Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[SLAMMER]

yeah my main moan is there is nowhere on this site to tell us with no knowledge what is going to happen in the next few days.  On the model discussion its always whats going to happen next week.  Its rather frustrating.

[Methuselah]

yeah my main moan is there is nowhere on this site to tell us with no knowledge what is going to happen in the next few days.  On the model discussion its always whats going to happen next week.  Its rather frustrating.

Why would you want someone 'with no knowledge' to tell you anything, SLAMMER?

[SLAMMER]

i'm the one with no knowledge and would appreciate a section where those that know more about these things can tell us what is likely to happen in the more reliable timeframe, ie, next 2 or 3 days.

[Methuselah]

i'm the one with no knowledge and would appreciate a section where those that know more about these things can tell us what is likely to happen in the more reliable timeframe, ie, next 2 or 3 days.

Warmer and more humid; but you'll know far more about your local conditions than I...I spent a month in Ceredigion back in 2012, but never got to understand the local conditions...

[stainesbloke]

Haha, well with all the amazing charts of the last couple of days rapidly vanishing and reverting to boring mediocrity, am very grateful to be off to Spain next week. Can't believe how quickly things change. Must be the cold Atlantic?

[Methuselah]

Haha, well with all the amazing charts of the last couple of days rapidly vanishing and reverting to boring mediocrity, am very grateful to be off to Spain next week. Can't believe how quickly things change. Must be the cold Atlantic?

The rain in Spain???

[Sweatyman]

Haha, well with all the amazing charts of the last couple of days rapidly vanishing and reverting to boring mediocrity, am very grateful to be off to Spain next week. Can't believe how quickly things change. Must be the cold Atlantic?

must be Britain more like.

[Captain Shortwave]

Not sure if the model output is bad, or if everyone is in one of those "The GFS is always right" moods 

 

ECM shows a modest plume event, the UKMO looks okayish, the GEM is mental, the JMA actually is close to the GEM solution, only the GFS looks pretty poor going into next week.

[mushymanrob]

i'm the one with no knowledge and would appreciate a section where those that know more about these things can tell us what is likely to happen in the more reliable timeframe, ie, next 2 or 3 days.

Your local tv will be best for that

[Mokidugway]

As I will be getting pi**ed in the fields of Avalon this week I'll be mostly looking at the sky for my forcast from now on !!!!..

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Whatever the situation, certainly if things take more of a swing towards the GEM, then that will be as close to record breaking as you can get! Doubt it will happen, but it has been defiant in recent days!

[Hotspur62]

I must admit that the Models seemed to have moved away from a potential heatwave next week to just average(maybe slightly above in the South) in the space of 48 hours. It is like in Winter when hopes for Cold weather coming in from the East appear but then just as quickly disappear and stay the other side of the North Sea.I for one don't want excessive heat as I work outside and anything above 25 degrees is tough going. I also sympathise with those using trains,buses and tubes as it is not a lot of fun doing that either when temps get over 80f as air conditioning is not as good as it should be in a country like the UK.It can stay in the 18-23 degree range for the next 3 months which will be very pleasant indeed.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I must admit that the Models seemed to have moved away from a potential heatwave next week to just average(maybe slightly above in the South) in the space of 48 hours. It is like in Winter when hopes for Cold weather coming in from the East appear but then just as quickly disappear and stay the other side of the North Sea.I for one don't want excessive heat as I work outside and anything above 25 degrees is tough going. I also sympathise with those using trains,buses and tubes as it is not a lot of fun doing that either when temps get over 80f as air conditioning is not as good as it should be in a country like the UK.It can stay in the 18-23 degree range for the next 3 months which will be very pleasant indeed.

The JMA and GEM show an absolute peach.

ECM, NAVGEM and the UKMO sit on the fence.

It's only really the GFS that is being the Lone Ranger in this one at the moment.

[Hotspur62]

The JMA and GEM show an absolute peach.

ECM, NAVGEM and the UKMO sit on the fence.

It's only really the GFS that is being the Lone Ranger in this one at the moment.

I have looked on my BBC ap for next 10 days and the temp doesn't go above 22 degrees on any one day.I think the UKMO proved during last winter that they were pretty accurate when other models were going for more extreme temps. Of course there are going to be times when they will be wrong so time will tell I suppose.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I have looked on my BBC ap for next 10 days and the temp doesn't go above 22 degrees on any one day.I think the UKMO proved during last winter that they were pretty accurate when other models were going for more extreme temps. Of course there are going to be times when they will be wrong so time will tell I suppose.

Yeah. At times I think the beeb always keep it watered down, just so they don't end up with a scrambling of egg on their face! Many times over the last couple of years they have underestimated temps quite often. Or only upgrade them at short notice.

[Nouska]

The JMA and GEM show an absolute peach.

ECM, NAVGEM and the UKMO sit on the fence.

It's only really the GFS that is being the Lone Ranger in this one at the moment.

 

I could offer a tentative thought that the GFS is purely responding to its new MJO projection. It has broken from the consensus and is modelling an amplified route into 5/6 - this is very UK trough dominated - as modelled tonight. If it is correct in going it alone, better things await from phase 6.

 

[Hotspur62]

Yeah. At times I think the beeb always keep it watered down, just so they don't end up with a scrambling of egg on their face! Many times over the last couple of years they have underestimated temps quite often. Or only upgrade them at short notice.

Agree. Just saw the LR outlook on BBC News 24 and Matt Taylor said there was "a small chance" of excessive heat and even if it did hit the UK it would only be the SE that was affected. They have learnt from past experience to go on the conservative side of things lol

[stainesbloke]

What a difference a day makes, 00z GFS run goes back to heat and storm potential with high pressure to our E or NE, something not seen for quite some time. More flip-flopping than a fish out of water! Like this run much better than yesterday's shockers.

[AWD]

That trough looks a little to close for comfort to our shores IMO.

Could be some very wet weather in the west if we have stalling fronts/hot air etc.

[cheese]

This chart is so nice.. I could stare at it all day. However, I'm pretty certain 20C 850hpa temps have never reached this far north, let alone Scotland, so chances are it won't happen.

 

[Guest]

Well an unusually rapid back-track towards a plumetastic midweek next week. Still 5-7days out so extreme caution needed and the margin of plume or no plume is still only a few hundred miles here or there. Still I'm sure this mornings ECM run is more enough to get Nathan Rao on the front of tomorrows Express claiming its going to be 100f all next week. 

[Guest]

This chart is so nice.. I could stare at it all day. However, I'm pretty certain 20C 850hpa temps have never reached this far north, let alone Scotland, so chances are it won't happen.

 

 Its a great looking chart isn't it? But it also highlights the likelihood of it coming off, that 20C isotherm is the one and only push of hot on the entire chart which must cover 25million square km.

[Methuselah]

 Its a great looking chart isn't it? But it also highlights the likelihood of it coming off, that 20C isotherm is the one and only push of hot on the entire chart which must cover 25million square km.

Indeed it is. Just looking at it's giving me prickly heat!

[Costa Del Fal]

Yes a superb 6z thus far. But with rapid changes since yesterday I can't and won't believe any of this until within 72 hours.

Tamara thinks this change of tune by the GFS is down to the model playing catchup with atmospheric tendencies the others had already latched onto. Let's hope this is correct.

[mushymanrob]

well... (cherry picked chart but one that illustrates a good few days).

heat1.gif

an outlier?....

the 00z might be a little progressive in suggesting this pretty hot evolution. but the noaa anoms over the last several days were having non of the quick flattening out and a return to westerlies after a breif hot day next tuesday.

the noaa have consistently suggested this pattern for next week

heat2.gif

which to me suggests a euro-ridge, mid atlantic trough. a pattern that these charts expect to not be a breif affair but last several days. true the latest 8-14 suggest a weakening of the euro-ridge, but not really supporting the recent op runs which suggest a controling trough to our north by later next week.

so whilst i think the 00z is over emphisisning the possible pressure build to our east, i think previous runs from both the gfs and ecm have under estimated it, as per what the noaa anomaly charts have consistently suggested.

interesting times and one that may prove pivotal to the rest of summer.

 

idiot..... this was supposed to be in the model discussion thread....