Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Milhouse]

Goodness me another green blob is about to engulf the UK on Sunday/Monday. How about we have a nice red blob for a change.

 

Edited June 9, 2015 by Milhouse

[IanR]

even greenland is better   

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Goodness me another green blob is about to engulf the UK on Sunday/Monday. How about we have a nice red blob for a change.

 

 

will feel okay though if sunny, for a change winds look light, hot feel if sunny in the sun

[Azazel]

its freezing out there today.

[The PIT]

will feel okay though if sunny, for a change winds look light, hot feel if sunny in the sun

The remains of the polar vortex sitting over us is quite annoying. Would have been welcome in Winter.

[cheese]

 

Am I missing something here? Is this chart supposed to be good, or what?

 

When will people realise that warmth in the SE DOES NOT equate to a 'good spell of weather' UNLESS YOU LIVE IN THE SE. Sheesh. I see a high of 15C here - mm, get the shorts out!

Edited June 9, 2015 by cheese

[I remember Atlantic 252]

long way in FI though that,

[Mokidugway]

 

Am I missing something here? Is this chart supposed to be good, or what?

 

When will people realise that warmth in the SE DOES NOT equate to a 'good spell of weather' UNLESS YOU LIVE IN THE SE. Sheesh. I see a high of 15C here - mm, get the shorts out!

likley 18 to 20 c always under cooks max temps ,in sunshine it would be nice ..

[Eugene]

21C max in mid June in the SE is as run of the mill as 6C max in northern england in mid December.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

21C max in mid June in the SE is as run of the mill as 6C max in northern england in mid December.

 

21C dizzy heights really away from the SE, typically been around 13-17C max for weeks

[knocker]

Well I spent a few hours today strolling ( not quite the correct word) around the Tremenheere Stature Garden. Wall to wall sunshine, max of 14C but felt warmer in the sun. Just great and as far as I'm concerned a great spell of weather. Then I'm easily pleased.

Edited June 9, 2015 by knocker

[ribster]

21C max in mid June in the SE is as run of the mill as 6C max in northern england in mid December.

Indeed, in fact some have been promising us a warm up since the third week of Feb, but always more than a week away. Anyone can post up charts at that range and say what they show, but I think that's where they fail to recognise the difference between what they show and what the weather will actually be, yet they are talked about in absolute terms. The skill is identifying the ones that will be correct. Still, it's amusing to watch I suppose...

[mushymanrob]

Will somebody please nuke that bloody azores high so its replaced by a azores low, maybe then we would get a bloody southerly instead of the incessant northwest/northerly...

Its time for some HEAT

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Will somebody please nuke that bloody azores high so its replaced by a azores low, maybe then we would get a bloody southerly instead of the incessant northwest/northerly...

Its time for some HEAT

 

remember it's a bit early yet for heat, heat dosen't really happen until Wimbledon at the earliest

[cheese]

Indeed, in fact some have been promising us a warm up since the third week of Feb, but always more than a week away. Anyone can post up charts at that range and say what they show, but I think that's where they fail to recognise the difference between what they show and what the weather will actually be, yet they are talked about in absolute terms. The skill is identifying the ones that will be correct. Still, it's amusing to watch I suppose...

That is precisely my point. These charts keep on getting posted, yet they always remain around 150+ hours out. Just think - the GFS was showing highs of 29-31C widely across England at the start of June. Never happened.

 

Plus, the person responsible for posting these charts doesn't live in the area shown to be warm anyway - which is why I find it so confusing. It's like me posting a chart showing 30C in London and 16C here, and saying that it's  going to warm up nicely - well, yeah, but not for my location, so why should I care? And this goes under the presumption that a warm up will occur at all - which in all likelihood it won't, if recent events are anything to go by.

 

Anyway - a typical max here for June is 19C - but that increases to 21C by the end of the month, and remains above 20C into September - so considering we have had highs of 14-16C this month, even an average day will feel very warm indeed. Just a signifier of how poor it has been.

Edited June 9, 2015 by cheese

[Chris K]

That is precisely my point. These charts keep on getting posted, yet they always remain around 150+ hours out. Just think - the GFS was showing highs of 29-31C widely across England at the start of June.

 

They keep getting posted because that is what the model outputs were showing and people are discussing them. If I wanted charts purely for the reliable I may as well quit the forum and stick with the official forecasts all the time. It's quite useful to see how the models come to different solutions from a learning perspective.

 

And to be honest i don't see that many posts promising that they will verify at that range, just explanations of what surface weather may be like for areas of the country if they did.

 

Agreed though that it  has been a cool start to June...we need a change in pattern and I can understand frustration that this keeps getting pushed back.

Edited June 9, 2015 by Chris K

[mushymanrob]

remember it's a bit early yet for heat, heat dosen't really happen until Wimbledon at the earliest

No it isnt... 75,76,90,95,97,03,06, and other years had heat before wimbledon

Edited June 9, 2015 by mushymanrob

[cheese]

Yeah odd comment.. reached 32C in Leeds in June 2000.. reached 31C in in June 1995, 30C In June 1989, 30C in June 2005, 31C in June 2011.. not to mention June 2003 and 2006 were both very warm too with temperatures frequently in the high 20s, even though it failed to reach 30C here. June 2003 had an average high of 22C here - making it warmer than any summer month between 2007 and 2012.

Edited June 9, 2015 by cheese

[stainesbloke]

Next week looks more of the same to be honest, until that Azores high actually sits slap bang on top of us or, even better, a Euro high develops, all we will see is a continuation of these awful N/NW/NE winds. Wouldn't be quite so bad if skies were clear as the sunshine is very strong now and would help take the edge off that never-ending howling wind. It's all just so dreary at the moment, boring as hell, just a whole lot colder! At least there is a window of warmth and possible storms coming up.

[mushymanrob]

actually, this pattern is rather unusual. i cant remember another such period in may and into june thats been so sunny, dry, and cool. 

its great to work in

.

[Milhouse]

The GFS indicating that nighttime minima could stay in double figures next week. Will mean that the warmth lasts longer into the evening.

[Milhouse]

Yeah odd comment.. reached 32C in Leeds in June 2000.. reached 31C in in June 1995, 30C In June 1989, 30C in June 2005, 31C in June 2011.. not to mention June 2003 and 2006 were both very warm too with temperatures frequently in the high 20s, even though it failed to reach 30C here. June 2003 had an average high of 22C here - making it warmer than any summer month between 2007 and 2012.

 

8th June 2004 saw 31.2c achieved as well in Gravesend. The first half of that month was very nice.

[William of Walworth]

Next week looks more of the same to be honest, until that Azores high actually sits slap bang on top of us or, even better, a Euro high develops, all we will see is a continuation of these awful N/NW/NE winds. Wouldn't be quite so bad if skies were clear as the sunshine is very strong now and would help take the edge off that never-ending howling wind. It's all just so dreary at the moment, boring as hell, just a whole lot colder! At least there is a window of warmth and possible storms coming up.

By (Glastonbury-going) choice I'd take something warmer (and a tad less windy) without any storms at all, so my preference would be for models over future days to show a somewhat more progressive evolution of projected High Pressure from the SW, ie centring nearer us/even over us and stopping with us, eg a nice fat 1030 HP centred over Glastonbury Tor, Mon 22nd June onwards for 10 days, with a nice orientation for pleasant light winds for most.

 

Boring? I'll take High Pressure-dominated boring myself ... hey I don't ask for much!

 

And not changing (much) until Tuesday 1st July please! (something not ridiculously far away from the above dream is certainly not completely impossible, given trends of several recent-most op and ens models)

 

<slaps self and keeps reminding self about FI being FI >

Edited June 10, 2015 by William of Walworth

[mountain shadow]

A quick summary, Summer is coming.

:-)

[Polar Maritime]

Yes some improvements overnight with High Pressure nudging further N/E over the UK towards the last 3rd of the Month. Summer proper certaily looks to be knocking at our shores.