Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/03/15 onwards

[Raidan]

Was going to post my thoughts on Friday but decided not to.

I hope a lot of people see something if things are still looking good but I don't think I will.

[Mokidugway]

Not expecting to get anything from it so hardly going to be upset as it inevatably downgrades to warm drizzle ...

[Chris K]

I feel the fax charts become a valuable tool once it starts getting in range. They can help show whether we are likely to see storms galore or a bust. Particularly within 3 days range

 

Still too early for me to get excited, but at least we have had some eye candy appear in the models right?

[dave48]

GFS Ensemble for SE has been improving over the last two days re end of next week, mean now at peak of 13, control & op much better, peaking at 15+

 

Can't recall a system that delivered 15+ uppers that didn't have fairly good thunderstorm activity with it.

 

Could well trend to one of those borderline solutions though...

 

Looks pretty good at this stage though, ECM & GFS seem pretty consistent with it anyway.

 

Edited May 30, 2015 by dave48

[Staffordshire]

And, if you live where I do?

then judging by how the 18z is going... Not good

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

If a lifted index of -8 and 2000j/kg of CAPE + a substantial jet overhead along with a storm chance of 70%+ is deemed not good, then I really don't know what is!

[Ben Sainsbury]

then judging by how the 18z is going... Not good

Nothing says the charts can't improve again! Friday nevertheless is still looking impressive, time will tell...

[Ben Sainsbury]

According to the latest GFS 0z run there seems to be a continuing trend of an eastward shift on Saturday, still widespsread potential on Friday but no further.

Edited May 31, 2015 by Ben Sainsbury

[Staffordshire]

If a lifted index of -8 and 2000j/kg of CAPE + a substantial jet overhead along with a storm chance of 70%+ is deemed not good, then I really don't know what is!

oh no don't get me wrong that is brilliant, I'm just all too wary of where it's heading, and maybe I was in a slightly bad mood about the villa game lol

[Harry]

The 06z is unreal...3000 CAPE with LI of -9 across the SE quarter (I have not checked every single model update but that is a striking upgrade from 3-4 days ago...usually it goes the other way round)

What strikes me even more is the contrast in airmass between the Spanish plume and what is diving out of Greenland behind it...whether eastward shift continues or not, somewhere across Europe are going to be some phenomenally powerful and violent thunderstorms based on those charts.

It is not that common to have models indicating such contrasting air masses over the UK or the NW Europe generally, but adding the active jet into the mix we have a real possibility of supercells, or, even if not supercells in the text book sense, strong severe thunderstorms. An active cold front sweeping through could of itself introducing the potential for intense squalls, if the convection initiated action is limited.

While premature, I'm inclined to maybe cheekily ask for next Friday off just in case something does materialise...the train strike may give me added excuse!!

[Raidan]

I can see this going one of two ways either it won't happen at all and we'll all be in the NSC moaning or it will happen but in the usual areas and the members that usually miss out will miss out.

[Noahjoe]

I can see this going one of two ways either it won't happen at all and we'll all be in the NSC moaning or it will happen but in the usual areas and the members that usually miss out will miss out.

Or there'll be widepread supercells for everyone

[Raidan]

One can wish Noahjoe but personally I don't that will happen.

[Mapantz]

The 06z is unreal...3000 CAPE with LI of -9 across the SE quarter (I have not checked every single model update but that is a striking upgrade from 3-4 days ago...usually it goes the other way round)

Where have you been? Have a look at the previous eye candy that other users were posting, it was better than the 06Z.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

oh no don't get me wrong that is brilliant, I'm just all too wary of where it's heading, and maybe I was in a slightly bad mood about the villa game lol

Yep. I kind of see your frustration!

Would not at all surprise me if we are cam watching by the end of the week tbh.

[Thunderbolt_]

If I remember correctly, wasn't the July plume last year shunted away eastwards at the 4-5 day range, before the models brought it back westwards again, just before the event? If so, it may not be all over yet...

[Harry]

Raidan, experience suggests your pessimism is well placed. The subtlest of model changes will be the difference between heatwave/storms and keeping the status quo. GFS is suggesting a max of 20-21C Thurs, 28-29C Fri, then back down on Sat so the window is very narrow. This however should enhance storm potential if indeed that plume reaches us.

3-4 days out now is generally a more comfortable window but the detail, I'm going to suggest now, will be virtually impossible to nail down.

[Harry]

Where have you been? Have a look at the previous eye candy that other users were posting, it was better than the 06Z.

Fair play - however I did caveat by saying I've not been following too closely the past few days

[Ben Sainsbury]

If I remember correctly, wasn't the July plume last year shunted away eastwards at the 4-5 day range, before the models brought it back westwards again, just before the event? If so, it may not be all over yet...

Yeah I believe you were correct on that note, followed with widespread imports across Southern England.

[Mapantz]

Fair play - however I did caveat by saying I've not been following too closely the past few days

Wise man! It did go a bit bonkers in here.

[IanR]

If I remember correctly, wasn't the July plume last year shunted away eastwards at the 4-5 day range, before the models brought it back westwards again, just before the event? If so, it may not be all over yet...

its good to be optimistic, but I have a bad feeling the NW will get its usual Sweet FA , if we were still in the 80's or 90's I would expect forecasted thunder potential to verify about 70 per cent of the time, which it invariably did,   but things have changed over the the years and now they rarely verify 

at this rate its almost an unprecedented  12 month rolling period I have not heard thunder,  just disgusting,  

[stainesbloke]

Still lots of time for the charts to change back to their previous exciting output. Frustrating how easily plumes and any decent summer weather gets downgraded though these days, with the usual vile Atlantic crap the default setting! We shall see, have Fri off so hoping for a hot sunny day if nothing else.

[Captain Shortwave]

If I remember correctly, wasn't the July plume last year shunted away eastwards at the 4-5 day range, before the models brought it back westwards again, just before the event? If so, it may not be all over yet...

Actually last Julys plume was pretty much modelled like the ECM has show over the past few days, except it was spotted at around 8/9 days out and verified unlike what is likely to happen this time around. The only change we saw towards that event was that instead of breaking down into a westerly pattern we saw the Euro ridge continue to push north and block off the Atlantic causing low pressure to stall over the south of the UK and fill in situ with Scandi heights pushing back over the Uk to set up the very warm following week where temperatures hit the high twenties almost across the whole of the UK (away from eastern coasts). It was as hot in north west Scotland as it was down here.

[Thunderbolt_]

Actually last Julys plume was pretty much modelled like the ECM has show over the past few days, except it was spotted at around 8/9 days out and verified unlike what is likely to happen this time around. The only change we saw towards that event was that instead of breaking down into a westerly pattern we saw the Euro ridge continue to push north and block off the Atlantic causing low pressure to stall over the south of the UK and fill in situ with Scandi heights pushing back over the Uk to set up the very warm following week where temperatures hit the high twenties almost across the whole of the UK (away from eastern coasts). It was as hot in north west Scotland as it was down here.

 

Ahh okay.

[Convective]

Looking through the model discussion it is evident that only the GFS is emphasizing the eastward shift as much as it is. Other models, including MetO, show the plume advecting northwards over more western parts too. All still to play for, and its really only this morning's 06Z run which has truly dampened spirits.