Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Schnee]

It can get as hot as it wants... preferrably sunny as i've got Air Con and Solar Panels.

[conor123]

^ Even that fails on 06z, rain blasting back in Sunday bulldozing any high pressure shocker 

[Mokidugway]

Model watching is fast turning into a joke ,might as well watch paint dry as at least the outcome is useful ...

[Evening thunder]

Why does everything always shift east so much and downgrade? retarded models. 

 

No doubt instead a weak long plume will upgrade and occur from the 10th-17th, when I'm not in the country. Often a guarantee of me missing one of the better if not the best event of the year.

[Lincstim]

Devastated

I really do hope it's a wobble

I'm not fussed about 30 degrees but mid 20's and dry is a must for North lincs next Saturday

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Nope. You can guarantee that Belgium and holland will steal our thunder yet again!

Was always erring on the side of caution throughout this one anyway. Shortwave drama puts the knife in once again!

[Northern Sky]

It seems like winter but in reverse.  First we see stella charts on edges of FI and then they get watered down overnight as we get nearer. 

 

BFTP

Yes after watching the models over the last few years this seems very much the pattern of events. It's those few times when it actually comes off that makes it worth it - Dec 10 etc.

 

As for the hot spell I'm really pleased it's been watered down because I hate hot humid weather.

[Bolt from the Blue]

I really hope, for my sanity and especially those further north, that the next output has the plume positioned further west. I don't know how much more of this annoying northwesterly wind I can handle!!

[NorthernRab]

I really hope, for my sanity and especially those further north, that the next output has the plume positioned further west. I don't know how much more of this annoying northwesterly wind I can handle!!

Trying living in the Scottish Highlands. May (and June) often delivers our best weather - certainly not this year!

[Summer Sun]

Here's the beebs take on Thursday and Friday from todays week ahead forecast,

 

 

Some uncertainty for the position of the high on Friday but this is the current thought's, if winds come up from the south east then the chance of Thunderstorms later in the day increases

 

Edited May 31, 2015 by Summer Sun

[cheese]

The one thing I want to know is - why do certain members only ever make a contribution whenever the models start showing crap weather? One would think that they actually enjoy cold northwesterlies in summer! This unrelenting pessimism that some people have is incredibly irritating - and I sincerely hope they don't take that approach to life in general.

Edited May 31, 2015 by cheese

[Evening thunder]

The one thing I want to know is - why do certain members only ever make a contribution whenever the models start showing crap weather? One would think that they actually enjoy cold northwesterlies in summer! This unrelenting pessimism that some people have is incredibly irritating - and I sincerely hope they don't take that approach to life in general.

 

Quite agree, there's a few posters that always just post about cold charts/downgrades, and only ever post warm/hot ones if it was from yesterday to show that today has changed and 'downgraded'. Though they post as if they don't enjoy it, but maybe they do (nothing wrong with liking cool weather, but why pretend you don't and spread a load of pessimistic posts?)

 

I just occasionally post a moan in this thread such as this morning when I feel I need it. 

Edited May 31, 2015 by Evening thunder

[draztik]

Oh, lively in here.

Theres a difference between spreading pessimism and keeping it real.

 

It's always amusing to me, when those that post FI heatwaves are never chastised for being overtly optimistic. 

 

Gotta love these parts, always a smile.

[cheese]

Oh, lively in here.

Theres a difference between spreading pessimism and keeping it real.

 

It's always amusing to me, when those that post FI heatwaves are never chastised for being overtly optimistic. 

 

Gotta love these parts, always a smile.

Well, let's take a trip back to July 2013 when you were the harbinger of doom, parroting the slightest hint of a breakdown in the deepest depths of fantasy island, even though it never, at any point, materalised, and indeed the warmer then average conditions persisted throughout August and September.

 

Going by the above, we can come to the conclusion that you're not being realistic.

Edited May 31, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Frosty_wsm]

The one thing I want to know is - why do certain members only ever make a contribution whenever the models start showing crap weather? One would think that they actually enjoy cold northwesterlies in summer! This unrelenting pessimism that some people have is incredibly irritating - and I sincerely hope they don't take that approach to life in general.

Precisely why I'm thankful for the ignore function, so I don't need to waste time reading the 'unrelenting pessimism' you refer to lol.

[Captain Shortwave]

Oh, lively in here.

Theres a difference between spreading pessimism and keeping it real.

It's always amusing to me, when those that post FI heatwaves are never chastised for being overtly optimistic.

Gotta love these parts, always a smile.

To be fair there was good support for a spell of very warm weather. Mean 850s well into double figures across England and Wales at 6/7 days out coupled with very good metoffice updates and teleconnections. I think there was good reason to be optimistic. The casing point being that you win some (July 2013 and 2014) and lose some (August 2013).

Time to cool things off I think in here. Normally the postmortem is done after the patient has snuffed it.

Edited May 31, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Costa Del Fal]

Quite agree, there's a few posters that always just post about cold charts/downgrades, and only ever post warm/hot ones if it was from yesterday to show that today has changed and 'downgraded'. Though they post as if they don't enjoy it, but maybe they do (nothing wrong with liking cool weather, but why pretend you don't and spread a load of pessimistic posts?)

I just occasionally post a moan in this thread such as this morning when I feel I need it.

Have to agree with this sadly. We're all guilty of our own biases and from all camps there are evidences of some who only come out at specific times but it does seem most prevalent at this time of year. Edited May 31, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[draztik]

Well, let's take a trip back to July 2013 when you were the harbinger of doom, parroting the slightest hint of a breakdown in the deepest depths of fantasy island, even though it never, at any point, materalised, and indeed the warmer then average conditions persisted throughout August and September.

Going by the above, we can come to the conclusion that you're not being realistic.

Thats some memory! talking of posts from two years ago, tells me everything! I think its time you let go, it will ensure you're a happier person I promise you.

But lets be real! This is a case of folk not liking the reality infront of them. I can't control the weather, you'll be glad to hear - so going after the messenger won't solve your ailment.

Edited May 31, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Winter Cold]

I think theres always going to be annoyance in both camps as its very hard to accept why someone likes a different choice to you or has a different preference. All id say is the world would be a very boring place if we all agreed

 

As for the heat and 'good' charts, well all I can say is im not too shocked as its usualy the case in the UK that we end up loosing the special events as they draw near and we just end up with the boring middle ground. I did post the GEFS a few times in the model thread over the past few days which showed little appetite for heat, and today the runs are just more inline with the mean and not so over the top. The GFS as you saw was consistently flattering us I think.

 

Having said that I think some of the doom comments are a little OTT, its still going to be dry and sunny mostly and in temps of high teens into low twenties thats lovely. Spot on I think

[A.J]

just to reiterate things, and albeit less politely than Scott, there's some absolute crap being posted in this thread by some members who seem to think that this forum thread is for point scoring and personal comments....Guess what?...It isn't...

 

...and for members who disagree with this and continue in their current vein might well find their posting abilities in this part of the forum disappear sharpish

 

keep it civil if you are incapable of keeping it friendly, and let's knock the bickering and 'smart' comments on the head full stop......I thank you

Edited May 31, 2015 by ajpoolshark

[Eugene]

I think theres always going to be annoyance in both camps as its very hard to accept why someone likes a different choice to you or has a different preference. All id say is the world would be a very boring place if we all agreed

 

As for the heat and 'good' charts, well all I can say is im not too shocked as its usualy the case in the UK that we end up loosing the special events as they draw near and we just end up with the boring middle ground. I did post the GEFS a few times in the model thread over the past few days which showed little appetite for heat, and today the runs are just more inline with the mean and not so over the top. The GFS as you saw was consistently flattering us I think.

 

Having said that I think some of the doom comments are a little OTT, its still going to be dry and sunny mostly and in temps of high teens into low twenties thats lovely. Spot on I think

 

 

 

Most sensible post i've seen, yes i keep my eyes on every single model run available including the minor runs not many take notice of plus ensembles and they were always mixed, the doom is way OTT when summer doesn't start until tomorrow and is notoriously slow to get going in the UK.

[summer blizzard]

Lets all calm ourselves and look objectively, for the 99% of the population who don't view long range models they'll probably be quite happy with temperatures in the twenties and fairly sunny conditions for a few days at least.

 

It's also worth saying that these arguments happen every year be it summer or winter. In winter if you dare to suggest a cold front won't produce snow south of the M4 then you lambasted by 11 people (Feb 12 in my example) for being thick and clearly not knowing anything. In summer i dared to suggest that early to mid June last year may deteriorate in 2007 conditions (due to persistent pressure building over Greenland), while i was wrong i was declared to be one of the doom mongers. 

 

You win some and you lose some but it would be better for everybody if we all kept calm regardless. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS delays the warm spell, but increases the uncertainty by keeping it in FI, Friday certainly looks pants, UKMO looking better for Sat, but FI it is, and models tend to underplay low pressure in FI

[Costa Del Fal]

Until heights lower around Greenland I think we will continue to struggle to find warmth lasting or dry weather persisting. Could be a long time. Whilst I don't expect a 2007-12 summer, I think this summer will be More like these than 2013-14.

[Lincstim]

Could someone clear up the latest predictions for this Saturday in North lines region

Involved in a festival

Desperate for dry weather

Warm would be great (mid 20's lol)

But just happy with rain free