Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Nick L]

lol @ the downgrade. heat lovers will be mad

 

Have you even looked at the 12z?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

lol @ the downgrade. heat lovers will be mad

 

not a heat lover, but disagree with downgrades? 0n GFS it's mighty hot, especially Wed and Fri, UKMO though could that be the start of a backtrack

[Summer Sun]

Downgrades? no downgrades for large parts

 

[Captain Shortwave]

So we have;

UKMO - Pretty standard plume event with the low thirties possible in the south east

GFS - A strong plume followed by an even stronger plume with temperatures approaching the mid-thirties in the south.

GEM - The hottest run I have ever seen with the July temperature record seriously at risk on that run with the heat persistent in intensity.

 

Still a while to go until we find out our fate, that said we have to remember that only two days ago we were looking at next week being pretty normal under a mixed west to south west flow. Things have certainly changed for hotter, it is just a question of how hot and how long the heat will stay for.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

think I would prefer UKMO version, especially if we get decent storms

[h2005__uk__]

As we get ever closer to next week, it seems the models are in agreement of a plume of some sorts with temps widely in the high 20s and 30C+ in the south-east.

 

I was expecting any serious downgrades to have happened by now, so I'm quietly confident that we should see at least 30C hit - probably in the south-east - sometime next week. If not on Tuesday/Wednesday - as originally forecast - then later in the week.

 

 

[cheese]

The GFS 06z run was showing a high of 31C on Friday here - now it shows 23C. Granted, it shows scorching conditions for the SE, and I don't expect any of you to care what the weather will be like up here while something potentially very interesting unfolds in front of your very eyes.. but please, don't mock me when I express my dissatisfaction with what is an obvious downgrade for my neck of the woods - and for a lot of others as well. I can't bring myself to get excited by the prospect of 36C in Kent when it's only 23C here - a perfectly pleasant temperature but totally unremarkable.

 

Maybe things will change by the 18z - who knows - but this current run isn't that great for here.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Thurs 2nd, looks very thundery on 12Z ECM, 2 little low's, and maybe fresher away from the SE

[linarite]

The GFS 06z run was showing a high of 31C on Friday here - now it shows 23C. Granted, it shows scorching conditions for the SE, and I don't expect any of you to care what the weather will be like up here while something potentially very interesting unfolds in front of your very eyes.. but please, don't mock me when I express my dissatisfaction with what is an obvious downgrade for my neck of the woods - and for a lot of others as well. I can't bring myself to get excited by the prospect of 36C in Kent when it's only 23C here - a perfectly pleasant temperature but totally unremarkable.

 

Maybe things will change by the 18z - who knows - but this current run isn't that great for here.

agree - though tbh 23C would count as remarkable after the dross we've had in the NW since April

[knocker]

Eat your heart out punters 105F in france

Chart weatherbell

 

 

[stainesbloke]

The GFS 06z run was showing a high of 31C on Friday here - now it shows 23C. Granted, it shows scorching conditions for the SE, and I don't expect any of you to care what the weather will be like up here while something potentially very interesting unfolds in front of your very eyes.. but please, don't mock me when I express my dissatisfaction with what is an obvious downgrade for my neck of the woods - and for a lot of others as well. I can't bring myself to get excited by the prospect of 36C in Kent when it's only 23C here - a perfectly pleasant temperature but totally unremarkable.

 

Maybe things will change by the 18z - who knows - but this current run isn't that great for here.

Wouldn't worry at all at the moment. It's a week away, might as well be next July lol. I'm sure there'll be plenty of flip flopping with regards to the finer details. Just hoping that by Mon the charts are still showing a decent hot spell and not completely plume less and back to chilly NW winds!

[Bradowl]

I think we'll end up with the usual 3 hot days and then a thundery breakdown.

[SizzlingHeat]

I think we'll end up with the usual 3 hot days and then a thundery breakdown.

Definately agree. Shame as yesterday was showing something much more prolonged. Theres always next year lol

[Bristawl Si]

I go to the Med and/or Canaries about four times/year and like the heat and sun.

But when it comes to the UK i cant stand anything over 25/26c because normally, after a day or two, it gets too humid and clammy.

Off to Kefalonia on Tuesday so i'll be glad i'm not in the UK for any plume that arrives.

[Scorcher]

The GFS 06z run was showing a high of 31C on Friday here - now it shows 23C. Granted, it shows scorching conditions for the SE, and I don't expect any of you to care what the weather will be like up here while something potentially very interesting unfolds in front of your very eyes.. but please, don't mock me when I express my dissatisfaction with what is an obvious downgrade for my neck of the woods - and for a lot of others as well. I can't bring myself to get excited by the prospect of 36C in Kent when it's only 23C here - a perfectly pleasant temperature but totally unremarkable.

 

Maybe things will change by the 18z - who knows - but this current run isn't that great for here.

 

Weatheronline, which bases its forecasts primarily on GFS runs I believe, is showing 31C for Manchester next Friday and 37C for London. Amazing.

[mushymanrob]

Definately agree. Shame as yesterday was showing something much more prolonged. Theres always next year lol

You seriously believe that we will only get three days then nothing until year?

This is just the pre-cursor, i expect a proper hot spell later in the month.

[Costa Del Fal]

Not a bad 18z run again. Rather similar to the 12z if a little further east again which is the main concern. Not at all surprised Friday 3rd is now looking a bit more realistic. Despite the pressure Pattern looking similar to the 12z, the ensembles showed the 12z was probably a bit at the high end of things so the 18z is probably about in the Middle Of the pack.

Note Tuesday 30th now looks hot. Quite high confidence in this now. My birthday too so looks like an excellent day!

Overall though 18z fairly similar to the 12z just this time an ops which probably lies a bit closer to the mean of the 12z ensembles thus more realistic.

Edited June 25, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[NorthYorksWeather]

33c is the record high in York, could be challenged looking at that chart.

[knocker]

En Passant

 

ECMWF upgrade in early 2016: Determ: 16 km->9 km. Ensemble: 32 km->16 km. Numerous DA, physics, numerics upgrades

[cheese]

I have never ever seen heat of this intensity before! I almost think it's too extreme to be true.

 

viewimage.pbx.png

A much better run this morning for widespread heat - 33C was last recorded here in August 1990 so would be unusual to say the least.

[Guest]

Its unusual to see such brutish warmth advected so far north, usually the hottest conditions and highest 850's come north in early August. The stronger sun in June usually delivers a greater 17/18C difference in surface temps and 850s which is why June heatwaves only need 15C uppers to deliver 32C where as the same 15C uppers in early August might only devlier 29/30C. Next week has the potential to delvier the best of both worlds if it can come together, the only stumbling block for the really coastal areas in the south east the chilly channel.

[Winter Cold]

En Passant

 

ECMWF upgrade in early 2016: Determ: 16 km->9 km. Ensemble: 32 km->16 km. Numerous DA, physics, numerics upgrades

 

That sounds good knocker. Lets hope its a better upgrade since the last one definately made it worse didnt it. All the crazy amplification in winter giving us false hope etc..... lets hope theyve fixed it!

[Smiler1709]

Does make me chuckle when I read people saying the 6z gfs is a downgrade on the 0z 'with highs of ONLY 33-34c!!!!' .

What world do these dreamers live on? 33-34c is roasting for uk values. The word 'ONLY' should never be used in these circumstances lol.

[picog]

I have never ever seen heat of this intensity before! I almost think it's too extreme to be true.

 

viewimage.pbx.png

A quite dreadful prospect if, like me, you dislike and find hot humid weather difficult to tolerate. I'm certainly hoping for a down grade and no repeats for the remainder of summer. If we had dry continental heat those type of temperatures are more tolerable, but the humidity is stifling.

[daveinSB]

 

These are fun to look at, but for the sake of the casual observer, these are not to be taken seriously. I don't think any credible chart suggests 40C could be reached. GFS temps, though far from infallible, are a much better guide.

 

I have a wedding in Central Paris on July the 4th and I'm becoming increasingly concerned that no-one is taking these high temps seriously. Obviously they won't be 45/46, more like 35/36 but my family have very pale, typical English ruddy skin, and they do not seem to be taking heed of my concerns :/