Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Summer Sun]

I know it's right out in the depest depths of FI but have to say, the GFS 06z is one weird run, especially for early August! I can't say that I've seen such a strange pattern in the North Atlantic before. It seems like the jet stream has almost completely stopped:

 

0308.png Jet.png

 

The 06z does produce some strange runs at times it must be said

[BlueHedgehog074]

Does look a little odd that GFS 06Z towards the end. It's probably over-amplifying the pattern in the Atlantic.

Though not looking particularly encouraging on the longer range (8 to 14 day) 500mb NOAA anomaly chart for widespread very warm and settled conditions with a continued Scandinavian trough influence over the UK and some blocking to our West/North-West towards Greenland. Having said that, despite the cool-looking pattern over the UK, in any decent sunny spells, it could feel quite warm at times, most especially towards the South.

But hopefully, though, things will change for the better (especially for those of you to the North wanting to see much warmer and less disturbed weather). Personally would love to see one or two proper very warm sunny spells and further plume events before Summer goes into hiding. Enough time for this to happen still. One of those Summer's really that could do with a hot sting in its tail!

Edited July 18, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine

[Eugene]

Sorry Diagonal i see no sign of any sustained heat for the UK, i see a very cool period coming up to end July with some unusually cool nights, quite unusual to see such a cool pool of air setting up to our northwest in late July, i think August will end up cool before the inevitable warm and dry September, it's obvious this summer will end up nothing special, we've been lucky with the very brief plumes with no prolonged HP spells.

Edited July 18, 2015 by Eugene

[Milhouse]

Im hoping for a few modifications to the prospects for the end of the next week because at the moment its looking pretty awful. Having endured an almost raw piercing wind early on today who can like that stuff. Hopefully the rather weak areas of high pressure flirting with the UK can strengthen somewhat as we nearer the time.

[Mokidugway]

I have a feeling my summer will start at the end of August as I will be in California ..

[MP-R]

That plume that was aforementioned for the 29th, was it a northerly plume by any chance? Some cracking midwinter charts on the current GFS run. Make it January and we'd be talking the -10C isotherm widely over the UK with snow showers.

 

Alas it is July and it's looking disappointingly cool for most. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

That plume that was aforementioned for the 29th, was it a northerly plume by any chance? Some cracking midwinter charts on the current GFS run. Make it January and we'd be talking the -10C isotherm widely over the UK with snow showers.

 

Alas it is July and it's looking disappointingly cool for most. 

 

noticed on the last few runs, high pressure coming in for early Aug, deepest FI, but unusual for last few charts to be similar every run. but aware that GFS underestimates low pressure in FI

[MP-R]

noticed on the last few runs, high pressure coming in for early Aug, deepest FI, but unusual for last few charts to be similar every run. but aware that GFS underestimates low pressure in FI

 

Hoping this signal continues. I've got lots of things planned between July 25th and August 10th which require dry and warm weather - shouldn't be too much to ask in the height of summer. Last thing I need is my Brasilian family whinging about how cool it is, reminding me even more how pants our climate is.

[knocker]

Hoping this signal continues. I've got lots of things planned between July 25th and August 10th which require dry and warm weather - shouldn't be too much to ask in the height of summer. Last thing I need is my Brasilian family whinging about how cool it is, reminding me even more how pants our climate is.

 

Just remind them of the severe drought they have been having. Not that they will need reminding.

[Methuselah]

 aware that GFS underestimates low pressure in FI

Now I am confused?? I've spent that last twelve winters being reminded how GFS is always 'way too progressive in FI'??  

[MP-R]

Just remind them of the severe drought they have been having. Not that they will need reminding.

 

Lol, I regularly remind them of the week of low cloud and drizzle I had there in the height of their summer!

[stupotlee]

The weather can do what it wants, as long as it remembers the booking I made ages ago for good weather from BH weekend at the end of August for 2 weeks

 

Seriously though. It's not been absolutely terrible - I've managed to get my washing out most days, which is always a good thing. the wind over the last few days has really dry it quickly!

[mushymanrob]

The weather can do what it wants, as long as it remembers the booking I made ages ago for good weather from BH weekend at the end of August for 2 weeks

 

Seriously though. It's not been absolutely terrible - I've managed to get my washing out most days, which is always a good thing. the wind over the last few days has really dry it quickly!

 

yes indeed, its been good weather for grasscutting here in derby. plenty of breezy dry weather, not much rain but enough to keep the grass growing. the grounds dry and firm, grass amounts low, easier work for old mushy! lol and its looking like more of the same, no heatwave but no overly wet weather either.

[Eugene]

GFS 06z looks a bit erm different to the rest at t120

 

 

Compare with ECM and UKMO

 

 

3 models offering 3 different options just 5 days away

 

 

Exactly yet people getting hung up on early August charts, crazy.

[mushymanrob]

Exactly yet people getting hung up on early August charts, crazy.

 

why?... model discussion is about the models, and some of them go out to early august and as theres nothing real summery within the next two weeks, those of us who desire something hot dry and sunny have no other choice but to look well ahead. the differences at 5 days different runs are suggesting are not pattern changing, but detail tweeking.

besides, in 6 months time if we were having a mild winter would you be as critical to the masses looking into deep fi for cold?... no thought not!

[knocker]

Blimey that mountain torque.is full of surprises.

[Mokidugway]

Blimey that mountain torque.is full of surprises.

Jesus christ !!!!!!:0...

[stainesbloke]

Some very disturbed charts showing from this Friday onwards. A series of low pressure systems barrelling in over us, suppressing temps and levels of sun. Should give the rain starved south some much needed rain though. Disappointing all the same but again, high pressure shown in FI which is an encouraging trend for early Aug...

[Mokidugway]

Looking like game over in my neck of the woods ,if there's no improvement in the next 4 weeks ..as I'm out of the country for 3 weeks after that ...

Edited July 21, 2015 by Mokidugway

[MP-R]

Some very disturbed charts showing from this Friday onwards. A series of low pressure systems barrelling in over us, suppressing temps and levels of sun. Should give the rain starved south some much needed rain though. Disappointing all the same but again, high pressure shown in FI which is an encouraging trend for early Aug...

 

Don't need any more suppression of sun here lol, been quite a dull month so far already. Some proper rain wouldn't go amiss though, only had a few dribs and drabs. Let's hope most of it is at night.

[mushymanrob]

After yet another poor day, and with the prospect of a miserable start to next week and with no tangible sign of anything very warm and summery.... Im getting ready to throw the towel in on this years summer. Premature? Im no lover of late heat if it comes at the cost of high summer heat. My scented flowers are in bloom now, not in 3 weeks time.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

After yet another poor day, and with the prospect of a miserable start to next week and with no tangible sign of anything very warm and summery.... Im getting ready to throw the towel in on this years summer. Premature? Im no lover of late heat if it comes at the cost of high summer heat. My scented flowers are in bloom now, not in 3 weeks time.

 

yes early, we are still guaranteed a few warm days, 23C inbetween systems, a lot of days will feel warm, rather than mild, but I usually think, certainly over last few years, August does not produce hot spells, around 20th Aug, onwards days can feel like autumn, away from S/SE

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks like this vile cool pattern is going to infect much of northern and Western Europe away from Spain and Italy just in time for my trip away next week towards Germany and Holland and Slovenia.

[cheese]

After yet another poor day, and with the prospect of a miserable start to next week and with no tangible sign of anything very warm and summery.... Im getting ready to throw the towel in on this years summer. Premature? Im no lover of late heat if it comes at the cost of high summer heat. My scented flowers are in bloom now, not in 3 weeks time.

Most people don't care about that though - and most of us will be very happy with the prospect of a hot, sunny August, even if you're more concerned about your scented flowers blooming.

 

And statistically the 1st week of August is the warmest of time of the year so the hottest weather in early August is pretty much par the course..?

[Bogman]

Looks like this vile cool pattern is going to infect much of northern and Western Europe away from Spain and Italy just in time for my trip away next week towards Germany and Holland and Slovenia.

Lucky I'm off to sorrento then on Friday.