first few days of July the only stand out feature.

The most notable things for me have been the constant unsettled theme with cloud and wind almost every day and also the complete lack of thunder, the July 4th storm is the only time I've heard thunder in the past 12 months now which must be well below average for London.

Looking at current models there's no hint that early August will be any different, looks like we're firmly entrenched into this pattern for the summer

Had lots of thunder in west London more than last year that's for sure.. also hasn't been unsettled at all apart from the rain on Friday and Sunday just gone it has been remarkably dry.

[Harps]

Had lots of thunder in west London more than last year that's for sure.. also hasn't been unsettled at all apart from the rain on Friday and Sunday just gone it has been remarkably dry.

Well I'm in Ealing and haven't had a single thunderstorm all year apart from the 4th..? Apparently there was thunder overnight a couple of weeks ago but I slept through it.

By unsettled I mean that we've been in a mobile Atlantic flow all summer with a constant breeze and very few clear days. Most summers we at least get a brief spell dominated by high pressure but this year the best we've managed is a few 1-2 day plumes before a swift return to the Atlantic

[Chris K]

Plume..the buzz word of Summer even now being used at 22....where has this phrase come from? Spanish plumes at 35 yes but UK plumes seem to be even at 18!!!

Well it's more to do with the airflow and where it is sourced from rather than temps alone. E.g. A plume to me is a southerly flow drawing up from regions across the continent such as the Iberia/Africa/France etc, not just heatwave from Spain.

So in a way...yes we have seen a few plumes this summer, but they have tended to be short lived and mostly reserved for the SE quarter. These have regularly shown up in the models throughout the season too.

The Jet stream has been quite strong, carrying Low Pressure east too quickly and shunting any plumes away. If the Jet was weaker we may see more slack lows to our west causing more prolonged southerly airflow.

Edited July 30, 2015 by Chris K

[Milhouse]

Fair enough there will be some rain around this coming week but the way some people are talking about current prospects its like there hasnt been a pattern change at all. Gone is the cool, showery, autumnal conditions and its a much warmer and humid outlook, which i know itsnt to everyones tastes. But i just get the impression that unless we have a big fat high over us then we are somehow in an unsettled regime. Maybe those protesting that its unsettled can put a bit of meat on the bones of their summaries and say where and when its most likely to rain.

Plume..the buzz word of Summer even now being used at 22....where has this phrase come from? Spanish plumes at 35 yes but UK plumes seem to be even at 18!!!

 

We need a buzz word for the summer. Anyone remember last winters 'building blocks'

[Methuselah]

Fair enough there will be some rain around this coming week but the way some people are talking about current prospects its like there hasnt been a pattern change at all. Gone is the cool, showery, autumnal conditions and its a much warmer and humid outlook, which i know itsnt to everyones tastes. But i just get the impression that unless we have a big fat high over us then we are somehow in an unsettled regime. Maybe those protesting that its unsettled can put a bit of meat on the bones of their summaries and say where and when its most likely to rain.

 

We need a buzz word for the summer. Anyone remember last winters 'building blocks'

Upstream amplification?

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Have we been experiencing the effects of a stubborn Scandi vortex?  Will the pattern break before the end of "summer"?

Edited August 1, 2015 by Wildswimmer Pete

[Eugene]

Three fresher days and thats it, the cool nights were a joy to behold, now back to the monotony of humid nothing weather and people say this country is too cool.

[Eugene]

September will bring in the good weather, patience...

 

 

Try August 2nd.

[knocker]

Looking at the analogue 500mb anomaly chart for early winter it does appear to have the potential to precipitate an early onset of mass hysteria in the mod. thread. The toys could be flying out of the prams like missiles.

[Winter Cold]

Looking at the analogue 500mb anomaly chart for early winter it does appear to have the potential to precipitate an early onset of mass hysteria in the mod. thread. The toys could be flying out of the prams like missiles.

 

Hi Knocker

 

Was I reading the chart you posted yesterday correctly can you tell me? I saw it as a scandi high, pulling in an easterly with an atlantic low trying to push in from the west? It could be a perfect scenario, but sometimes I looked at it and it was hard to distinguish the dividing line. Maybe early winter will prove the fine line continues, as with the heat this summer, its not been far away at all!

[mushymanrob]

Three fresher days and thats it, the cool nights were a joy to behold, now back to the monotony of humid nothing weather and people say this country is too cool.

Theres all year for cool nights, its summer, any cool nights now are a bonus to you, bring on some warmth and humidity at least itll feel more like summer then autumn

[knocker]

Hi Knocker

 

Was I reading the chart you posted yesterday correctly can you tell me? I saw it as a scandi high, pulling in an easterly with an atlantic low trying to push in from the west? It could be a perfect scenario, but sometimes I looked at it and it was hard to distinguish the dividing line. Maybe early winter will prove the fine line continues, as with the heat this summer, its not been far away at all!

 

Roughly speaking that's correct but you shouldn't read it quite so specifically. HP tp to the NE and LP Atlantic.But keep in mind this is a very broad brush upper air analysis so even if something along these lines did occur there are still various options regarding the evolution of surface detail. I really only posted it out of interest so it will be interesting to see what does transpire. Worst case scenario some members could expire.

Edited August 2, 2015 by knocker

[Milhouse]

Theres all year for cool nights, its summer, any cool nights now are a bonus to you, bring on some warmth and humidity at least itll feel more like summer then autumn

 

Last week was like winter, getting into a cold bed having to huddle up to the covers to keep warm. Now i like that in winter, but in summer its an unwanted reminder that the house has cooled to such an extent due to the abnormally cool temperatures and lack of solar input.

[cheese]

I just don't get how anyone can complain about this weather being too humid. Humidity here now is 49%. In London it's 30%. In Birmingham it's 45%. How is that humid, combined with temps in the low-mid 20s?

[IanR]

well i am back taking the vitamin a and d supplements in the form of cod liver oil capsules, not going to get these essential vitamins from sunlight in these parts

[Milhouse]

well i am back taking the vitamin a and d supplements in the form of cod liver oil capsules, not going to get these essential vitamins from sunlight in these parts

 

It was only on the radio earlier that we arent gettting enough essential vitamin D from sunlight, but of course there are exceptions.

[Mokidugway]

Hard to watch but the jet pretty much the same till the end of the run ,then my hols ,thinking summers pretty much over for my neck of the woods ..

[mushymanrob]

It was only on the radio earlier that we arent gettting enough essential vitamin D from sunlight, but of course there are exceptions.

Im an exception, im nicely tanned as im outdoors a lot.

Its a glorious evening here at mushytowers, warm, lilies in full bloom and scent, beautiful.

[stainesbloke]

Hard to watch but the jet pretty much the same till the end of the run ,then my hols ,thinking summers pretty much over for my neck of the woods ..

Yep, so effing dreary, I'm fed up with this pattern and southerly tracking jet, yawn. Can guarantee the jet suddenly moving dramatically north come Oct. A couple of warm and sunny weeks in Aug is all I ask for. Shame I'll have to go to Spain to find them!

[Methuselah]

It's nae that bad: 2-3 days' 'nice' balanced by 2-3 days' 'garbage' isn't the end-of-the-world?

[Bradowl]

BBC going for weather coming in off atlantic long term with low to north and high to south, as usual south eastern areas will see best of any fine weather.

[Napplewh]

Any signs of good weather in September or October 2015?