Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Eugene]

With Gibby hinting that north westerly winds could push the heat well away to south east next week and only 2 weeks left in July this will take us in to August which is last month of proper summer and can be quiet wet at times, so in a nutshell that could be it for this summer.

 

Roll on winter. 

 

 

Yeah this humid murk is beyond tedious, southwesterlies are dreadful at least northwesterlies are fresher though in July the lovely PM northwesterlies are hard to achieve with PM airmasses retreating northwards, roll on September when they start to dominate again to our west.

 

Summer is such a tedious season in more ways than one, at least the Premier League starts in August and things start to pick up.

[Mokidugway]

Strangly bright and sunny here for BBQ ,where did that come from !!!.

[IanR]

With Gibby hinting that north westerly winds could push the heat well away to south east next week and only 2 weeks left in July this will take us in to August which is last month of proper summer and can be quiet wet at times, so in a nutshell that could be it for this summer.

 

Roll on winter. 

roll in winter indeed, as long as its another mild and windy one    , then we can get it over with and be back into spring and summer again and start afresh  

[Mokidugway]

roll in winter indeed, as long as its another mild and windy one    , then we can get it over with and be back into spring and summer again and start afresh  

yep winter = crap .....

[Methuselah]

Strangly bright and sunny here for BBQ ,where did that come from !!!.

Must be hay fever.

[mushymanrob]

Yeah this humid murk is beyond tedious, southwesterlies are dreadful at least northwesterlies are fresher though in July the lovely PM northwesterlies are hard to achieve with PM airmasses retreating northwards, roll on September when they start to dominate again to our west.

 

Summer is such a tedious season in more ways than one, at least the Premier League starts in August and things start to pick up.

 

we must be polar opposites...lol... love summer hate footy!

[Milhouse]

As it stands the only meaningful rain in the next 5/6 days is set to cross the country on Thursday night. So even though temperatures will only be around average it is set to be an accepteble spell of summerlike weather. Average at this year means 19-23c so plenty warm enough not to need a coat.

[Don]

I also hope that heat gets shunted away south as I don't like excessive heat or high humidity. We don't need it to enjoy pleasant Summer weather IMHO.

Edited July 14, 2015 by Don

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please keep discussion loosely based around the Models.

 

Thanks, PM.

Edited July 14, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

Can we please keep discussion loosely based around the Models.

Thanks, PM.

Ok here goes, the gfs 12z is pure garbage, I really liked the 6z but the 12z is pish poor, as is the Gem. In summer I don't want to see cool limpet troughs stuck over the uk taking forever to fill, I want warm anticyclones and spanish plumes..rant over!!! Edited July 14, 2015 by Frosty.

[weatherguru14]

Am still waiting to see if the Netweather long range models of a  above average august temperatures and drier than average month comes to fruition..

Like the claim of July ending up something like 2003 or 2006..

Gfs charts are useless for more than 2/3 days a head. next week was suppose to be a plume. that's gone again..How netweather can predict august is going to be warm when  most charts struggle to get it correct for more than several days is beyond me.

The next few days are going to be decent enough. no heatwave.. Just typical summer weather. that's what the charts should be showing. not  30c one minute  and down to  15c the next..

[Frosty_wsm]

I also hope that heat gets shunted away south as I don't like excessive heat or high humidity. We don't need it to enjoy pleasant Summer weather IMHO.

After the miserable weather we've had the last few days I would gladly have the hot and humid weather back!

[mushymanrob]

Am still waiting to see if the Netweather long range models of a  above average august temperatures and drier than average month comes to fruition..

Like the claim of July ending up something like 2003 or 2006..

Gfs charts are useless for more than 2/3 days a head. next week was suppose to be a plume. that's gone again..How netweather can predict august is going to be warm when  most charts struggle to get it correct for more than several days is beyond me.

The next few days are going to be decent enough. no heatwave.. Just typical summer weather. that's what the charts should be showing. not  30c one minute  and down to  15c the next..

 

bib - thats not going to happen.

erm... you do realise that the gfs charts are predictive charts based on the most current data and are NOT always 100% accurate over 3 days ahead. thats the nature of predictions based on ever changing scientific data. NO model can predict with 100% accuracy more then 3 days ahead all the time.

 

[IanR]

summers are not what they used to be are they?  seems we get just occasional glancing blows from hot southerly plumes these days,  and recent augusts...  tut tut, what a sham,   I suspect another 'meh' one will materialise,

 

in the ninties augusts tended to be the best summer month , even if it was not sunny everyday there was a warmth that lasted well into the start into september,  even with atlantic sourced air,  

[mushymanrob]

so if the ops are around 30% accurate at t240, and the noaa anomalies are about 60% at t240...

does that mean when they agree (like they kinda do now) they are 90% accurate?

[johnholmes]

so if the ops are around 30% accurate at t240, and the noaa anomalies are about 60% at t240...

does that mean when they agree (like they kinda do now) they are 90% accurate?

not sure that 'logic' is correct mushy!

But it does suggest a pretty good probability of the GFS being close to reality.

[Mokidugway]

And what happend to ,air mass thunderstorms ???. Never get them here anymore ...

[mushymanrob]

not sure that 'logic' is correct mushy!

But it does suggest a pretty good probability of the GFS being close to reality.

He he, it was tongue in cheek though..

[mushymanrob]

it seems the potential for high pressure building and providing a decent spell of settled, sunny, warm, dry weather is decreasing after so many 'nearly' suggested evolutions have all failed to build into something desired.

its all looking  slightly below average and possibly becoming wetter then we have enjoyed of late.

[Buzz]

Sad to say that I have to agree - not looking good at all.

[stainesbloke]

Some pretty horrid GFS runs of late, cool, cloudy and windy weather often indicated. Brief plume event showing for the 29th of July which is the only interest, otherwise it's very poor for high summer.

Even this Sunday now looking grim after being shown as very warm and sunny just a day or two ago. Very tedious.

[knocker]

Your joking. What NW/SE divide?

Chart weatherbell

Edited July 18, 2015 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

Talk for a time was that August would start off on a settled note, GFS this morning gives us a straw to clutch

 

 

In the more reliable it looks distinctly average at best fairly typical weather just as the schools start and break up for the 6 week holidays

[mushymanrob]

Talk for a time was that August would start off on a settled note, GFS this morning gives us a straw to clutch

 

 

In the more reliable it looks distinctly average at best fairly typical weather just as the schools start and break up for the 6 week holidays

 

indeed... but until the noaa 6-14 day charts shift in favour of a positive over or near the uk, ill be noting this, but discarding it.

[conor123]

Of course the coolest, wettest days of the month are coming for my 3 days off next week after I already moved them back from this week thinking it would be poor (turned out Wednesday was best day of the summer sods law), Late July - End of August always poor then nice September usually.