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Moderate Tropical Storm Fundi

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A new tropical depression has formed in the Mozambique channel, to the west of southern Madagascar. The system consists of a large, though slightly broken convective band on the northeastern side of the system. This band is causing a widespread precipitation event over the west coast of Madagascar. Given below is a Dvorak satellite image of the system:

post-20885-0-99635500-1423215077_thumb.g

Dvorak satellite image of 09S. The image does not auto-update itself.

The approximate location of the center is denoted by the red cross (by using CIMSS as a guide). Note that convection on the southwestern half of the system is very sparse, giving the system a very asymmetric appearance.

The forecast of RSMC la Reunion expects the system to curve to the south from an initial southeastward motion, avoiding landfall on Madagascar. However, given that most of the convection associated with the system is located to the northeast of the depression, Madagascar may be affected to a significant extent by this system (both by precipitation and waves). Thereafter, the system will continue to curve to the southwest.

Regarding intensity, TD 09 will intensify into a severe tropical storm (winds between 55 an 71 kt; 1 minute mean), after which it will transition into an extratropical storm as it nears cooler waters.

post-20885-0-66385300-1423215493_thumb.p

Forecast of RSMC la Reunion for 09S.

Sources:

www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92S/92S_floater.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales

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09 has now been upgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm Fundi by MeteoFrance, and JTWC are now also issuing warnings. Fundi has winds of 35kts. The storm's eastern banding features are drenching western Madagascar. Fundi is very close to the coast but the LLCC is expected to remain offshore as the storm heads southwards along the western flank of a ridge to the east. Moderate shear, but warm sea temps should allow some steady intensification over the next couple of days before Fundi runs into cooler waters and higher shear.

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Fundi has cleared Madagascar and moved over open waters. The storm has strengthened slightly, with winds of 40kts according to JTWC. As Fundi continues to slip south, it will begin extratropical transition over cooler waters and increased shear.

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