Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[ANYWEATHER]

Usually when the continent us hot, we are too i.e 2013, 2006, 2003, 1995 and so on. Less hot in absolute terms but usually just as hot if not hotter relative to average.

It is certainly not unreasonable to expect some of their heat to move over us for more than one or two days as it has done in the past on countless occasions. Anyone who suggests otherwise is lying.

The Atlantic is our key weather driver. Yes plumes will come and go but the Uk will  be driven as always by the cold Atlantic....

[h2005__uk__]

I know it doesn't work like this, but it'd be nice if 'boring August' (judging by recent years) has become 'boring July' this year... and we'll get a great August.

[cheese]

The Atlantic is our key weather driver. Yes plumes will come and go but the Uk will  be driven as always by the cold Atlantic....

It's also the key in northern France's weather, ditto Western Germany, Netherlands, Belgium. Seems they get better weather than us anyway.

[Milhouse]

Given last weeks heat is still quite recent im not too disappointed with the current output. Even the good summers had spells like this. 3 weeks down the line if we havent seen another settled spell then it will be a different story.

[Cheshire Freeze]

What surprises me is that people seem genuinely shocked by the output? It was glaringly obvious it wasn't a stable period of hot weather....I said so before the event actually began and got shot down multiple times for it!

 

I don't think some people actually realised that I would have said exactly the same thing in winter if it was a transient toppler that was showing! It was the summer equivalent of a toppler (a potent one at that) in winter i.e the Azores high lingering to our S and a lack of northern heights.

 

From 26th June....

 

Completely agree, as I've said on the banter page it's just what I see unfolding infront of my eyes...all pretty text book so far. It's the same as trying to achieve a sustained cold period in winter without a stable HLB....it's possible to get a decent spell of winter weather without but you're relying on the pattern to keep reloading as many times as possible before the jet eventually crashes in.

 

As much as people seek heat, they can't be so blind as to not see the elephant in the room RE where we head after this plume event (taking into account potential reloads)??

 

I do get the impression that some on here think I'm here to wind people up but I'm genuinely not- I try to be as pragmatic as possible when looking at the information in front of me and in extrapolation of where we may be headed next. Unfortunately some people would disagree with me and say black was white for the sake of an argument. Taking aside hemispheric drivers I think I justified my assertions well enough in my previous post. It's getting fairly tedious to post on here at all tbh

Edited July 7, 2015 by CreweCold

[knocker]

As a matter of interest which text book would that be?

[Scorcher]

What surprises me is that people seem genuinely shocked by the output? It was glaringly obvious it wasn't a stable period of hot weather....I said so before the event actually began and got shot down multiple times for it!

 

I don't think some people actually realised that I would have said exactly the same thing in winter if it was a transient toppler that was showing! It was the summer equivalent of a toppler (a potent one at that) in winter i.e the Azores high lingering to our S and a lack of northern heights.

 

From 26th June....

 

Completely agree, as I've said on the banter page it's just what I see unfolding infront of my eyes...all pretty text book so far. It's the same as trying to achieve a sustained cold period in winter without a stable HLB....it's possible to get a decent spell of winter weather without but you're relying on the pattern to keep reloading as many times as possible before the jet eventually crashes in.

 

As much as people seek heat, they can't be so blind as to not see the elephant in the room RE where we head after this plume event (taking into account potential reloads)??

 

I do get the impression that some on here think I'm here to wind people up but I'm genuinely not- I try to be as pragmatic as possible when looking at the information in front of me and in extrapolation of where we may be headed next. Unfortunately some people would disagree with me and say black was white for the sake of an argument. Taking aside hemispheric drivers I think I justified my assertions well enough in my previous post. It's getting fairly tedious to post on here at all tbh

 

And what makes you think that you are correct already- after all the temperature in the NW was in the mid 20s as recently as Saturday, and Sunday was another warmish day. So we are only 2 days into this cooler spell if you look at it that way. Can you confidently predict what will be happening 5 days down the line? I'm not going to claim that I can.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Can you confidently predict what will be happening 5 days down the line? I'm not going to claim that I can.

 

No, not the intricate details of a daily forecast but it's more than possible to spot potential evolutions and general trends.

[ribster]

Never mind!

Doh! Apologies, I misread your post, your are correct of course!

[ribster]

im not wishing it, thats why i said 'insane' in the model thread. Seems i ruffled a few feathers. Was only pointing out what I thought was an unusual situation but some replies seemed to imply it wasnt so. Probably just showing my lack of experience.

I believe Mr. Hammond used the word 'unusual' in the countryfile forecast, referring to a ground frost up north. So would think you were fairly accurate in referring to it as such.

[Costa Del Fal]

What surprises me is that people seem genuinely shocked by the output? It was glaringly obvious it wasn't a stable period of hot weather....I said so before the event actually began and got shot down multiple times for it!

 

I don't think some people actually realised that I would have said exactly the same thing in winter if it was a transient toppler that was showing! It was the summer equivalent of a toppler (a potent one at that) in winter i.e the Azores high lingering to our S and a lack of northern heights.

 

From 26th June....

 

Completely agree, as I've said on the banter page it's just what I see unfolding infront of my eyes...all pretty text book so far. It's the same as trying to achieve a sustained cold period in winter without a stable HLB....it's possible to get a decent spell of winter weather without but you're relying on the pattern to keep reloading as many times as possible before the jet eventually crashes in.

 

As much as people seek heat, they can't be so blind as to not see the elephant in the room RE where we head after this plume event (taking into account potential reloads)??

 

I do get the impression that some on here think I'm here to wind people up but I'm genuinely not- I try to be as pragmatic as possible when looking at the information in front of me and in extrapolation of where we may be headed next. Unfortunately some people would disagree with me and say black was white for the sake of an argument. Taking aside hemispheric drivers I think I justified my assertions well enough in my previous post. It's getting fairly tedious to post on here at all tbh

Despite the cool charts I'm Still waiting for this very wet period you were confident would arise. Of course the jet would come through soon. You can never sustain such meridian aloft of last week for long.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Despite the cool charts I'm Still waiting for this very wet period you were confident would arise. Of course the jet would come through soon. You can never sustain such meridian aloft of last week for long.

 

Going very wet was always the worst case scenario but was a risk nonetheless given the sluggish nature of the jet and building continental heat at the time....thankfully we appear to be going down the less painful route (poss best case scenario of what was on offer) i.e settled SE and wetter NW. The 18z is better than the 12z for most of the country FWIW.

[stainesbloke]

It's also the key in northern France's weather, ditto Western Germany, Netherlands, Belgium. Seems they get better weather than us anyway.

'Us' in this case doesn't always include SE England; here, it is often a touch warmer in summer than the Netherlands and Belgium actually and we have a similar climate to N France, if a shade cooler. This is generally speaking, in plume scenarios there can obviously be much greater temp differences, which is why they can be a double edged sword. The quite large regional variations in climate in the UK mean the SE generally is the warmest in summer, often markedly so. Hence why I wouldn't live anywhere else in the UK, even here it's often too chilly for my liking.

Latest GFS seems to be quite a lot better to my eyes anyway, less of a NW influence thankfully, we've had more than enough of that rubbish this year!

Edited July 8, 2015 by stainesbloke

[mushymanrob]

What surprises me is that people seem genuinely shocked by the output? It was glaringly obvious it wasn't a stable period of hot weather....I said so before the event actually began and got shot down multiple times for it!

 

 

no... you got shot down, along with 'anyweather' for ignoring the potential for a hot spell when there was a predicted building hot pool over france and spain. you both ignored this and predicted a mobile atlantic. now if you are as pragmatic as you claim, you wouldnt have done that. the fact of the matter is that you were both proven wrong to ignore such a build up of heat on the near continent.

now i cannot recall ANY pro-heat post that suggested the hot spell was going to be a protracted spell. we all KNEW it wasnt likely because there was no data that suggested it would. it took 3 'breakdown' attempts to finally allow the atlantic back (weds night, fri night, sunday aft).

the anomaly charts didnt support a lasting hot spell, and they still dont. its all looking pretty 'average' with a mix of warmer and cooler days, much as knocker has outlined in the md thread. its not looking particually wet to me, and if it wasnt for friday nights storms rainfall totalls so far are low, and dont look like recovering to being on the particually wet side of average.

[Yarmy]

Looking at the underwhelming output, I think it's timely to give a little bump for Matt's post from April in the Strat Thread:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/page-72#entry3191664

 

Be interesting to see where we go from here. April update of the EC Seasonal and EUROSIP seasonal models, both of which did a decent job on winter, produce a rather interesting and unfavourable pattern for a good summer in that a -ve NAO pattern is signaled for the summer months with a +ve pressure anom to the north and north-west of the UK, which, overall, will signal a generally blocked regime but with the block being in completely the wrong place. There is little evidence that supports a more pronounced Azores high this summer and again the pattern is for more northern blocking, which, as we found out a few years ago, is not a good setup for summer!

 

It's notable that the exceptional heat at the start of July came from a plume rather than the Azores, so the above seems to have been a more than decent call on the overall longwave pattern (so far).

Edited July 8, 2015 by Yarmy

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Yarmy, A spot on broad brush musing there from Matt re EC & EUROSIP.

[Nouska]

The NOAA multi-model pages have some limited parameters for the Eurosip* model.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/archive/2015060800/current/IMMEtmp2m.html

 

Currently being updated for this month but the last run (June) looks to be rather accurate considering the disappointing charts currently on show for the north of the UK.

 

 

 

Some questions about SSTs in main model thread - outlook across all models is for cold anomaly to fade during summer but then reappear by late autumn - this would tie in with METO research regarding May temps being a useful indicator for winter NAO.

 

*

 

• International MME: The EuroSIP (European Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction) project is presently a collaboration of ECMWF, MeteoFrance, UKMet Office, and NCEP. Raw data from IMME is not available. IMME is not currently included in NMME, but is provided on the NMME webpage for informative purposes. More information on EuroSIP.

 

[Man With Beard]

One of the biggest features of this summer must be the north/south divide. For me, the last 6 weeks have been awesome here on the central southern coast - very little rain, lots of long sunny days and usually getting above 20C, and now regularly 22C/23C in my location. It seems for the north, though, it is a bit like a year without a summer, aside one day last week.

 

And it seems likely to continue that way. The two tables below show the GEFS 06Z 850hPa forecasts, ranked at each timeframe from the warmest members to the coolest. One is for London, the other is for somewhere in the Highlands. Worlds apart! Plenty of heat still a possibility down south, virtually no chance of heat up north.

 

(Anything above 10C could equate to 24C-28C ASL inland in sunny weather).

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=306&y=141&run=6&ext=fr&mode=0&sort=2

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=&y=&lat=58.016194331983804&lon=-5&run=6&ext=fr&mode=0&sort=2

Edited July 8, 2015 by rjbw

[cheese]

'Us' in this case doesn't always include SE England; here, it is often a touch warmer in summer than the Netherlands and Belgium actually and we have a similar climate to N France, if a shade cooler. This is generally speaking, in plume scenarios there can obviously be much greater temp differences, which is why they can be a double edged sword. The quite large regional variations in climate in the UK mean the SE generally is the warmest in summer, often markedly so. Hence why I wouldn't live anywhere else in the UK, even here it's often too chilly for my liking.

Latest GFS seems to be quite a lot better to my eyes anyway, less of a NW influence thankfully, we've had more than enough of that rubbish this year!

Paris is about 2C warmer than London in July and August, so definitely a noticeable difference. London's summers are more similar to Amsterdam and Brussels than they are Paris. The difference between Paris and London this is year is pretty massive - the continental heat that Paris has endured for over a week has only glanced the UK for 1-2 days.

 

And it's all relative, of course. I'd say the same about Newcastle or Carlisle - I'd find it hard living there because the summers are cooler than what I'm used to. I'm used to most summer days hovering around 21C-22C and I'd find Carlisle's 19C summers quite a shock. I can say the same in winter as well though - I like the fact that Leeds is more reliable for snow than most cities, and London hasn't had a snowfall for going on 2 years now!

[sparky1972]

OMG, i always look at hthe weatheroutlook 16 day forcast for a bit of a guide but oh how i hope it is wrong for the 18th of this month, daughter has 9 of her friends camping out in the garden[ keeps my house tidy, lol] and the forecast is 10c and cloudy, they better not think they are sleeping in my house, lol

[Cheshire Freeze]

no... you got shot down, along with 'anyweather' for ignoring the potential for a hot spell when there was a predicted building hot pool over france and spain.

 

Erm...no I didn't? Must be confusing me with someone else because never at one point did I say the hot spell wouldn't happen  In fact in a few of my posts I intimated that I was very much looking forward to the heat and storm potential.

 

From the 26th June (days before hot spell began...)

 

Yes....I've been quite open about the fact that I suspected we'd have a period of hot weather at some point before August. I don't think in any way it will be sustained as a mean summer pattern though and yes I still believe we'll end up with a wet, potentially very wet period.

 

Even with these hot charts you can see the N blocking in evidence...it has all the hallmarks of a poor set up thereafter i.e a warm continent and the potential for slow moving trough should pressure migrate westwards....flooding rains....(FI eventually gets to something akin to this for reference if you want to see what I mean)

 

and....

 

I've taken a look myself, the majority of the ensembles are bunched around the 15/16C 850s figure for here which suggests that some of these runs showing 20C nudging this far N maybe slightly optimistic. We'll see, but how often do we see something so potentially noteworthy affect the UK. I'd love to see some of these sizzling charts come to pass though because I love extremes and I certainly love thunder and lightning!

 

Where did I dismiss the hot spell there? I just said it wouldn't be sustained. A lot of the time it comes down to people actually misreading or simply not understanding the very simple things I'm saying.....No wonder some people have decided to no longer contribute to the forum.

Edited July 8, 2015 by CreweCold

[mushymanrob]

Erm...no I didn't? Must be confusing me with someone else because never at one point did I say the hot spell wouldn't happen  In fact in a few of my posts I intimated that I was very much looking forward to the heat and storm potential.

 Y

From the 26th June (days before hot spell began...)

 

Yes....I've been quite open about the fact that I suspected we'd have a period of hot weather at some point before August. I don't think in any way it will be sustained as a mean summer pattern though and yes I still believe we'll end up with a wet, potentially very wet period.

 

Even with these hot charts you can see the N blocking in evidence...it has all the hallmarks of a poor set up thereafter i.e a warm continent and the potential for slow moving trough should pressure migrate westwards....flooding rains....(FI eventually gets to something akin to this for reference if you want to see what I mean)

 

and....

 

I've taken a look myself, the majority of the ensembles are bunched around the 15/16C 850s figure for here which suggests that some of these runs showing 20C nudging this far N maybe slightly optimistic. We'll see, but how often do we see something so potentially noteworthy affect the UK. I'd love to see some of these sizzling charts come to pass though because I love extremes and I certainly love thunder and lightning!

 

Where did I dismiss the hot spell there? I just said it wouldn't be sustained. A lot of the time it comes down to people actually misreading or simply not understanding the very simple things I'm saying.....No wonder some people have decided to no longer contribute to the forum.

Hi cc... If ive misreprisented you then i apologise.

However i still dont agree with your 'wet potentially very wet' outlook, i dont think theres any indication that conditions are heading for a protracted period of above average rainfall.

[stainesbloke]

Paris is about 2C warmer than London in July and August, so definitely a noticeable difference. London's summers are more similar to Amsterdam and Brussels than they are Paris. The difference between Paris and London this is year is pretty massive - the continental heat that Paris has endured for over a week has only glanced the UK for 1-2 days.

 

And it's all relative, of course. I'd say the same about Newcastle or Carlisle - I'd find it hard living there because the summers are cooler than what I'm used to. I'm used to most summer days hovering around 21C-22C and I'd find Carlisle's 19C summers quite a shock. I can say the same in winter as well though - I like the fact that Leeds is more reliable for snow than most cities, and London hasn't had a snowfall for going on 2 years now!

Yes I'd agree that Paris is a degree or two warmer generally than London in summer. London in turn is usually a touch warmer than Brussels and more than a touch warmer than Amsterdam. Paris has held onto the heat for over a week whilst London had a few days, but nearly 37C in London is impressive! Those sort of temps will very rarely be recorded outside SE England. But don't forget that before the heat wave, NW Europe was just as chilly as us or more so!

My brother has lived in and around Paris for the last 20 years (til this Spring, when he moved). I've been over there so often in those years that I've gotten to know the climate well. It really isn't much different to where I live in the UK, a touch warmer in summer and a shade cooler in winter. In fact, London has had better snowfalls than Paris in the last 20 years.

As for today, London at 21C is currently warmer than Paris at 18C, Amsterdam at 17C and Leeds at 13C!

[Eugene]

More of a hot snap than a hot spell really.

[Bolt from the Blue]

The models are really quite poor tbh, was hoping the warmth would stick around for a bit but we're back to the nagging NW'erly wind, and as usual any hint of warmth in FI gets pushed East.