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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

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mhielte Enthusiast

mhielte

Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley
Posted

The heat seekers can have this one but I don't want to hear so much as a whimper from them in winter if we get the chilly equivalent :rofl:

 

Hey I swing both ways so I'll still be here in winter when the easterlies set in :D

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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted

Yes....I've been quite open about the fact that I suspected we'd have a period of hot weather at some point before August. I don't think in any way it will be sustained as a mean summer pattern though and yes I still believe we'll end up with a wet, potentially very wet period.

 

Even with these hot charts you can see the N blocking in evidence...it has all the hallmarks of a poor set up thereafter i.e a warm continent and the potential for slow moving trough should pressure migrate westwards....flooding rains....(FI eventually gets to something akin to this for reference if you want to see what I mean)

 

h500slp.png

 

It could be the case that this is the transitional period but I s'pose it's not a bad one to face...

 

Essentially you're riding your luck with a mean high placed out NE because given the path of the jet stream i.e NW-SE you're just waiting for a slight increase in energy to scoop that high over the top of the trough and in towards the Greenland locale....which is what I think the eventual end game will be. Anyhoo, might aswell enjoy what is progged at present!

 

Mark my words on this one if you'd like though....this will be a flash in the pan spell....maybe ala Dec 2010 but shorter. Look at the differences between now and during the middle of a more sustained spell like '76..

 

Rrea00119760626.gif

 

Notice the low heights over Greenland which we don't have this time; the polar profile is the opposite in truth. Without these lower heights to the N/NW of us a protracted spell like '76 is totally out of the equation. You can see with the '76 evolution you essentially had the jet headed SW-NE in axis with low heights locked in over Greenland. The Azores high reinvigorated time and time again, reinforcing the heights over the UK...once again the direction of travel mirroring the jet SW-NE.

 

 

 

I'd put a lot of money on the middle third of summer being a lot wetter.

 

Hard to believe you're still pushing this, I could have said the same about any summer, ie. "there will be a heatwave before August", is probably likely to happen in some capacity in most years, and "there will be a very wet period", well you've got 3 months to be right about it at some point!

 

It means very little if it happens after a record-breaking July! Not saying it's definitely going to be, but it will be one of the warmest starts to July on record looking at the charts- perhaps even warmer than '76 for a short period at the start of the month. If northern blocking produces conditions like we're about to see next week, I'll take it every day of the summer! No evidence of anything wet for some considerable time...

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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

Yes....I've been quite open about the fact that I suspected we'd have a period of hot weather at some point before August. I don't think in any way it will be sustained as a mean summer pattern though and yes I still believe we'll end up with a wet, potentially very wet period.

 

Even with these hot charts you can see the N blocking in evidence...it has all the hallmarks of a poor set up thereafter i.e a warm continent and the potential for slow moving trough should pressure migrate westwards....flooding rains....(FI eventually gets to something akin to this for reference if you want to see what I mean)

 

h500slp.png

 

It could be the case that this is the transitional period but I s'pose it's not a bad one to face...

 

Essentially you're riding your luck with a mean high placed out NE because given the path of the jet stream i.e NW-SE you're just waiting for a slight increase in energy to scoop that high over the top of the trough and in towards the Greenland locale....which is what I think the eventual end game will be. Anyhoo, might aswell enjoy what is progged at present!

 

Mark my words on this one if you'd like though....this will be a flash in the pan spell....maybe ala Dec 2010 but shorter. Look at the differences between now and during the middle of a more sustained spell like '76..

 

Rrea00119760626.gif

 

Notice the low heights over Greenland which we don't have this time; the polar profile is the opposite in truth. Without these lower heights to the N/NW of us a protracted spell like '76 is totally out of the equation. You can see with the '76 evolution you essentially had the jet headed SW-NE in axis with low heights locked in over Greenland. The Azores high reinvigorated time and time again, reinforcing the heights over the UK...once again the direction of travel mirroring the jet SW-NE.

 

 

 

I'd put a lot of money on the middle third of summer being a lot wetter.

 

Yes....I've been quite open about the fact that I suspected we'd have a period of hot weather at some point before August. I don't think in any way it will be sustained as a mean summer pattern though and yes I still believe we'll end up with a wet, potentially very wet period.

 

Even with these hot charts you can see the N blocking in evidence...it has all the hallmarks of a poor set up thereafter i.e a warm continent and the potential for slow moving trough should pressure migrate westwards....flooding rains....(FI eventually gets to something akin to this for reference if you want to see what I mean)

 

 

 

It could be the case that this is the transitional period but I s'pose it's not a bad one to face...

 

Essentially you're riding your luck with a mean high placed out NE because given the path of the jet stream i.e NW-SE you're just waiting for a slight increase in energy to scoop that high over the top of the trough and in towards the Greenland locale....which is what I think the eventual end game will be. Anyhoo, might aswell enjoy what is progged at present!

 

Mark my words on this one if you'd like though....this will be a flash in the pan spell....maybe ala Dec 2010 but shorter. Look at the differences between now and during the middle of a more sustained spell like '76..

 

 

 

Notice the low heights over Greenland which we don't have this time; the polar profile is the opposite in truth. Without these lower heights to the N/NW of us a protracted spell like '76 is totally out of the equation. You can see with the '76 evolution you essentially had the jet headed SW-NE in axis with low heights locked in over Greenland. The Azores high reinvigorated time and time again, reinforcing the heights over the UK...once again the direction of travel mirroring the jet SW-NE.

 

 

 

I'd put a lot of money on the middle third of summer being a lot wetter.

London had an average high of 26C in June, 26C in July and 25C in August in 1976 - that hasn't been repeated since I doubt it ever will. I think very few people are looking for a repeat of that summer - and even fewer people have suggested that it's an even remote possibility. We are, however, making references to July 2006 and August 1995.

 

It might be very wet later in the summer - or not. There is no model output right now that indicates that to be the case - and your thoughts appear to be based largely on ifs, buts and hunches.

 

But, as ever, time will tell.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Hard to believe you're still pushing this, I could have said the same about any summer, ie. "there will be a heatwave before August", is probably likely to happen in some capacity in most years, and "there will be a very wet period", well you've got 3 months to be right about it at some point!

 

It means very little if it happens after a record-breaking July! Not saying it's definitely going to be, but it will be one of the warmest starts to July on record looking at the charts- perhaps even warmer than '76 for a short period at the start of the month. If northern blocking produces conditions like we're about to see next week, I'll take it every day of the summer! No evidence of anything wet for some considerable time...

 

Scorcher you asked me a question, I merely provided a detailed reply as to why I think the way I do. It was clear from the very start of this month we'd have a very warm, potentially hot, spell to contend with owing to the way things were panning out with the pressure patterns and the increasing (at the time) Spanish heat. I have also thought for some considerable time we'd have a very wet spell of weather this summer. Infact I remember having a personal messaging session with Jordan (Backtrack)  saying the same thing.

London had an average high of 26C in June, 26C in July and 25C in August in 1976 - that hasn't been repeated since I doubt it ever will. I think very few people are looking for a repeat of that summer - and even fewer people have suggested that it's an even remote possibility. We are, however, making references to July 2006 and August 1995.

 

It might be very wet later in the summer - or not. There is no model output right now that indicates that to be the case - and your thoughts appear to be based largely on ifs, buts and hunches.

 

But, as ever, time will tell.

 

No it's based on what I see unfolding infront of my eyes. It's all pretty text book as far as I'm concerned. Obviously I may be proved wrong...fair play if that's the case, I'll hold my hands up.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Given the Pacific/US pattern i do buy the high around Scandinavia although the low is further west than i expected. 

 

Given that pressure remains robust over Greenland through the spell and the jet NW-SE i tend to agree that eventually (unless we get a TS/Hurricane mixing things up) we'll go back to a proper cyclonic pattern once the Jet picks up however there's no real telling how long that will take. 

 

All i can say with certainty is the next 6-10 days look good for the heat lovers.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Scorcher....just for you....from the end of May I have found this quote from myself when talking about the best we could hope for over the coming weeks

 

 ''a potential scenario (which may be the best we can hope for) whereby HP anchors to the E/NE with the troughing just to our west allowing a (potentially unstable) southerly flow''

 

Remind you of owt? I still stand by this assertion that there is nothing that can be sustained at present. I do take offence to the suggestion that I work on 'hunches' as Cheese tried to make out.

 

Oh and the 18z GFS tonight shows you what can happen when you have a plume built on shaky foundations.

Edited by CreweCold
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Slightly 'better' 00Z for me who isn't a lover of heat, still hot of course 30C on wednesday, but thur and fri much better at 25C, then Atlantic seems to break through Saturday, to an even better 22C

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Here comes the next GFS run, fingers crossed it's an upgrade!

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
  • Popular Post
Posted

Here comes the next GFS run, fingers crossed it's an upgrade!

 

William................you are still young enough to turn your life around. Others I'm afraid are beyond redemption.

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

William................you are still young enough to turn your life around. Others I'm afraid are beyond redemption.

What are you trying to say?

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Sweatyman Seasoned

Sweatyman

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Popular Post
Posted

What are you trying to say?

William it was really nothing!
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Evening thunder Experienced

Evening thunder

Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
Posted

It's interesting that now some models are moving away from anything prolonged in terms of proper heat, the BBC 5-10 day forecast which I believe must come from the Met Office ensembles is the hottest yet, with a mean of 32C on Thursday and still 30C on Saturday, with 29/28 after that and easterly surface winds... suggesting no break-through of any Atlantic air.

 

Apparently the top end of possible temps from the 4th-6th is 39C.. probably a bit too extreme 

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

moaning about not being able to sleep if its too war?

well you cant say you havnt been warned its coming! you have time to prepare, buy a fan, or something! :p

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Author
Posted

The models are certainly..

 

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cheeky_monkey Maestro

cheeky_monkey

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Posted (edited)

moaning about not being able to sleep if its too war?

well you cant say you havnt been warned its coming! you have time to prepare, buy a fanor something! :p

trouble is fans dont work as all they do is push warm around they dont cool the air...you need air con for that..or take a luke warm shower before bed Edited by cheeky_monkey
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Eugene Accomplished

Eugene

Posted
Posted (edited)

Wow what a massive upgrade since i last checked the models tuesday from cool northwesterlies to very hot southeasterlies, thats what makes the UK's weather so exciting, it's unpredictability, notice some already moaning about heat before it's even started. :D

Edited by Eugene
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Rammie Enthusiast

Rammie

Posted
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
Posted

what are the chances of temps in the south of England next Friday, being lower than the Friday just gone?

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

moaning about not being able to sleep if its too war?

well you cant say you havnt been warned its coming! you have time to prepare, buy a fan, or something! :p

 

wet clothes i wear in the evenings, does help

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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted

trouble is fans dont work as all they do is push warm around they dont cool the air...you need air con for that..or take a luke warm shower before bed

Fans work perfectly for me, plus those mobile air con units are very effective and not expensive. Cold showers are a cheap option too! It's going to be warm for a few days, not months, I do wish people would just try to enjoy it, the chilly days will be here soon enough.

Glad GFS isn't too shabby and all other models keeping the hot theme, wonderful SUMMER weather at long last.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

trouble is fans dont work as all they do is push warm around they dont cool the air...you need air con for that..or take a luke warm shower before bed

Dont agree.... In corfu 9 years ago the complex only had a number of fans, we had to wait until one became available and trust me.... Itmade a huge difference!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

By this time next week, the prospect of a few 'freezing-cold days' at 27C will look like a Godsend!

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