Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

We are truly into mid summer now and what a wonderful time of year it is with daylight almost at its max. The chilly nagging northwesterlies seem a long time ago now. It looks like staying pretty warm here now till next Monday, then a short cooler spell and after that there are signs that pressure and temperatures will be once again on the rise. We have been spoilt in the last 2 Julys and i hope this one is the same. Nothing worse than the light evenings being ruined by horrid autumnal like wind and rain.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Agree that stays hot now until Monday but cannot agree that signs are for temps to rise after mid week. All signs jet anomaly models NAO show a return to near normal temps with a flat jet bringing west to sw and sun an showers. Nothing sustained in terms of heat showing.

 

 

Near normal temps for a time before a pressure rise from the south, shown on both ECM and GEFS means which would lead to temperatures rising.

 

Reem2161.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk

So three warm days and a thunderstorm it is then. Not so sure playing football in 30c was a great idea!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.

So three warm days and a thunderstorm it is then. Not so sure playing football in 30c was a great idea!

In Somerset, we only had two hot days, only one of them was sunny, and no storm. So you did well :)

Edited by Rammie
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk

In Somerset, we only had two hot days, only one of them was sunny, and no storm. So you did well :)

Well I was generally speaking, but specifically here, one warm day, one hot day, one cloudy warm day. Storm is yet to happen, probably tomorrow night here. But at 22c here, tomorrow will be nothing to write home about, although should be a very pleasant day...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

Has anyone seen Gavin Partridge's recent videos? He seems to think the middle of July will be average but improving toward the end of the month. He reckons at the moment that August could be shaping up to be a pretty summery month. About time too if that happened - when was the last properly summery August?!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Has anyone seen Gavin Partridge's recent videos? He seems to think the middle of July will be average but improving toward the end of the month. He reckons at the moment that August could be shaping up to be a pretty summery month. About time too if that happened - when was the last properly summery August?!

 

'03 I would think, but I generally rate 2nd half of Aug as much cooler/coolest part of 'summer', and even hints of autumn in the air, esp after 25th or so

 

even aug 'o3 was coolish after 11th I think

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Has anyone seen Gavin Partridge's recent videos? He seems to think the middle of July will be average but improving toward the end of the month. He reckons at the moment that August could be shaping up to be a pretty summery month. About time too if that happened - when was the last properly summery August?!

 

03 I'd say which is when we hit 100F in kent

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham

After last weeks heat its back to average conditions now with the weather coming in off the Atlantic.

 

Though its possible I don't think we'll see anything like last weeks heat across country for remainder of this summer, they're usually a one off event.

 

We might see a few days with temps touching 30'C but I feel we won't see the 35'C across a large part of country like last week.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

'03 I would think, but I generally rate 2nd half of Aug as much cooler/coolest part of 'summer', and even hints of autumn in the air, esp after 25th or so

 

even aug 'o3 was coolish after 11th I think

 

I find late August to be interesting too, it's the first time of year when the nights can be dark and cold enough to remove any thoughts of summer. It's also the time of year when mentally, there are years in which my brain declares that Autumn has arrived. In 2010 and 2011 for example it was late August that my brain switched into Autumn mode due to the weather types and nothing warm on the horizon. 

 

Has anyone seen Gavin Partridge's recent videos? He seems to think the middle of July will be average but improving toward the end of the month. He reckons at the moment that August could be shaping up to be a pretty summery month. About time too if that happened - when was the last properly summery August?!

 

Since 2004 (warm and wet) or 2003 (hot and dry), the warmest August was 2013 at 0.7C above the 1981-2010 average. 

 

The bad Augusts must surely be statistically unusual because early August (at least) is supposed to be the warmest part of the year.

 

These 'bad' Augusts are actually the historical norm given most of them have been very close to average. 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2012 we no more than 0.3C away from average. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

Though its possible I don't think we'll see anything like last weeks heat across country for remainder of this summer, they're usually a one off event.

 

We might see a few days with temps touching 30'C but I feel we won't see the 35'C across a large part of country like last week.

 

What makes you think that?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

Common sense maybe. :D

 

It seems similar to declaring on 5th January that there won't be any more heavy snowfall (if there'd already been some), even though Europe is still very cold and there are signs that February could be a cold month. :closedeyes:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

What makes you think that?

 

Well perhaps is because we live in the Uk!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

Well perhaps is because we live in the Uk!

 

Yes, but I just think it's a bit odd to write something off based on that.

Edited by h2005uk
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

Yes, but I just think it's a bit odd to write something off based on that.

 

"Unlikely" Was the word used I think? And that seems pretty fair to me :) Or maybe not :D  " a one off"   then :oops:

Edited by DAVID SNOW
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

"Unlikely" Was the word used I think? And that seems pretty fair to me :)

 

"Thought it's possible I don't think" to be precise. I was just wondering if anything had generated that thought apart from the fact that the UK doesn't see that type of weather all the time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

 

Since 2004 (warm and wet) or 2003 (hot and dry), the warmest August was 2013 at 0.7C above the 1981-2010 average. 

 

 

These 'bad' Augusts are actually the historical norm given most of them have been very close to average. 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2012 we no more than 0.3C away from average.

But temperatures are only part to the picture, you cannot use temps alone to decide how good august is. Theres sunshine levels, rainfall too, both of which are crucial. After all, it could be very wet,very dull, but warm. Would anyone think that was a good summer month?

And i dont mean those who hate heat, i mean summer as in what we regard as summer type weather

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Exactly.. August 2008 might have been close to average but that's only because nighttime temps were kept high due to the ridiculous cloud & rain levels. Daytime temps were very disappointing - highest temp all month was 23C here.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

GFS is starting to look very 2010-esque with a ridiculously prominent NW-SE split rearing its ugly head, no idea why this idea keeps on recurring - can't it just bugger off? ECM is looking pretty rubbish too. Hopefully UKMO is closer to the money.

 

Sigh.. only in the UK can you watch the models and pray that summer will remain. In most other countries it's pretty much a certainty. :(

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

The models are particularly uninspiring for the foreseeable. :closedeyes:

 

Can anyone remember - how far in advance did the models predict last week's heat? Just wondering about their performance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

The models are particularly uninspiring for the foreseeable. :closedeyes:

 

Can anyone remember - how far in advance did the models predict last week's heat? Just wondering about their performance.

 

I think it was 'spotted' at nearly 10 days out.

 

The models show  an average summer set up for the UK as a whole for the next 10 days :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

GFS is starting to look very 2010-esque with a ridiculously prominent NW-SE split rearing its ugly head, no idea why this idea keeps on recurring - can't it just bugger off? ECM is looking pretty rubbish too. Hopefully UKMO is closer to the money.

 

Sigh.. only in the UK can you watch the models and pray that summer will remain. In most other countries it's pretty much a certainty. :(

I'm sure many in different parts of the globe cant wait for summer to recede. It does not look that bad to be truthful certainly not a washout today for instance has been rather nice with sunshine in low 20's.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm sure many in different parts of the globe cant wait for summer to recede. It does not look that bad to be truthful certainly not a washout today for instance has been rather nice with sunshine in low 20's.

it's relative Dan ,rain here since lunchtime ......
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...