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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

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Milhouse Seasoned

Milhouse

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
Posted

More rubbish being churned out by the models, at least from Sunday onwards. At least at that range the models havent quite got to grips with things.

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

My morning muse is that if the current anomaly charts had cropped up in January an outbreak of mass hysteria would be well underway in the other thread.

Edited by knocker
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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

very true lad, just made a comment along those lines in the model thread-keep away from garden centres for a while so as not to be tempted perhaps !

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

tbh im happy with the current trends. this cooler northerly sourced air has great air quality about it, its quite dry, its fresh, and the chilly nights have so far prevented my lilies being attacked by molluscs! (i refuse to use poisons to kill them, far too many other things further up the food chain have suffered terribly).

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BlueSkies_do_I_see Aficionado

BlueSkies_do_I_see

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Weather Preferences: anticyclonic unless a snow storm
  • Location: Coventry
Posted

So after the sunniest April in record, it looks like a much cooler May.

Whilst Spain has smashed heat records this week.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/05/14/scorching-spain-heat-breaks-all-time-may-records-for-europe/

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

The beebs week ahead forecast is now moving towards what the models are showing with high pressure moving up for the 2nd half of the week and temperatures responding well in the south in the "very warm sunshine".

 

Before that a fair few showers for the start of the week though some sunny intervals in between and feeling cool for the time of year especially where your exposed to the north westerly wind

Edited by Summer Sun
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Bradowl Community Regular

Bradowl

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham
Posted

I think this high is going to be too far west to bring any warm sunny conditions. 

 

Only the far south west seeing anything above average whilst most areas see cool north westerly's with cloud and light showers affecting central and eastern areas at times.

 

Poor frosty keeps getting excited posting charts which show something close to summery conditions but we just can't get there.  :D

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Eugene Accomplished

Eugene

Posted
Posted

I think this high is going to be too far west to bring any warm sunny conditions. 

 

Only the far south west seeing anything above average whilst most areas see cool north westerly's with cloud and light showers affecting central and eastern areas at times.

 

Poor frosty keeps getting excited posting charts which show something close to summery conditions but we just can't get there.  :D

 

 

LOL, indeed, he's my good weather charm. :D

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Can't say i'm too sad.

 

I do like May-July heat but this is certainly preferable to last years humid fest. 

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coldcomfort Seasoned

coldcomfort

Posted
Posted

I think this high is going to be too far west to bring any warm sunny conditions. 

 

Only the far south west seeing anything above average whilst most areas see cool north westerly's with cloud and light showers affecting central and eastern areas at times.

 

Poor frosty keeps getting excited posting charts which show something close to summery conditions but we just can't get there.  :D

Indeed, the fact that he hasn't posted anything in the MOD today probably says more about future prospects than anything else... :D

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

My oh my! This 12z run is beyond sickening!!! Really would be the most miserable start to summer one could wish for. Flooding would be a massive problem just like July 2007 if that came off. Hope to god the 18z does a massive U turn for the best!

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

It's one GFS deep FI run.

It's unlikely to verify like that so no need worrying one iota for now.

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ribster Aficionado

ribster

Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
Posted

Well while not quite putting lipstick on a pig, nothing to get too excited about. In fact I'd put money on this summer not being a scorcher, distinctly average will be the order of the day I think, yes some warm days, even hot at times. Just can't see it being remembered for heat...

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Bradowl Community Regular

Bradowl

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham
Posted

Indeed, the fact that he hasn't posted anything in the MOD today probably says more about future prospects than anything else... :D

 

He's had another go now, bless, :D  I wish them charts would come off but having just watched 21:55 news 24 long range forecast things look like staying same.

 

That high is just too far west for any long term summery weather, we should see one or two nice days down south but cool and a lot of cloud with a few light showers for many is what I see.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Looks very normal to me, proper sustained summery weather doesn't often start until mid July onwards anyway, early July is usually unsettled before the jet moves north allowing the azores high to push over us from mid July, temps perfectly acceptable in the next week.

Good grief! I actually agree with you fully!!!

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Just dreadful charts arm. Really frustrates me when it's pretty my h just the UK stuck in this cool relentless Nw'ly flow whilst the rest of Europe is all warmer. It just looks like the UK is purposely targeted!

Think we can write the next two weeks off really. It's clear any pressure rises are being pushed back. More cloudy, damp, cool dross to come. I have a feeling El Niño is to blame for Northern blocking and the flat or circular highs stuck in the Atlantic and/or the pattern over America. If so a very cool and wet summer may lie ahead. That is certainly not me writing summer off at all though!!!!

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Eugene Accomplished

Eugene

Posted
Posted (edited)

Argos and home base have knocked 15 % off garden stuff ,a bad omen :0....

 

 

To clear space for Christmas presents for sale in July no doubt whilst we're sizzling in big bang theory.  ;)

Edited by Eugene
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

Just dreadful charts arm. Really frustrates me when it's pretty my h just the UK stuck in this cool relentless Nw'ly flow whilst the rest of Europe is all warmer. It just looks like the UK is purposely targeted!

Think we can write the next two weeks off really. It's clear any pressure rises are being pushed back. More cloudy, damp, cool dross to come. I have a feeling El Niño is to blame for Northern blocking and the flat or circular highs stuck in the Atlantic and/or the pattern over America. If so a very cool and wet summer may lie ahead. That is certainly not me writing summer off at all though!!!!

 

Well I certainly think El Nino has something to do with sub tropical jet and the torrential rains on the Plains that look set to continue a for a while. But I don't agree about the future for the UK and this time we may see some HP established to the NE and less cooler air from the Canadian vortex and a weakening of the jet. It may not be coincidence that the Arctic is very warm at the moment and looks like staying that way for a while.

Edited by knocker
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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Argos and home base have knocked 15 % off garden stuff ,a bad omen :0....

 

means theyve not sold as many in spring as theyd hope to... they dont have any idea of what sort of summer we will get.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Well it is great to see that many here agree with what Frosty and I have been saying for a week or so, that June will mark a turning poit in our weather.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83046-model-output-discussion-3rd-may-onwards-00z/?p=3204645

 

:hi:

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