Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

another awful GFS run, looks like turning much colder later in May, and Thurs 14th a write off for the south

[AWD]

another awful GFS run, looks like turning much colder later in May, and Thurs 14th a write off for the south

What's happening on Thurs 14th?

[Supacell]

I wouldn't be concerned with what models are showing for late May. They showed a warm spell lasting 3 days with temps in the 20's just three days ago and that has all but disappeared. If the models can't get it right for 5 days hence then late May is in lala land. FI is FI, what it is showing is very unlikely to happen imo.

[Summer Sun]

What's happening on Thurs 14th?

 

Looks like a wash out, Scotland and maybe the far north of England could miss the rain just depends how far north it gets

 

[Milhouse]

The outlook is so incredibly dull its unreal. I hope a decent plume shows itself by the end of the month.

[Summer Sun]

The outlook is so incredibly dull its unreal. I hope a decent plume shows itself by the end of the month.

 

The best I've found from the 12z's so far is this from GEM

 

[049balt]

The GfS and ECM both hinting at High pressure building from next Friday and lasting into the following  week.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

What can I say, the 18z has took it from bad to worse, infact so bad I can't even comprehend!!   

[Costa Del Fal]

Indeed a shocking 18z. Some of the worst may charts I have seen in there. Cold and showery. Nasty. Hope to God it's not a precursor for summer because otherwise we are in big trouble however this is much better now than in a month or twos time. Not saying it won't happen then but if this is happening now and will dominate the rest of may you would bet on a different pattern by mid June.

[cheese]

The way things are going I don't think we're going to exceed 20C at all here this month - which has never happened before. Thursday has a high of 9C forecast which is ridiculous for mid-May. Truly one of the worst May's in my lifetime. The last good April/bad May combo was 2003 so that gives hope to the superstitious/pattern matching people on here.

 

May is supposed to be our sunniest month of the year and the second driest but it's already the wettest by the country margin with over 50mm in the first 10 days. We have had 3 days over 10mm with one day having 25mm.

 

Words fail me.

Edited May 11, 2015 by cheese

[Eugene]

The outlook is so incredibly dull its unreal. I hope a decent plume shows itself by the end of the month.

never mind Richard things are bound to improve, try and, do what Morecambe and Wise sang, 'Always look on the bright side...'

 

this seems at odds with your comments Richard

from UK Met

 East Scotland has had its sunniest April on record, beating 1942’s 200 hours of sunshine by 2 hours and it was the second sunniest for England East and NE with 212.4 – just behind 2011 with 216.9 5 hours.

 

 

Yeah John, its been an extremely sunny Spring , those "rubbish" PM airmasses not so rubbish afterall,.

Edited May 11, 2015 by Eugene

[MP-R]

As some have said, some pretty nasty charts for May in the pipeline at the moment. Very reminiscent of May 2002 and 2003, and more recently August 2014. Re the last in that list, if September 2014's synoptics could take hold in June I would be happy. 

[Summer Sun]

As some have said, some pretty nasty charts for May in the pipeline at the moment. Very reminiscent of May 2002 and 2003, and more recently August 2014. Re the last in that list, if September 2014's synoptics could take hold in June I would be happy. 

 

If something like summer 2003 followed not many would be complaining come the end of summer

[cheese]

Yeah John, its been an extremely sunny Spring , those "rubbish" PM airmasses not so rubbish afterall,.

That had nothing to do with PM air - April was a very warm month relative to average. Please, think before you post.

If something like summer 2003 followed not many would be complaining come the end of summer

Summer 2002 wasn't terrible either - but not great. August was warmer than average but July was a little cooler than average. June was around average.

Edited May 11, 2015 by cheese

[TwisterGirl81]

Isn't it typical that these charts don't show up in winter and USA/Canada have the cold airmass and snow then in spring/summer it swtiches and we get the sh*tty cool weather and they get the sun and heat.

 

You couldn't make it up!

[johnholmes]

That had nothing to do with PM air - April was a very warm month relative to average. Please, think before you post.

 

 

 

My post made comment about the amount of sun east Scotland had from Met O records?

[Eugene]

Don't worry John, he wasn't referring to you but me.

Edited May 11, 2015 by Eugene

[Eugene]

That had nothing to do with PM air - April was a very warm month relative to average. Please, think before you post.

Summer 2002 wasn't terrible either - but not great. August was warmer than average but July was a little cooler than average. June was around average.

 

 

Yeah but it was still mainly sub 546 dam HP cells and it was never that humid and dewpoints on the most part were low, we saw a high amount of ground frost at night, day length and sun strength made temps rise to above average values which is only 12C max, it was still colder than your coldest summer months.

 

March was very sunny and did have a higher occurrence of PM airmasses.

Edited May 11, 2015 by Eugene

[Eugene]

Well funnily enough Eugene, the Tm air masses have actually been sunnier than the Pm air masses here. April for me was extremely sunny until the last week, which was fairly cloudy.

 

 

Maybe for you Scott but for many as you can see in regional threads they are cloudier than PM airmasses.

[cheese]

Yeah but it was still mainly sub 546 dam HP cells and it was never that humid and dewpoints on the most part were low, we saw a high amount of ground frost at night, day length and sun strength made temps rise to above average values which is only 12C max, it was still colder than your coldest summer months.

 

March was very sunny and did have a higher occurrence of PM airmasses.

Well yeah but it still wasn't a Pm air mass. Anyway I'm no fan of Tm airmasses - at this time of the year what I really want is a continental air mass to deliver some sunny hot weather.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Maybe for you Scott but for many as you can see in regional threads they are cloudier than PM airmasses.

 

pm airmasses tend to be cloudier here, even wet, as showers/cloud come in from the cheshire Gap, convection seems stronger anyway of PM air

 

hate PM air, probably the worst airmass especially in winter

[MP-R]

If something like summer 2003 followed not many would be complaining come the end of summer

 

I'm sure haha.

 

I don't have too many notable memories of 2002. June wasn't brilliant, mainly because of cloudiness rather than rain. I do remember the first two weeks of July being pretty dire - cool and wet. I was away on holiday when there was the July hot spell in the UK. August was more interesting though. I can recall some decent thunderstorms in the first week, a warm/hot spell in the second week and generally usable weather for the rest of August and September.

 

Model wise, I think we've got a little way to go first.

[Captain Shortwave]

A really uninspiring outlook with the Azores high setting up in the worst possible position for weather fans. Cool, fairly dry and fairly cloudy sums it up. The only meaningful rain will probably be Thursday in southern areas as low pressure slides between the two areas of high pressure.

[049balt]

A really uninspiring outlook with the Azores high setting up in the worst possible position for weather fans. Cool, fairly dry and fairly cloudy sums it up. The only meaningful rain will probably be Thursday in southern areas as low pressure slides between the two areas of high pressure.

Suite me just fine, with recent rainfall running at up 500% of normal we need dry weather.

[TwisterGirl81]

Suite me just fine, with recent rainfall running at up 500% of normal we need dry weather.

 

I can only speak for my part of the british isle ie Devon/southwest england but this winter we haven't had that much rain to be honest but I know Northwest have had quite a bit of rain.