Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Yarmy]

While I haven't been following things assiduously, it seems like the UKMO op has been struggling recently. The ridging toward Greenland/Iceland that the other models picked up has finally started to appear. The stats seems to back this up to with it lagging in 4th place:

 

 

Generally, the outlook is all a bit meh. Not dreadful, but the paddling pool remains in the shed.

[Sweatyman]

All this after the BBC forecasters saying that for most places, if you didn't get any meaningful rain from last weekends low, you probably weren't getting any for the rest of June?

complete nutters how can they say a thing like that!should keep their traps shut in future

[davehsug]

complete nutters how can they say a thing like that!should keep their traps shut in future

A bit harsh? The general outlook was very different this time last week, or even last weekend. We seemed set for a lengthy spell of high pressure in charge, rather than the disappointing fare we are seeing now, that has the usual misery-merchants salivating. Just goes to show that you can never trust anything more than a few days ahead. Hopefully things can change again!

[weatherguru14]

they should get the forecast correct when it comes to giving people hope of  a decent end to  June.. when you see images of dried up riverbeds and "warming up" in a forecast.. and then reality strikes? why use the images and words of warming up??Just give an impression not something that resembles  a decent  couple of weeks  going into July.. ITS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN...

[Polar Maritime]

Just a reminder.. Can we please use this thread for Model Based chat, There are other threads for BBC discussions, Thanks.

[mushymanrob]

or the other thing is it just toys with us as it did during winter,,,after flirting resetting itself

 

BFTP

Absolutely.

Im guilty of suggesting the summer will be one of two extremes, which was rather stupid, ofcourse we are more likely to get an average-ish middle ground pattern then an extreme.

[Scorcher]

I think many here are looking, as always, for outstanding summer charts and some are getting disappointed by their absence.

 

The GFS tonight is not that bad at all- okay it's a mixed bag and it's not 1976 standard or even 2013, but there will be plenty of nice warmish days if the run comes off, like today. Again, not outstanding but very usable and very pleasant. It's certainly not 2007 esque, with the pattern looking fairly mobile to me- I also think any heights rises over Greenland will be short lived.

[cheese]

From a user on TWO:

 

3. In fact, the strength of the anomalies goes like this:

1. Cold winter
2. Mild winter
3. Cool/cold autumn
4. Warm/hot summer
5. Warm Spring
6. Warm Autumn
7. Cool summer
8. Cold spring

 

So at least a warm summer is more likely than a cooler summer. Should give us hope anyway. -

Edited June 16, 2015 by cheese

[mushymanrob]

I think many here are looking, as always, for outstanding summer charts and some are getting disappointed by their absence.

 

The GFS tonight is not that bad at all- okay it's a mixed bag and it's not 1976 standard or even 2013, but there will be plenty of nice warmish days if the run comes off, like today. Again, not outstanding but very usable and very pleasant. It's certainly not 2007 esque, with the pattern looking fairly mobile to me- I also think any heights rises over Greenland will be short lived.

From my pov, we are overdue a long hot summer. Ive not lost work through drought for nine years now, thats the longest gap between dry summers in my 42 year working life. Hence i thought this year could be the one, and it still might.

[Scorcher]

From my pov, we are overdue a long hot summer. Ive not lost work through drought for nine years now, thats the longest gap between dry summers in my 42 year working life. Hence i thought this year could be the one, and it still might.

 

Yes quite right, but all the same I'd rather have an average one than a 2007 style washout. A hot August is massively overdue.

[Milhouse]

Are we nearing the end of the persistent northwesterlies that have plagued the uk for the last couple of months. Looking at the models tonight it does look like it.

[davehsug]

Are we nearing the end of the persistent northwesterlies that have plagued the uk for the last couple of months. Looking at the models tonight it does look like it.

And hallelujah for that! I said a couple of weeks ago I'd gladly take a more mobile pattern if it meant some dry warm days in between the odd band of rain.

[Mokidugway]

Straight from the anomalous northwesterly into the June monsoon !!!.

Edited June 16, 2015 by Mokidugway

[mushymanrob]

Straight from the anomalous northwesterly into the June monsoon !!!.

 

exactly.... its all going downhill and soon we would be wishing the dry, fresh, but sunny northwesterlies would return.

welcome back cloud, mugginess, rain, goodbye sun, fresh air, dryness..... its all going pete tongue.

[Penrith Snow]

So we go from cloudy, cool and dry to cloudy, cool and wet?

No difference here as either way I can't enjoy my garden and at least with the coming unsettled spell we will 'all be in it together' unlike the north/south split we have at the moment.

It's turning into a dreadful summer up north.

Andy

[Summer Sun]

Anyone who watched the beebs weekly forecast last night will know next week's weather will be down to Tropical Storm Bill whilst the low won't affect us its the jet stream as ever will and at this stage we're likely to be on the cool side of it so wetter and more unsettled.

Edited June 17, 2015 by Polar Maritime
Can we please not discuss BBC forecast in here.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes as Heights push North over Greenland this in turn will buckle the Jet as usual, Leaving Low Pressure sat over the UK drawing in a cool Northerly type flow.  

 

Edited June 17, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[ribster]

All rather underwhelming, I thought summer was on the way this week, one warm day (which was cloudy at that), not very impressive. Hopefully a good day next weds for littleuns birthday, and a decent week in July and Aug for hols.

[Captain Shortwave]

Out of the output this morning I would happily take the ECM, whilst unsettled it is also warm with the risk of home grown thundery showers or even thunderstorms pushing up from France at times. I am not in the mood to see a dominant Scandi trough throwing cool north to north west winds over us, even if it ends up drier.

Edited June 18, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[cheeky_monkey]

im not sure what everyone is moaning about..IMBY its been a very pleasant June indeed...no rain.. a smattering of 25C+ days intermingled with fresher 20-22c days and comfortable nights for sleeping with decent amounts of sunshine to boot...I would be more than happy for the current set up to continue for the rest of the summer.

[William of Walworth]

im not sure what everyone is moaning about..IMBY its been a very pleasant June indeed...no rain.. a smattering of 25C+ days intermingled with fresher 20-22c days and comfortable nights for sleeping with decent amounts of sunshine to boot...I would be more than happy for the current set up to continue for the rest of the summer.

But for the last week of it it looks very likely (right now) to turn wetter or at least more showery. Glastonbury week is the week most in need (for 180,000 festival-goers) of being driest. Yet from some very settled FI outlooks for late June coming up prior to last weekend, changes since then have been big, and output now seems to show a massive amount of uncertainty.

 

I have the Somerset mudbath fear just now, and I will have to wait a while before J10's next update in his Glasto blog.

 

I am seriously in need of some reassurance for the SW at least. That ECM chart in Captain S's post above doesn't look in the least bit reassuring to me ...

Edited June 18, 2015 by William of Walworth

[summer blizzard]

Out of the output this morning I would happily take the ECM, whilst unsettled it is also warm with the risk of home grown thundery showers or even thunderstorms pushing up from France at times. I am not in the mood to see a dominant Scandi trough throwing cool north to north west winds over us, even if it ends up drier.

 

The Euro really confines any warmth or thunder to the south. For most of us, it's no better than the other models. 

[Daniel*]

Yes as Heights push North over Greenland this in turn will buckle the Jet as usual, Leaving Low Pressure sat over the UK drawing in a cool Northerly type flow.  

 

Yes low pressure would be lovely the aridity of this month is very telling on my garden.

[IanR]

im not sure what everyone is moaning about..IMBY its been a very pleasant June indeed...no rain.. a smattering of 25C+ days intermingled with fresher 20-22c days and comfortable nights for sleeping with decent amounts of sunshine to boot...I would be more than happy for the current set up to continue for the rest of the summer.

you are easily pleased.  not been very high summer like here, just a  couple of days of 21c  , the majority of days have been  15 to 17c  well below the long term average, with that nagging cold nw wind which has miraculously appeared again today after a few days missing

[cheese]

im not sure what everyone is moaning about..IMBY its been a very pleasant June indeed...no rain.. a smattering of 25C+ days intermingled with fresher 20-22c days and comfortable nights for sleeping with decent amounts of sunshine to boot...I would be more than happy for the current set up to continue for the rest of the summer.

You ask why people are complaining and then ramble on about the weather in your back yard - well, believe it or not, the weather varies from location to location! It's currently 13C, cloudy and windy here - so please forgive me for complaining.

Edited June 18, 2015 by cheese