Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat


Nick L

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

a quick update, had a quick look at the 12z NMM output, and yes, an MCS is on the cards for tomorrow evening IMO.....deep layer shear, an abundance of SBCAPE & mixed layer CAPE, a warm moist air flow, strong 925hpa wind flow and a mesolow forming.....copious rainfall and plenty of lightning me thinks

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

a quick update, had a quick look at the 12z NMM output, and yes, an MCS is on the cards for tomorrow evening IMO.....deep layer shear, an abundance of SBCAPE & mixed layer CAPE, a warm moist air flow, strong 925hpa wind flow and a mesolow forming.....copious rainfall and plenty of lightning me thinks

Where? Will that happen over here?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

I'd actually disagree with this......storms this evening and overnight will become elevated, indeed I'd wager storms on the eastern flank of this complex are already elevated, as such surface heating (or lack of overnight) won't be a factor as it the middle trop that is/will destabalize

just to add though, in all likely hood, storms that fire tomorrow afternoon will be surface based (and potentially severe) and then in the evening a more organized complex of rain/storms will trundle north, and this will be elevated in nature.....I haven't checked the parameters for this more organized complex since yesterday, but as of yesterday it was in association with considerable deep layer shear and a strong LLJ which would be conducive to an MCS developing....(this might have changed though since my last model output perusal yesterday)

 

the 12z NMM should be out in the next few minutes/now so I'll have a look and post my thoughts for what they're worth a bit later

 

Thanks AJ, good to have your input as an alternative suggestion to my own.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Thanks AJ, good to have your input as an alternative suggestion to my own.

yep the more viewpoints the merrier....after all, I could be waffling a load of old nonsense.....lol

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

if only it was dark you would be able to see the lightning from the south coast!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Beginning to think Cornwall will miss most of the action now. Devon and Somerset in particular look to do very well imo. Not enough Easterly motion to drag storms this way. They turn quite easterly tomorrow but it seems the winds will have swung round to more southerly or south westerly in the upper levels before the rain arrives. We really need our weather to come off from terrestrail land (France) not the sea for any storms really.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Estofex have the entire region under a level 1 warning, and for us in Som/BANES and Wilts, a level 2 for tomorrow!!

 

http://estofex.org/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Estofex have the entire region under a level 1 warning, and for us in Som/BANES and Wilts, a level 2 for tomorrow!!

 

http://estofex.org/

No level 1 in the far W of Kernow. :(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Can someone tell me if pompey going to get some storms thanks

I think you're in a great place for some. I can't promise you'll definitely get one, but you'd be incredibly unlucky to miss out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Can someone tell me if pompey going to get some storms thanks

 

Do you have this Saturday's lottery numbers handy in return.  :gathering:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

I really hope I can at least see some lightning or hear some thunder tonight, an overhead thunderstorm is a bonus! All I have now is dead calm, flipping sweltering and just black cloud to my S/SSE/SE but no flashes yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Radars check, Satellite imagery check, cool drink at hand check, now all we need now is Mother Nature to deliver the goods.

 

No despondency from me until Saturday has arrived when I won't seriously be peeing my hard-earned money up the wall on the lottery, best place for that is left in my pocket. Best place for storms will no doubt be elsewhere, but I am a half-full type of person so I best top my drink up then.  :D

 

Plenty of rainfall being the main certainty of the proceeding outlook for the next 24 to 36 hours.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bridgwater,somerset
  • Location: Bridgwater,somerset

Local ITV weather did mention possible storms for Devon and Somerset tonight , but I'm more interested in tomorrow. Hoping for more action in the afternoon as at work in the morn. Feeling quietly confident about tomorrow though. Got my hopes dashed to many times last year , so feel I'm due a good thunder event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

WNW progress on the band to the south is slowing, worryingly. I just hope something develops in the lyme bay area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Definitely starting to look like a near miss for us here now. :( Bodmin East looks fine though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

fresh lightning strikes detected just off Berry Head, Brixham, elevated storms are developing readily in the English Channel

Edited by ajpoolshark
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Westbury wiltshire
  • Location: Westbury wiltshire

just seen the radar woha that was not progged eh :) is it looking good aj ?? ..where is madpantz ..is he smelling a change in the air yet ?? :)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Cornwall is in a gap of nothingness right now. Why is this? Close to throwing in the towel for here but good luck everywhere else. Looked great for here until this afternoon. :(

Edited by Costa Del Fal
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

anybody in lyme bay??

 

fromey

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

just seen the radar woha that was not progged eh :) is it looking good aj ?? ..where is madpantz ..is he smelling a change in the air yet ?? :)

Picking up a few sferics on my detector, around 30 miles away.

I'm not entirely convinced the electrical activity will continue if it gets here, but that rain looks tremendous!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

First signs that parts of South Dorset, Southern Wiltshire and Hampshire and the IOW could get in on some action perhaps within the next hour or so. perfect timing for elevated bits if it works out as suggested. A few tips on places selected as where to watch viewpoints can be found at https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83325-storm-viewing-vantage-points/ if interested. Please feel free to add your own under the appropriate guidelines as discussed.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...