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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.


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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

Yes some improvements overnight with High Pressure nudging further N/E over the UK towards the last 3rd of the Month. Summer proper certaily looks to be knocking at our shores.

And again BANK!

 

Us mid-Somerset goers (especially) in the last week of June will salute all the synoptic gods (and their high priests reading their runes and edicts here on Netweather).

 

IF it all turns out to be true </religious sceptic>

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

ramp time!

we are on the verge of 'a summer to remember'!!! the models have consistently had the azores high nudging our way - giving us some nice enough weather - before retreating allowing a cooler wetter shot. all this waxing and waneing of the azores high will end, when it becomes displaced, drifts to our east, and produces a long hot sunny summer!

next weeks shot might not be the decisive one, it might take several shots before it happens, but happen it WILL!


(based on nothing scientific, just a feeling that will likely be proven wrong!)

hope i havnt jinxed it now :unsure2:

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

ramp time!

we are on the verge of 'a summer to remember'!!! the models have consistently had the azores high nudging our way - giving us some nice enough weather - before retreating allowing a cooler wetter shot. all this waxing and waneing of the azores high will end, when it becomes displaced, drifts to our east, and produces a long hot sunny summer!

next weeks shot might not be the decisive one, it might take several shots before it happens, but happen it WILL!

(based on nothing scientific, just a feeling that will likely be proven wrong!)

hope i havnt jinxed it now :unsure2:

The expected placement of the Azores High is not perfect....yet. It is hanging more to the South West allowing cooler air in on the North Eastern flank, would prefer to see it settle around the centre of the country allowing a more continental draw.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Im surprised you have left it this late Rob

Yes with the positive signals today in the Models its well worthy of one

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

The expected placement of the Azores High is not perfect....yet. It is hanging more to the South West allowing cooler air in on the North Eastern flank, would prefer to see it settle around the centre of the country allowing a more continental draw.

 

maybe not yet perfect for real heat... but its 19c today in a strong sun and quite fresh air... theres a lot to like about that!

 

Im surprised you have left it this late Rob

Yes with the positive signals today in the Models its well worthy of one

 

well i had mentioned that i thought the summer would go one of two ways... either towards a lasting hot summer (which we are overdue) or a collapse into a particually wet one.  my post above was not based on the glorious ecm alone, and as you know im usually very critical of hopecasting and fantasy evolutions.

but its the pattern of the azores ridge, ebbing and flowing, imho its only a question of time before it ridges so strongly towards us that it displaces properly resulting in a lasting hot spell. i wouldnt be surprised IF the current ecm projection gets 'downgraded' , its still early in summer for a lasting hot spell. of course the 06z gfs doesnt play ball entirely, suggesting that the coming ridging might take a second shot as a deep trough passes by in midweek to our north.

so no science behind it, just a hunch that may or may not be proven well founded, in other words - a ramp! lol

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham

ramp time!

we are on the verge of 'a summer to remember'!!! the models have consistently had the azores high nudging our way - giving us some nice enough weather - before retreating allowing a cooler wetter shot. all this waxing and waneing of the azores high will end, when it becomes displaced, drifts to our east, and produces a long hot sunny summer!

next weeks shot might not be the decisive one, it might take several shots before it happens, but happen it WILL!

(based on nothing scientific, just a feeling that will likely be proven wrong!)

hope i havnt jinxed it now :unsure2:

Careful now mushy lad, you're making frosty look like eeyore. 

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

No shocks there ^ every weekend the same story this year, last Sunday was the only decent one this year but even that only reached 16.5c!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

GFS looks pants for weekend 20th-21st, UKMO and ECM better

GFS better be well off the mark, it's the airshow here next weekend and I'm praying the weather gods play nice.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

GFS better be well off the mark, it's the airshow here next weekend and I'm praying the weather gods play nice.

 

yes, I hope the greenie high fails as well, otherwise that's 4 weeks at least written off

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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

GFS better be well off the mark, it's the airshow here next weekend and I'm praying the weather gods play nice.

My hopes are the same as yours, Weston-super-Mare poster,  but even more so. In our case hopes are focussed entirely on Glastonbury -- we'll be heading there early before the official festival starts (ie we're going down next weekend).

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Bugger.... Messy synoptics, dont like messy synoptics because they always seem to result in bad weather not good.

Not very confident now that something hot will evolve, my fault for relying on unscientific methods, faith, belief, hunches, are worthless in the real world.

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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

Permission to rant please.

 

Over the four days prior to some of  the 00z runs (Friday 12/Saturday 13), pretty much ALL runs and anomolies seemed (to me) to be showing consistent High Pressure dominance, or at least influence, for the UK, for this coming week onwards, and into weeek 2 as well, that is the week starting Monday 22nd June -- Glastonbury week. And yes, before Saturday, I kept telling myself that FI was FI, but prospects prior to yesterday seemed in the vast majority of modelling to look pretty positive for the rest of June. 

 

Where the hell has all this operational variation and uncertainty suddenly come from? Charts seem all over the place at the moment.

 

I'm in need of some improved runs, or at the least, some non-washout-focussed reassurance.


Bugger.... Messy synoptics, dont like messy synoptics because they always seem to result in bad weather not good.

Not very confident now that something hot will evolve, my fault for relying on unscientific methods, faith, belief, hunches, are worthless in the real world.

I don't like messy either, but I don't really care about hot. I just want dry!

Edited by William of Walworth
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Dry in june/july suits me William .. :)

Edited by mushymanrob
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Need to come away from model watching after this Azores high departs. Grim isn't the word after that. Really hope the GFS is majorly wrong as we barely even see the 5c isotherm get over us the whole run on from 90hrs onwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Need to come away from model watching after this Azores high departs. Grim isn't the word after that. Really hope the GFS is majorly wrong as we barely even see the 5c isotherm get over us the whole run on from 90hrs onwards.

 

looking shocking, bets on maybe for the coldest ever Wimbledon

 

Knew that 12Z would get PM posting that, loving the charts, the equivalent of a winter Gaz1985!

Edited by Ilovethesnow
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

The UKMO looks much better than the GFS, better wait and see what the ECM comes up with. You can usually trust the GFS to go down the more unsettled route.

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Posted
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting weather
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon

Just as well Blacks outdoor supplies shop is closing down and selling off loads of thermal undies and massively warm coats, I have never felt less stupid having splurged money there yesterday than when I checked the charts tonight and considered how wretched this year is for camping, and we are going to suffer.....unless the undies and coats really turn out to be fab. I hope so.

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

Oh well, up here the weather is already cool and cloudy (max 15c today) so more unsettled weather at the weekend will not make much difference.

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

All this after the BBC forecasters saying that for most places, if you didn't get any meaningful rain from last weekends low, you probably weren't getting any for the rest of June?

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

Weekend curse looks set to strike again here, how can this keep happening on an endless loop! 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

maybe not yet perfect for real heat... but its 19c today in a strong sun and quite fresh air... theres a lot to like about that!

 

 

well i had mentioned that i thought the summer would go one of two ways... either towards a lasting hot summer (which we are overdue) or a collapse into a particually wet one.  my post above was not based on the glorious ecm alone, and as you know im usually very critical of hopecasting and fantasy evolutions.

but its the pattern of the azores ridge, ebbing and flowing, imho its only a question of time before it ridges so strongly towards us that it displaces properly resulting in a lasting hot spell. i wouldnt be surprised IF the current ecm projection gets 'downgraded' , its still early in summer for a lasting hot spell. of course the 06z gfs doesnt play ball entirely, suggesting that the coming ridging might take a second shot as a deep trough passes by in midweek to our north.

so no science behind it, just a hunch that may or may not be proven well founded, in other words - a ramp! lol

or the other thing is it just toys with us as it did during winter,,,after flirting resetting itself

 

BFTP

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