Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[summer blizzard]

A quite dreadful prospect if, like me, you dislike and find hot humid weather difficult to tolerate. I'm certainly hoping for a down grade and no repeats for the remainder of summer. If we had dry continental heat those type of temperatures are more tolerable, but the humidity is stifling.

 

I agree. The nights will be horrid too. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

gfs precip charts may not be accurate and still FI, but last few runs see precip get no where near here, I was hoping for massive storms? just bone dry

[Gibby]

temps.png

 

 

I have a wedding in Central Paris on July the 4th and I'm becoming increasingly concerned that no-one is taking these high temps seriously. Obviously they won't be 45/46, more like 35/36 but my family have very pale, typical English ruddy skin, and they do not seem to be taking heed of my concerns :/

UV levels won't be greater because it's hotter but I concede it will be hard to keep sensitive skin covered under such temperatures. High UV factor Sunscreen a must I think.

[daveinSB]

UV levels won't be greater because it's hotter but I concede it will be hard to keep sensitive skin covered under such temperatures. High UV factor Sunscreen a must I think.

 

Factor 50 should do it, but I'm more concerned about stubborn elderly relatives who want to 'enjoy the sun' :/

[mushymanrob]

i dont think ive ever seen so much action in the md thread in summer... not even in previous heatwaves !

its great!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

i dont think ive ever seen so much action in the md thread in summer... not even in previous heatwaves !

its great!

 

Summer seems more popular than winter/liked more here on netweather and generally, and with increased members as years go on,

 

I am in minority liking winter better, and think this forum more exciting in winter

[h2005__uk__]

Where's the website where you can look at tables of the temperatures being predicted by the different ensembles? I'm sure I had the page bookmarked but its gone!

[Weather-history]

i dont think ive ever seen so much action in the md thread in summer... not even in previous heatwaves !

its great!

I would have thought this is the last sort of thing you would want? Being outdoors etc.

That's the irony, sometimes it can be too extreme to enjoy.

[Methuselah]

Not yet up to 1976's sixteen consecutive 32s but, as the Springsteen song goes: Betty Swollocks is Coming to Town!

[mushymanrob]

Summer seems more popular than winter/liked more here on netweather and generally, and with increased members as years go on,

 

I am in minority liking winter better, and think this forum more exciting in winter

I dont think you are in a minority, there might be a lot of interest in the coming heat currently but a blizzard in winter and theres ten times the number of interested fans.

[mushymanrob]

I would have thought this is the last sort of thing you would want? Being outdoors etc.

That's the irony, sometimes it can be too extreme to enjoy.

I tolerate heat, heat doesnt bother me, getting hot and sweaty - no problem. I just drink plenty and really enjoy cooling off in my pool.

[Methuselah]

I dont think you are in a minority, there might be a lot of interest in the coming heat currently but a blizzard in winter and theres ten times the number of interested fans.

I think that this may be different, mushy...It could be the biggest heatwave in years!

[starstream]

Well It's made me stick my nose back in, when I don't normally bother till Sept and the coldies come out of hibernation.

Although honestly, the prospect of severe heat is a bit scary, as today has been draining enough, although it's cooled down significantly now.

[Nights King]

I would have thought this is the last sort of thing you would want? Being outdoors etc.

That's the irony, sometimes it can be too extreme to enjoy.

 

I love the heat in the summer myself but problem I find is once a heatwave ends you feel cold when back to normal summer temperatures of high teens an early twenties.   

[Weather-history]

I tolerate heat, heat doesnt bother me, getting hot and sweaty - no problem. I just drink plenty and really enjoy cooling off in my pool.

I must have misunderstood something, I thought you worked as a gardener for a living,

Edited June 26, 2015 by Weather-history

[Daniel*]

i dont think ive ever seen so much action in the md thread in summer... not even in previous heatwaves !

its great!

I love it too, the main reason why I love Winter season is in the fact that this forum is alive the whole community pulses when prospect of snow and sub zero temperatures are being modelled. I'm happy to report I'm seeing some of this presently, which is wonderful. Such extremes from sub zero days to 90F days both on the opposite spectrum are very intriguing to many. They interest me and will continue to do so.

[Winter Cold]

I love it too, the main reason why I love Winter season is in the fact that this forum is alive the whole community pulses when prospect of snow and sub zero temperatures are being modelled. I'm happy to report I'm seeing some of this presently, which is wonderful. Such extremes from sub zero days to 90F days both on the opposite spectrum are very intriguing to many. They interest me and will continue to do so.

 

I completely agree with you Daniel. Its very interesting indeed. Its fun to see what might happen next week and say we were part of it. This forum is great when its buzzing!

 

Its definately best in winter as you say, its fantastic on here but its nice to see some activity and excitement in the mod thread now too

[knocker]

For those that keep reiterating 'bring on extreme heat' a gentle reminder that the 2003 heatwave caused 15,000 excess deaths in France, Italy and Portugal alone.

 

The highest temps in  the UK were on August10th

 

38.1 Kew, Royal Botanic Gardens Greater London

37.9 Aldenham School Hertfordshire
37.9 Heathrow Airport Greater London

37.8 Wisley Surrey

37.7 Northolt Greater London
37.6 St. James's Park Greater London
37.6 London Weather Centre Greater London

37.5 Greenwich Observatory Greater London

37.4 Hampstead Greater London
37.4 East Mailing Kent
37.3 Cavendish Suffolk
37.1 Gestingthorpe Essex

37.0 Northwood Greater London

[mushymanrob]

I must have misunderstood something, I thought you worked as a gardener for a living,

You misunderstood nothing.

The only time heat is a problem is when theres no rain and grass browns off. I lose income, but i can absorb that now. I much prefer too hot to too cold. Cant stand being cold, but i can, as i said, tolerate heat. And i like heat.... So bring it on! Youll never see me moan about heat.

[The Enforcer]

My take on heat is that if you require sunny and dry weather in the summer (or spring or autumn for that matter) then 20-25C is sufficient to tick that box. There doesn't need to be a further 15C on top of that. It is like the winter equivalent of wishing for a foot of snow and then getting another three foot on top of it.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The heat seekers can have this one but I don't want to hear so much as a whimper from them in winter if we get the chilly equivalent

[Scorcher]

The heat seekers can have this one but I don't want to hear so much as a whimper from them in winter if we get the chilly equivalent

 

Are you still going for your Greenland High/Northern Blocking scenario?? 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Are you still going for your Greenland High/Northern Blocking scenario?? 

 

Yes....I've been quite open about the fact that I suspected we'd have a period of hot weather at some point before August. I don't think in any way it will be sustained as a mean summer pattern though and yes I still believe we'll end up with a wet, potentially very wet period.

 

Even with these hot charts you can see the N blocking in evidence...it has all the hallmarks of a poor set up thereafter i.e a warm continent and the potential for slow moving trough should pressure migrate westwards....flooding rains....(FI eventually gets to something akin to this for reference if you want to see what I mean)

 

 

It could be the case that this is the transitional period but I s'pose it's not a bad one to face...

 

Essentially you're riding your luck with a mean high placed out NE because given the path of the jet stream i.e NW-SE you're just waiting for a slight increase in energy to scoop that high over the top of the trough and in towards the Greenland locale....which is what I think the eventual end game will be. Anyhoo, might aswell enjoy what is progged at present!

 

Mark my words on this one if you'd like though....this will be a flash in the pan spell....maybe ala Dec 2010 but shorter. Look at the differences between now and during the middle of a more sustained spell like '76..

 

 

Notice the low heights over Greenland which we don't have this time; the polar profile is the opposite in truth. Without these lower heights to the N/NW of us a protracted spell like '76 is totally out of the equation. You can see with the '76 evolution you essentially had the jet headed SW-NE in axis with low heights locked in over Greenland. The Azores high reinvigorated time and time again, reinforcing the heights over the UK...once again the direction of travel mirroring the jet SW-NE.

 

 

 

I'd put a lot of money on the middle third of summer being a lot wetter.

Edited June 26, 2015 by CreweCold

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The heat seekers can have this one but I don't want to hear so much as a whimper from them in winter if we get the chilly equivalent

 

trouble is, miles more likely hot spell in summer, than cold spell in winter

We can't anyway. As soon as one of us even dare to mention the word "mild" in winter, we get shot by the coldie brigade.

 

I'm looking forward to this spell anyway. Some proper southerlies after this dreary, tedious north-westerly rubbish we've had since the end of April. Bring it on!

 

take it you are a snow hater, and a lover of 9C windy/wet, grey dark drizzly crap

[I remember Atlantic 252]

A snow hater? Pretty much. A lover of 9C wet and windy? Not necessarily. My ideal winter pattern is a February 1998-type set-up, even though it's as rare as hens teeth. It was last seen in February 2008 and very briefly in February 2012.

 

Anyway, before I lead this topic further and further off topic I'll return to the models, which look brilliant and continue to get better and better.

 

don't mind a feb '98 setup, but prefer by miles cold and snow, Dec '10 by miles over Feb '98, but Feb '98 by a long way over a Feb '14