Southeast England & East Anglia - Weather Chat >> 1st March Onwards

[Harry]

Question for more knowledgeable people.

 

NMM has great CAPE, LI over us tomorrow evening.

 

NMM 20-00.png

 

CIN doesn't look a massive issue.

 

Precipitable water is good.

 

The TT Index is good.

 

TT Index.png

 

And yet the thunderstorm potential for our area is not looking good. Convective precipitation forecast (as good as it gets) shown.

 

ConvPrec.png

 

What is missing? (both from the forecast and my knowledge) Is it a forcing element?

 

Yes, pretty much - there'll be modest convective inhibition, meaning that energy stays suppressed. Further north there is a trough moving through leading to destabilisation, whereas further south there is no such trough. 

 

I've never quite understood to be honest why the CF doesn't do more.

 

Some models however are keen to develop more precip further south.

 

I'm not getting my hopes up any more to be honest...even the end of the week is looking more and more like a clipper situation!

Edited June 30, 2015 by Harry

[VillagePlank]

The forecast is not completely devoid of rain: Here's GEFS until tomorrow night,

 

[Steve C]

Yes, pretty much - there'll be modest convective inhibition, meaning that energy stays suppressed. Further north there is a trough moving through leading to destabilisation, whereas further south there is no such trough. 

 

I've never quite understood to be honest why the CF doesn't do more.

 

Some models however are keen to develop more precip further south.

 

I'm not getting my hopes up any more to be honest...even the end of the week is looking more and more like a clipper situation!

 

I wonder whether we might get one spectacular storm tomorrow, in our area, if as noted earlier, we can set a sea breeze convergence or similar then?

 

Typical how the sky is so absolutely loaded with potential, yet is likely to stay that way. A bit like a store of gunpowder, but no-one has a match.

[VillagePlank]

Yes, tomorrow, the trigger is everything - although outside chance of French imports, and of course, normal GFS bias to move precipitation eastwards so central band of precipitation may move towards the west of our region by the time it actually happens.

Edited June 30, 2015 by VillagePlank

[Hodgheg]

TAF for Heathrow is going for Prob30 Cumulonimbus between 5z to 12Z tomorrow. Will be interesting to see what they say later on this evening. 

[Swave Snow]

27c now in Northolt North West London

[Coopsy]

Just in London and though its in the high 20's right now it doesn't feel humid and there is a nice breeze. I thought with the heat the humidity was coming or is this later?

[alexisj9]

Only 23 here now, comfortable with a breeze. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

27 at Heathrow 27 at city airport 27.4 at Northolt

Will it go higher??

[NO LONGER POSTING]

England and the Midlands. Thereafter, strong surface heating and an approaching upper trough/height falls should foster the development of scattered strong-severe thunderstorms from late morning onwards from Wales into N England and Scotland. Isolated development cannot be ruled out within the hot plume further south-east into the Midlands. Storms will be developing within decent instability /1000-1500J/Kg CAPE/ and fairly strong deep layer wind shear. However, the shear will be rather unidirectional favouring splitting supercell storms and organised multicells. As mentioned N England and Scotland seem most at risk with strong winds and large hail possible, as well as frequent lightning.

Overnight, these should move away but a cluster of storms/a possible MCS may move into SE England later in the night.

Thursday - scattered thunderstorms are possible on Thursday over Scotland in the post-frontal airmass. Also, a risk in E Anglia close to the departing heat/instability plume.

Friday - a surface ridge should keep most places fine through much of the day, but pressure falls to the west along with an approaching upper trough should advect the moist/unstable tropical air back in from the south-east later on. Thunderstorms may form on the warm front across Wales/SW England later in the day before intense thunderstorms form or move up from the south across portions of SE England/E Anglia. This has the potential to be a rather nasty event but we should get the next couple of days out the way first!

This tickles me

[Daniel*]

27 at Heathrow 27 at city airport 27.4 at Northolt

Will it go higher??

Yes of course it will 28C at Heathrow now in fact potentially it may go 3C higher I sense.

[Kent Blizzard]

27.8*c here with a decent breeze making it feel quite nice actually.....will be a sticky night I feel!!

If you don't want intense heat hopefully this breeze sticks around tomorrow too.

Edited June 30, 2015 by Kent Blizzard

[scientist_uk]

seems that the essex estuary coast is strugging a bit, one weather station about 2 miles inland is recording 25.3c, only slowly creeping up. and 25.6c at Shoeburyness still its very plesant completly blue skys no contrails, and a little breeze dosnt feel humid, however I think that will change

Edited June 30, 2015 by scientist_uk

[alexisj9]

25 here so far, still feels nice, felt more humid most of last week than today, don't mind sunny breezy non humid days at all. Hope it stays like this.

[Harps]

Easily the best day of the summer so far in London, a deep blue sky without a hint of any cloud and a nice breeze. Not sure on temperature locally but it doesn't feel especially hot, just perfect for me today

[Methuselah]

25 here so far, still feels nice, felt more humid most of last week than today, don't mind sunny breezy non humid days at all. Hope it stays like this.

It won't!

[Daniel*]

seems that the essex estuary coast is strugging a bit, one weather station about 2 miles inland is recording 25.3c, only slowly creeping up. and 25.6c at Shoeburyness still its very plesant completly blue skys no contrails, and a little breeze dosnt feel humid, however I think that will change

Shown clearly by image below, I think it's due to a southeasterly feed going over a relatively cool North Sea.

[Snowman.]

25.7c not a cloud to be seen. Smashing day.

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29!!!

Come on!!!

Imagine if we got 2 degrees above the projected 30-31 tomorrow and the possibility of 32-33 later in the week phoar!

[Daniel*]

29!!!

Come on!!!

Imagine if we got 2 degrees above the projected 30-31 tomorrow and the possibility of 32-33 later in the week phoar!

Screenshot_2015-06-30-14-18-38.png

Hi Surrey MO have gone for a 60% chance of London area breaching 35c with such high figures widespread over London & Southeast. GFS always under does it! 29C here not far away from 30C!

[scientist_uk]

Shown clearly by image below, I think it's due to a southeasterly feed going over a relatively cool North Sea.

image.jpg

ya i dont think ill be taking a dip quite yet, stragely the hottest part of the day in these parts seem to be around 6pm, i always though it should be around 2-3 pm? I think the highest recorded temp today will be 31.5 somewhere around london

Edited June 30, 2015 by scientist_uk

[Biggin]

Southern half of England atm , beautiful.http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

[Daniel*]

ya i dont think ill be taking a dip quite yet, stragely the hottest part of the day in these parts seem to be around 6pm, i always though it should be around 2-3 pm? I think the highest recorded temp today will be 31.5 somewhere around london

This is normal for the time of year often the daily high temperature is between 3:00 to 6:00 p.m despite the most sun exposure and intensity in early afternoon it takes hours for the sun's rays to absorb into the environment there is a lag time, this heat is also then radiated in all directions come darkness it is called thermal response. The lag is a bit like flooding the peak discharge is often several hours later (volume of water flowing through a river).

Edited June 30, 2015 by Daniel*

[NO LONGER POSTING]

30 hit now in the region

[Daniel*]

30.2C IMBY it is not unbearable don't get me wrong it's warm alright - it is a dry heat nice to have reached this milestone! It is a wonderful day I've never seen the sky so blue in a long time.