Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[mushymanrob]

of course people are going to moan from a imby pov... whats the point in moaning or cheering weather miles away that doesnt effect you?

[Mokidugway]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JUNE 19TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across the UK will weaken as troughs of Low pressure cross East over the UK tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some showers in places.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow doggedly remaining rather unseasonable in both position and strength at times through the next few weeks often blowing across the UK from West or NW to East or SE. The trajectory does change to more of a SW to NE axis later in the second week.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a gentle shift into somewhat more changeable conditions across the UK albeit the conditions bringing these conditions are slack and ill defined day to day as only shallow troughs drift across most parts at times with scattered showers and outbreaks of rain in places. Later in the period a more concise drift into breezier and unsettled weather under Atlantic Low pressure looks possible for a time.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a very similar pattern today wih the same shallow airflow pattern next week gradually intensifying into a more pronounced pull of Atlantic Westerlies in Week 2 with some dry and bright spells in between for all areas. 

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters all show the likelihood that winds will be blowing from between West and North in two weeks time with somewhat changeable conditions for all with occasional oubtreaks of rain and temperatures no great shakes for late June.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows a flat pattern next week with a lot of influence from High pressure just to the South of the UK with a lot of dry weather as a result but with the risk of slow moving showers at times too, perhaps most likely towards the North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex array of weak troughs crossing the UK from the NW or West at times, each bringing their own version of more cloud and occasional rain or showers as they pass with some dry and bright weather for all too in between.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM  GEM also shows High pressure largely clinging on especially to the South where a lot of dry and sometimes quite warm weather prevails with just the risk of a few showers at times. In the North more changeable conditions are indicated but by no means a washout here either.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows a lot of fair weather across the UK as synoptics remain slack with relatively light winds some showers but still with a lot of dry weather too when it will feel quite warm in the light winds and sunshine especially over the South

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning is also less unsettled looking  though in its latter stages it does show many areas falling under the influence of Atlantic Low pressure and while the South remains escaping the worst of this the North could see some more appreciable rainfall.

 

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows very similar synoptics to the 1o Day operational chart to today so I would suggest that this morning's release later will show little overall difference to last night's offering.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today seem to have shifted back somewhat to less influence from Low pressure affecting the South next week with somewhat less definition in the more general Low pressure previously shown in the second weektoo.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.8 too. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 86.6 pts with GFS at 83.5 pts and UKMO at 83.0 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.3 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 20.8 pts to 19.2 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS Slightly busy this morning so just a quick appraisal of the runs this morning and in general they reflect a somewhat better picture again with less domination from Low pressure once we get through the messy array of troughs affecting the UK early next week. High pressure looks to be holding on for dear life across Southern Britain from most output this morning with more of North/South split likely through week 2 when things could become warm and humid across the South in largely dry weather while the North sees the greatest chance of rain and showers then. So while there is the risk of a shower almost anywhere next week a lot of dry weather will largely supercede the effects of this with temperatures pleasant enough for late June in the South and while the North may see more in the way of wind and rain in Week 2 the South looks set fair with a warm SW feed likely..   

 

Next update from 08:00 Saturday June 20th 2015

with glasto looming some more positive news ..

[Ravelin]

Even by your standards you've excelled yourself here Richard. The Victor Meldrew of the forum. It would be interesting to see what Richard's most frequently used words have been over all his posts. I Imagine the words 'awful', 'ghastly' and 'revolting' could be the top 3!

 

Living in the same neck of the woods as Richard I can fully understand his angst, it truly has been dismal weather wise recently for the time of year. We could probably put up with it if we got the odd decently sunny and warm weekend, but the few, and I mean few, decent days we've had in the past two months have all been mid-week. Another poor weekend forecast too, and nothing better in view beyond.

[cheese]

Exactly you constantly moan about the weather IYB in every thread across this forum as though that's what it is like everywhere...so I thought I would tell everyone IMBY its been far from crap

No, I don't - stop putting words into my mouth. When I complain about the weather, I never make the assumption that it's the same everywhere - and if anything stress the point that good weather in the south does not equal good weather everywhere, as we have seen the past two days.

 

Besides, your idea of 'good' is not universal, hence why I've seen people from your neck of the woods (Essex) complaining about how poor summer has been thus far - and it has been below average there as well, so no wonder.

Edited June 19, 2015 by cheese

[matty007]

This weather is becoming a big joke. 

 

Okay, I have know worse spells of weather but would struggle to recall another year with so little proper warmth. If we actually do get one warm day, it comes with cloud and 20mph wind. Which brings me to my next point -

 

This has to be without doubt the windiest year I've ever known. Everyday seems to feature a constant annoying wind that completely irritates you and dulls any warmth we do have. I honestly don't think we are going to get a real heatwave this year and July will take a similar note to what we have now. 

 

In terms of a proper BBQ day, the only one we have had in my opinion was in April. That was actually sunny, and had a low wind. ONE day up to June! I would consider that pathetic. 

 

All I ask is we lose that incessant wind, and actually get a bit of sustained HP giving at least a few calm, and sunny days at around 25c. That can't be too much to ask for can it? 

Edited June 19, 2015 by matty007

[IanR]

The last time Q3 saw all 3 months below average (July-Sep) was 08.

The last summer with all 3 months below average (Jun-Aug) was 11.

The last May-Jul period was 1996 (12 and 97 had months bang on average).

 

The answer to your May-Aug question though was all the way back in 1987.  

thanks for that, its very rare then for all four months to be below , less so for the main 3 summer months,  so if all 4 happen this year, it would be quite something since 1987 in our so called warming times,  and we are half way there , interesting time ahead 

[on the coast]

Another annoying cool cloudy and windy day. Wouldn't be so bad if the Sun could get out, just seems a relentless cloud fest all the time.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Another annoying cool cloudy and windy day. Wouldn't be so bad if the Sun could get out, just seems a relentless cloud fest all the time.

 

yeah, only the UK can have lousy weather off this setup, everywhere else would be warm sunny and little wind

[seaside 60]

Blimey its almost worse in here than in winter with no snow lol...

At least its dry and not soaking wet every day.

[knocker]

it's officially been quite a good summer as Royal Ascot has had four sunny balmy days.

[Captain Shortwave]

We can only dream...

 

 

Well at least we have seen a potential 90F chart on the model output

Edited June 19, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Mokidugway]

We can only dream...

 

dream1.pngdream2.png

lol.png

 

Well at least we have seen a potential 90F chart on the model output

lol !!!...

[Costa Del Fal]

Models are being persistent with an end of June potential hot spell!

[Bradowl]

I see the prolonged heatwave is still on horizon like its been all summer.

Glad I've gone to Tenerife for a couple of weeks for some proper summer weather.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I'm so glad that the winds seem to be shifting around into the south-west next week. it should finally bring us (my area especially) some more summer-like temperatures and clear away all of this cold, cloudy, drizzly garbage that we've had since the end of April.

 

Bring it on!

 

agree, but a chart posted by mushymanrob somewhere, showed wednesday PANTS!!!!!!!!!!

[Captain Shortwave]

In no way should be taken in any way apart from a bit of fun

 

The 06z ensembles have again produced some off the scale synoptics in terms or 850s and surface temperatures. This would be a mid-thirties chart for the south east with high twenties/ low thirties likely elsewhere.

 

Next week does look better with temperatures pushing up to average or above in most places.

Edited June 20, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[summer blizzard]

Looking at the anomalies in the Pacific and US around day 10 I'd be looking for pressure to build both in the Atlantic and Scandinavia with a trough over Europe.

So look for winds from an easterly quadrant but it could be a nice pattern if it develops.

..

Actually the chart above has the trough in the Atlantic rather than Europe but if you shift that trough well east while leaving the high alone then its not a million miles away.

..

Of course, anomalies do change and I could be wrong.

[Eugene]

The only thing going bang here on July 4th will be the ex pat americans fireworks.

[MP-R]

In no way should be taken in any way apart from a bit of fun

 

The 06z ensembles have again produced some off the scale synoptics in terms or 850s and surface temperatures. This would be a mid-thirties chart for the south east with high twenties/ low thirties likely elsewhere.

 

Next week does look better with temperatures pushing up to average or above in most places.

 

Incredibly attractive good-looking pretty pretty please!!

[Mokidugway]

Incredibly attractive good-looking pretty pretty please!!

lol, goes off to spend euro lottery win :0...

[Milhouse]

Liking the look of the models tonight. Finally a taste of proper summer. i.e warm right through the day, pleasant evenings and mildish nights.

[Captain Shortwave]

Hmm how long until one of the operationals throws a monster plume scenario?

GFS control 

 

GEM control

 

Personally this is a fingers crossed moment that we can develop this into a possible trend as we get towards the end of June.

Edited June 20, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[stainesbloke]

Well surprise surprise any plume-fantasy gone on overnight GFS runs leaving us in a mainly W-NW pattern. Signs of the Azores high ridging in but we know how easy that is to get eroded...hopefully won't be too chilly. ECM similar but looks warmer at the end of its run.

Edited June 21, 2015 by stainesbloke

[Captain Shortwave]

Well surprise surprise any plume-fantasy gone on overnight GFS runs leaving us in a mainly W-NW pattern. Signs of the Azores high ridging in but we know how easy that is to get eroded...hopefully won't be too chilly. ECM similar but looks warmer at the end of its run.

The one major change next week is the alignment of the jet as the Atlantic ridge finally collapses into Europe, this will improve matters as now very ordinary charts will deliver temperatures into the low to mid twenties as warmth from the south/south west will be quite commonplace as weak fronts pass to the north of the UK. That said it would be nice to see that Atlantic trough sharpening off to allow some proper heat to push north from Iberia.

The GFS again showing a high of 25/26C on Friday

Edited June 21, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[stainesbloke]

The one major change next week is the alignment of the jet as the Atlantic ridge finally collapses into Europe, this will improve matters as now very ordinary charts will deliver temperatures into the low to mid twenties as warmth from the south/south west will be quite commonplace as weak fronts pass to the north of the UK. That said it would be nice to see that Atlantic trough sharpening off to allow some proper heat to push north from Iberia.

The GFS again showing a high of 25/26C on Friday

You never know, it's a step in the right direction as you say. Hopefully not too much annoying infill to spoil things!