Southeast England & East Anglia - Weather Chat >> 1st March Onwards

[NO LONGER POSTING]

lol i would let those storms near us as they are now! (if by some miracle they could make it over the channel) i doubt many of us storm freaks would be complaining at a strike rate of around 7000 per hour!!

I things don't seem to be going to plan already 0.o

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Estofex forecast for tomorrow looks promising!

 

[Blessed Weather]

My take on this evenings NMM 2KM output is that the most favourable instability for thunderstorms is to the west of our Region (Central Southern England, the SW and Wales), but with Surrey and Sussex also looking good to join in the fun. Rainfall doesn't appear to get north of London until well into the evening (on the NMM and the local Look East forecast), by which time the instability has fallen away, reducing the chances of storm, so just a spell of heavy rain for the likes of Suffolk and Norfolk.

 

But as Sparkicle says in his excellent post above, we can hope that forcing mechanisms will produce a few surprises later tomorrow afternoon!

 

Here's this evening's NMM charts for CAPE/LI and Precipitation at 17.00, 19.00, 21.00 and 23.00 hours:

 

 

 

By the way, the local forecast was dire for Sunday and Monday! Back to a max temp of 14C!

[South coaster]

Hoping to be in the firing line fingers and toes crossed

[alexisj9]

Very impressive CAPE charts on the 12z NMM.

 

Surface Based CAPE for 3 o'clock tomorrow afternoon for instance.

 

SB CAPE 15.png

That sort of looks like I've moved to america by accident.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Humidity is slowly creeping up here

 

Up from 56% at 5pm to 71% currently

[Lauren]

Is it possible to die of hayfever because I think that's what's happening.

In that regard I'd love a storm to clear the air.

[Tom Jarvis]

Storm heading towards rouen France looks like it could be on track to Sussex

[alexisj9]

Is it possible to die of hayfever because I think that's what's happening.

In that regard I'd love a storm to clear the air.

Mines been bad today too.

[Biggin]

http://www.sat24.com/en/fr some of that lightning moving our way for tonight ?? I am surprised.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.sat24.com/en/fr some of that lightning moving our way for tonight ?? I am surprised.

Me to just checked the models and it's much further east it showed this yesterday morning then dropped it

[Biggin]

Me to just checked the models and it's much further east it showed this yesterday morning then dropped it

We dont need the mess it may leave Surrey ?? Tomorrow is our day get those temps up.

[Blessed Weather]

It's certainly kicking off in northern France and out in the Channel. Great to watch the real-time lightening strikes on this site.

 

Screen grab image 21.25 

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime

[NO LONGER POSTING]

It's certainly kicking off in northern France and out in the Channel. Great to watch the real-time lightening strikes on this site.

 

Screen grab image 21.25  Realtime Lightening Map 21.25.jpg

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime

Mental

[nicol@]

Red sky at night, shepherds delight.

I prefer:

Red sky at night, would like some flashes tonight.

I must stop looking at the enticing radar.

[Tom Jarvis]

Need more storms fireing to the east for them to hit my location

[alexisj9]

Need more storms fireing to the east for them to hit my location

And even further east for mine, one may have started recently that might get to you if it gets this far. Just to the south of paris at the min.

[Biggin]

And even further east for mine, one may have started recently that might get to you if it gets this far. Just to the south of paris at the min.

Yep need em well east of Paris for me on current direction.

[Biggin]

Still things occurring off shore atm 

 http://www.bournemouth.gov.uk/AttractionsLeisure/BeachesandWaterfront/PierApproachWebcam2.aspx

[Captain Shortwave]

Certainly no need to worry just yet, for most our turn will be later tomorrow. Before then....

Mid to high twenties across the region away from the immediate coastlines. The NMM shows more hope compared to the GFS in terms of storm potential, the latter seemingly over stating the effect of the wind direction on the conditions (especially at mid-levels where our storms will likely be located).

Interestingly for the southern half of the region the weekend looks pretty decent as the cold front stalls over Central England meaning the home counties and maybe even the London area could remain bright and humid.

Edited June 11, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Mark wheeler]

It's certainly kicking off in northern France and out in the Channel. Great to watch the real-time lightening strikes on this site.

 

Screen grab image 21.25  Realtime Lightening Map 21.25.jpg

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime

Yeah great sight I've been watching the progress on and off all day . Slowly creeping closer all seems to be going west of most of us at the moment but as we know all can change very quickly and with the heat tomorrow. Boooom

[k66yla]

It's certainly kicking off in northern France and out in the Channel. Great to watch the real-time lightening strikes on this site.

 

Screen grab image 21.25  Realtime Lightening Map 21.25.jpg

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime

wow, thats pretty intense where my mum lives in the Charente. Probably why she has'nt phoned me tonight.

[Mark wheeler]

Wow Chris Fawkes just ramped big time on local forecast feeling soupie ? With temps possibly hitting 29c with any sun then big storms affecting transport .

National forecast also said higher than 26 in the southeast and ramped up storm potential

Edited June 11, 2015 by Mark wheeler

[Captain Shortwave]

Estofex has us in a level 1 warning for tomorrow.

 

 

[Hodgheg]

Latest bbc forecast shows nothing too much happening until tomorrow evening. That works perfect for me! Should hopefully have a good view from a friend balcony and a few beers on the side.