Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Pollen
Sign in to follow this  
Roger J Smith

March 2015 CET forecasts

Recommended Posts

I see nothing special about the month.   I'm going for the century average taking out the one exceptionally cold month    6.8C for me please

Edited by Timmytour

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have posted a table of entries in the contest scoring thread, 72 so far, median 6.7 C.

 

Meanwhile, here are the

 

1981-2010 CET stats for March ...

 

DATE ___ MAX ______________ MIN _____________ CET date ______ CET cum

 

01 Mar ... 10.7 (1878) ... ... ... ... -3.5 (1785) ... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 5.0
02 Mar ... 11.1 (1777) ...  ... ... ... 3.2 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... 4.9
03 Mar ... 11.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... -3.9 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 4.9
04 Mar ... 12.3 (1859) ... ... ... ... -2.9 (1909) ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.8
05 Mar ... 10.9 (1834) ... ... ... ... -2.8 (1786&1909) .. .. 5.4 ... ... ... 5.0

06 Mar ... 12.0 (1989) ... ... ... ... -4.7 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.4 ... ... ... 5.2
07 Mar ... 10.9 (1875) ... ... ... ... -3.3 (1947) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 5.4
08 Mar ... 12.2 (2000) ... ... ... ... -3.1 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.5 ... ... ... 5.5
09 Mar ... 12.4 (1948) ... ... ... ... -3.0 (1917) ... ... ... ... 6.2 ... ... ... 5.6
10 Mar ... 11.6 (1957) ... ... ... ... -2.4 (1883) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... ... 5.7

11 Mar ... 12.6 (1957) ... ... ... ... -1.9 (1847) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 5.8
12 Mar ... 13.4 (1957) ... ... ... ... -2.4 (1785) ... ... ... ... 6.0 ... ... ... 5.8
13 Mar ... 12.8 (1991) ...  ... ... ... -6.5 (1845) ... ... ... .. 6.3 ... ... ... 5.9
14 Mar ... 11.5 (1805) ... ... ... ... -3.7 (1845) ... ... ...  ...6.6 ... ... ... 5.9
15 Mar ... 11.9 (1884) ... ... ... ... -1.6 (1867) ... ... ... ... 7.0 ... ... ... 6.0 

16 Mar ... 13.2 (2004) ... ... ... ... -3.0 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... ... 6.1
17 Mar ... 13.2 (2005) ... ... ... ... -2.2 (1845) ... ... ... ... 7.5 ... ... ... 6.1
18 Mar ... 14.1 (1990) ... ... ... ... -1.3 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.1 ... ... ... 6.2
19 Mar ... 11.8 (1822) ... ... ... ... -0.9 (1814) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 6.2
20 Mar ... 12.3 (1779) ... ... ... ... -1.6 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 6.2

21 Mar ... 11.7 (1927,1931) ... ... -1.6 (1899) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 6.2
22 Mar ... 12.6 (1903) ... ... ... ... -0.9 (1837) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... ... 6.3
23 Mar ... 12.1 (1852,1945) ... ... -0.8 (1837,1899) ......  6.9 ... ... ... 6.3
24 Mar ... 13.4 (1776) ... ... ... ... -0.6 (1879) ... ... ... ... 7.4 ... ... ... 6.4 
25 Mar ... 13.9 (1777) ... ... ... ... -1.3 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.3 ... ... ... 6.4

26 Mar ... 14.6 (1777) ...  ... ... ... -0.3 (1879,1901) ..... 7.2 ... ... ... 6.4
27 Mar ... 14.8 (1777) ... ... ... ...0.1 (1901) ... ... ... ...7.1 ... ... ... 6.4
28 Mar ... 12.6 (1822,1998) ... ... -0.3 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... ... 6.5
29 Mar ... 13.4 (1813) ... ... ... ... -0.7 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... ... 6.5
30 Mar ... 13.4 (1920) ..... ... ... ... 0.0 (1799) ... ... ... ... 7.6 ... ... ... 6.5

31 Mar ... 13.8 (1815) ... ... ... ... -0.8 (1799) ... ... ... ... 8.0 ... ... ... 6.6 

Edited by Roger J Smith
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6.8c to the 1st

 

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry I am late as well 7.1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6.8c to the 1st

 

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

 

SS

 

This is the third month in a row the first day has stood out.....

I have got the CET at 4.8C from the three sites.

 

Certainly 6.8C looks and feels 'wrong'. The Midlands area had extensive hail and sleet yesterday and Northern  England had snow. I am living in Birmingham and had 0.0C at midnight (this morning)  with extensive frost..... and then snow fell and settled around the Midlands  at 07:00 to 09:00. this morning (still the 1st as far as the CET is concerned)... 6.8C just doesn't feel correct.

Maybe for London!!!

 

 

MIA  

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's because of the minimum, MIA. It was 5.2C yesterday, recorded before the cold arrived yesterday

Is the minimum not just the lowest recorded temperatures in the zone on the day, regardless of when they occur? Seems odd that there is a "cut off" time for min/max temperatures? Surely that's not correct?

I suspect I'm missing something...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CET figure skewed by the mild night on Saturday, certainly yesterday and today have seen supressed maxima for all, noticeably so in the north. We haven't got above 4 degrees yet this month..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is the minimum not just the lowest recorded temperatures in the zone on the day, regardless of when they occur? Seems odd that there is a "cut off" time for min/max temperatures? Surely that's not correct?

I suspect I'm missing something...

 

The minimum is recorded between 9am the day before, and 9am of the day it's used for. It can result in some daily averages that seem out of kilter with how the day actually felt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What is up  with Temperature Tracker... Not displaying any updates...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5.6c to the 2nd

 

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The minimum today is 1.6C while maxima look like reaching the mid 6s, so a drop to 5.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

5.2C to the 4th (5.4)
5.2C to the 5th (5.6)
5.4C to the 6th (5.9)
5.9C to the 7th (9.3)
6.5C to the 8th (10.3)
6.8C to the 9th (9.7)
7.1C to the 10th (9.7)
7.3C to the 11th (9.3)
7.4C to the 12th (8.3)
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For comparison here are some running values from the March 12 thread..

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72641-march-cet/page-5

 

7C to the 5th

7.3C to the 10th

7.4C to the 15th

7.4C to the 20th

8C to the 24th

8.6C to the 30th 

 

Adjustments made it 8.3C.

 

One can see that after the initial warm start, things stayed pretty static from the 5th-20th before the real warm spell.

 

From the post above, it looks like we'll have caught up by around the 10th.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5.2c to the 3rd

 

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's because of the minimum, MIA. It was 5.2C yesterday, recorded before the cold arrived yesterday

 

BFTV

 

Thanks for the response. You have echoed my post. The minima is miles too high. 

 

The minima here for the 1st, was 0.0C recorded at midnight on sunday evening/night.

 

You are correct that minima recorded was incorrect. That was the point of my post.

 

I also checked the three stations (Stoneyhurst, Rothamstead and Pershore) and apart from Rothampstead(min 5.5C), the other  two nearly reached 0C and did infact do so for Stoneyhorst..

.

The cold air arrived about midday on sunday (1st) here  (just after it reached Ireland, with the hail and sleet and snow that you had in Ireland on sunday morning). About 3 hours later it hit the Midlands with sleet and quite a bit of hail in the afternoon.The temp fell from 7.1 to 3.4C in 10 minutes here about 16:00 and just drifted lower all evening as the skies cleared. . So to pretend that the cold air didn' t reach  here until the next morning is incorrect for the central midlands and Northern England where some places even experienced snowfall  on sunday.

 

I agree that Rothampstead may have just about averaged 6.7C, but that it is the extreme eastern edge of the midlands (I regard it as nearly London) hence my comments  above.

I worked the CET out from those 3 stations at 4.7C not 6.7C as recorded on the temp CET dataset.

 

Expect the third consecutive downward adjustment this month.to the CET.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BFTV

 

Thanks for the response. You have echoed my post. The minima is miles too high. 

 

The minima here for the 1st, was 0.0C recorded at midnight on sunday evening/night.

 

You are correct that minima recorded was incorrect. That was the point of my post.

 

I also checked the three stations (Stoneyhurst, Rothamstead and Pershore) and apart from Rothampstead(min 5.5C), the other  two nearly reached 0C and did infact do so for Stoneyhorst..

.

The cold air arrived about midday on sunday (1st) here  (just after it reached Ireland, with the hail and sleet and snow that you had in Ireland on sunday morning). About 3 hours later it hit the Midlands with sleet and quite a bit of hail in the afternoon.The temp fell from 7.1 to 3.4C in 10 minutes here about 16:00 and just drifted lower all evening as the skies cleared. . So to pretend that the cold air didn' t reach  here until the next morning is incorrect for the central midlands and Northern England where some places even experienced snowfall  on sunday.

 

I agree that Rothampstead may have just about averaged 6.7C, but that it is the extreme eastern edge of the midlands (I regard it as nearly London) hence my comments  above.

I worked the CET out from those 3 stations at 4.7C not 6.7C as recorded on the temp CET dataset.

 

Expect the third consecutive downward adjustment this month.to the CET.

 

On March 2nd, you said:  I am living in Birmingham and had 0.0C at midnight (this morning)  with extensive frost

 

That 0.0C was recorded after the cut off time for the minimum for the 1st, which was 0900 on the 28th of February, to 0900 on the 1st of March. The CET region was still under the influence of mild air during that time.

 

So to be clear (I think this is right at least), the CET minimum for the 1st was recorded between 0900 on Feb 28th to 0900 on March 1st, while the maximum was from 0900 on March 1st to 0900 on March 2nd. The min value of 5.2C fits in with that, as does the max of 8.5. as the cold air didn't arrive until later in the day on the 1st, giving the mild minimum and leaving enough time for the maximum to climb a little too.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What is the reason for doing it that way? Surely a midnight to midnight method would be less hassle, and entirely representative of the temperatures recorded on the day in question.

The current method essentially encompasses two days worth of temperatures for one, with the window for the minima mostly on the previous day (although the likely lowest temperature will typically fall on the "correct" day, between midnight and 9am).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5.2c to the 4th

 

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What is the reason for doing it that way? Surely a midnight to midnight method would be less hassle, and entirely representative of the temperatures recorded on the day in question.

The current method essentially encompasses two days worth of temperatures for one, with the window for the minima mostly on the previous day (although the likely lowest temperature will typically fall on the "correct" day, between midnight and 9am).

 

The way BFTV has explained it looks very strange to me also.

Why would we take a minimum from one 24 hour period and a maximum for the next and say it represents the temperature for the second day?

 

Anyone on here know for certain?

 

MIA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can always email them to find out?

 

BFTV

I have Emailed them...

Will let you know.

 

MIA

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×