Southeast England & East Anglia - Weather Chat >> 1st Feb Onwards

[john mac]

Is it going to snow on Wednesday? (In Bexley)

Yes there's going to be a snow shower over bexley all day lol

Only jesting!! Too far put to tell at the moment!!

[snowbob]

Is it going to snow on Wednesday? (In Bexley)

not sure but scientists have worked out how long that string actually is

[TEITS]

18Z Euro 4 continues to show snow showers from tomorrow evening onwards around the Wash.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/02/01/basis18/ukuk/prty/15020300_0118.gif

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/02/01/basis18/ukuk/prty/15020312_0118.gif

Edited February 1, 2015 by TEITS

[Whereisthesnow?]

not sure but scientists have worked out how long that string actually is[/quote

Rather walked into that one....

[Neilsouth]

Doesn't look like any snow showers tomorrow, more likely Tuesday onwards... Although I don't go much by the bbc weather, they change every half hour!

[Tamara]

To be fair to Tamara she is very knowledgeable and posts interesting posts.....but most of what she has previously posted has not gone on to happen.

To be honest....I am looking forward to spring now. Cold without snow is just expensive on the heating without any fun. A pleasant 21c day is becoming an increasingly more pleasant thought by the day.

Thank you for your supporting comments

 

This reply is really more to Steve Murr's comments than anything else which are rather disappointing if I am honest - but it does also pick up on the second part of the first sentence of your post.

 

I have very often made weekly summary posts and copied forward these for continuation. On that basis - progress, or otherwise, is easily documented...and transparent to see any mistakes as well as progress too.

 

I don't see myself in any forecasting elite, and have never pretended to be otherwise either. That genuinely seems ridiculous to me

 

In terms of self backing -  it is true that I have tried to provide repeated in depth reasoning in the MOD thread as to why this winter has proved difficult for cold weather and not play any Pied Piper role every time a cold spell appears and then vanish afterwards till the next cold spell.

 

Putting further truth and perspective on what you say about any posts I have made that have not gone on to happen, I can say for certain that the few times that the pattern has amplified this winter, so far, to provide any semblance of cold winter weather, I have pinpointed each of these in advance. I also pinpointed some days back when the next one might be later this month. Time will tell of course.

 

Of course I have not got everything right. People infinitely more qualified than me never get everything right. I got the period around New Year beyond the late December cold snap totally wrong.

 

However, on a personal level, bearing in mind I have tried to do a lot of reading and learning behind the scenes from where I once came from as a novice to this aspect of my long interest in the weather - I have a taken a lot of happiness from this bearing in mind how very very little at all I knew 9/10 yrs back when it came to weather pattern modelling.

 

I understand that making prolific posts leads to greater criticism - and criticism where it is valid is to be expected, and is fair. However, on the basis that I simply enjoy trying to test out some of the understanding I have worked on, then I think this should not be confused with competitive forecasting ego.

 

I don't suffer from any 'bust forecast syndrome'... because I am not any prolific forecaster anyway.....

 

I would genuinely prefer to get a 'forecast' wrong and learn from it. I'm not in any competition to win. Its about enjoying learning more about a major subject of interest - and the fun of testing this learning by making posts.  But there isn't any prize on net weather for getting any forecast right.

 

I made a post the other day on the MOD thread about this sort of competitiveness

 

Lets hope that this week provides some surprises for many of us. Hopefully also for sea level places close to the Thames Estuary

 

@snowbob, thanks - no real insight. Just that some definite NSSC possibilities are there this week. Fingers crossed   I have some vested interests also for a TSS to occur  as well as my usual all stations via Canterbury, Ashford, Tenterden to Hastings streamer

Edited February 1, 2015 by Tamara

[SnoopDog1982]

Thank you for your supporting comments

 

This reply is really more to Steve Murr's comments than anything else which are rather disappointing if I am honest - but it does also pick up on the second part of your post.

 

I have very often made weekly summary posts and copied forward these for continuation. On that basis - progress, or otherwise, is easily documented...and transparent to see any mistakes as well as progress too.

 

I don't see myself in any forecasting elite, and have never pretended to be otherwise either. That genuinely seems ridiculous to me

 

In terms of self backing -  it is true that I have tried to provide repeated in depth reasoning in the MOD thread as to why this winter has proved difficult for cold weather and not play any Pied Piper role every time a cold spell appears and then vanish afterwards till the next cold spell.

 

Putting further truth and perspective on what you say about any posts I have made that have not gone on to happen, I can say for certain that the few times that the pattern has amplified this winter, so far, to provide any semblance of cold winter weather, I have pinpointed each of these in advance. I also pinpointed some days back when the next one might be later this month. Time will tell of course.

 

Of course I have not got everything right. People infinitely more qualified than me never get everything right. I got the period around New Year beyond the late December cold snap totally wrong.

 

However, on a personal level, bearing in mind I have tried to do a lot of reading and learning behind the scenes from where I once came from as a novice to this aspect of my long interest in the weather - I have a taken a lot of happiness from this bearing in mind how very very little at all I knew 9/10 yrs back when it came to weather pattern modelling.

 

I understand that making prolific posts leads to greater criticism - and criticism where it is valid is to be expected, and is fair. However, on the basis that I simply enjoy trying to test out some of the understanding I have worked on, then I think this should not be confused with competitive forecasting ego.

 

I don't suffer from any 'bust forecast syndrome'... because I am not any prolific forecaster anyway.....

 

I would genuinely prefer to get a 'forecast' wrong and learn from it. I'm not in any competition to win. Its about enjoying learning more about a major subject of interest - and the fun of testing this learning by making posts.  But there isn't any prize on net weather for getting any forecast right.

 

I made a post the other day on the MOD thread about this sort of competitiveness

 

Lets hope that this week provides some surprises for many of us. Hopefully also for sea level places close to the Thames Estuary

 

Excellent post!

[snowbob]

Great post tamara

Good on you

Your posts are fantastic and very informative.

Long may they continue.

Just get the feeling your last paragraph was a hint to something you see brewing,

Any insight or have I got that completely wrong.

Edited February 1, 2015 by snowbob

[Daniel*]

Great post Tamara you may not know it but many aspire to be like you.

In my years of viewing on Netweather I've never taken anything as a dead cert - its a evolving situation you cannot stop a train eh? all what you do is greatly appreciated regardless of the eventual outcome, you help hold the lamp when it is most dark. You make the forum a better place, and it would be a great loss without you, so please do not let past lets say mishaps get you down, you only say on behalf and what you say is top notch, the first person has a mind of its own... even in 50 years time I see no major advancement, with medium-long range forecasting.

Edited February 2, 2015 by Daniel*

[TEITS]

 

I would genuinely prefer to get a 'forecast' wrong and learn from it. I'm not in any competition to win. Its about enjoying learning more about a major subject of interest - and the fun of testing this learning by making posts.  But there isn't any prize on net weather for getting any forecast right.

 

I

Spot on Tamara.

 

My forecasting method differs hugely from yours because mine is more instinctive rather than based on science. I have been wrong nearly every time this winter but I don't lose any sleep over it because I enjoy what I do.

[2810lollypop]

met office have me down for heavy snow on Thursday from 6am till 3pm woop woop .I just cant wait to see if it materialises , night all

[Pixel]

Thank you for your supporting comments

<snip>

 

I would genuinely prefer to get a 'forecast' wrong and learn from it. I'm not in any competition to win. Its about enjoying learning more about a major subject of interest - and the fun of testing this learning by making posts.  But there isn't any prize on net weather for getting any forecast right.

 

 

Keep up the great posts Tamara - I don't understand everything you say but they help in my own quest to learn and i enjoy that - Thank you for your interpretation on the trends and influences.  Forecasting what is going to happen next on any scale is indeed a challenge (-:

 

I like weather surprises... even if it doesn't snow 

[Neilsouth]

 

1hr 02:28

[Sno' problem]

Excellent post Tamara, I wholeheartedly agree with you and keep going with your excellent, thought provoking posts, forecasts and comparisons.

 

Isn't this what this forum is all about??
 

[lassie23]

 

1hr 02:28

Long forecast

 

met office have me down for heavy snow on Thursday from 6am till 3pm woop woop .I just cant wait to see if it materialises , night all

Hope it happens, heavy snow for that long should hopefully settle. -1.1 c at the moment, my record since being on net weather is -2. something or other, wonder if i'll beat it. :cold:

[alexisj9]

Curently -1.2 here, not bad for a coastal area, if only another band of showers would turn up from no where like last night now. 

[SMU]

Just recapping any confusion on my post -

The weather ( forecast & analogues ) even excluding the OPI - suggested that the 'background' signal of weak el nino, the east qbo & continued development of the ice anomaly over the northern part of russia + the november stratospheric temp anomaly over russia ALL pointed to a cold blocked winter

The reality though is the slab of vortex hasnt budged. There has been zero blocking, just very transient mid level blocks. So whilst the background always suggested otherwise the only link we ever needed to see was the AO data, if thats trending more than +1 positive forget full blown winter in the UK, this is especially aparent for the SE -

We are not like the north where they have some decent elevation, our hills are stuck around 100m at best (apart from one or 2 higher spots ) & so we need deep cold to see any snow.

Deep cold for us only comes from the east or a very pure polar flow, of which neither have arrived this winter - however perhaps we have a very brief window in the next 3-4 days.

In terms of Tamara - if you think its personal appologies for that , however At some point we have to draw a line under the optimism & rubber stamp it with realism & under that umbrella all of the forums joint analysis at the top level ( excluding the met ) have failed to predict another poor winter.

Also we can blindly follow our own thoughts even underpin it with science however if that method isnt working & it hasnt since december then the same method will continue to fail for the rest if the winter as im afraid there are more influential factors that are overiding any potential 'cold' signal-

Never mind - its only weather.

I think my times of posting here for winter 14/15 are dwindling - interest is now low & perhaps due to current location @ greenhithe which @3m ASL is sh*te for snow

We will barely scrape a frost as I am probably 200m from the thames.

Fingers crossed for this snow window in the week , we have 5 -6 weeks availabilty left so still some room for snow to come.

Lets hope for a dramatic model reversal a la 2010 in the next few days .....

Regards all

S

Edited February 2, 2015 by Steve Murr

[Captain Shortwave]

Clear skies to start here, -3C

 

Euro 4 suggesting that it will be a mainly dry day away from north and east Norfolk. Showers will push south into the region tonight.

Lets hope for a little luck over the coming few days.

[Roy]

Clear skies to start here, -3C

 

Euro 4 suggesting that it will be a mainly dry day away from north and east Norfolk. Showers will push south into the region tonight.

Lets hope for a little luck over the coming few days.

The weather by Carol Kirkwood didn't look to optimistic. The term "wintry showers" was back on the agenda and she said "rain" clearing South East tomorrow morning....also no mention whatsover of any precipitation on Wednesday. In fact no sign of the winds veering to the North East, it looked liked they would be more North West around South East. 

The weather by Carol Kirkwood didn't look to optimistic. The term "wintry showers" was back on the agenda and she said "rain" clearing South East tomorrow morning....also no mention whatsover of any precipitation on Wednesday. In fact no sign of the winds veering to the North East, it looked liked they would be more North West around South East. 

I suppose there's still time for change again. But I never find Carol Kirkwood's weather forecasts very easy to understand tbh. Always quite vague. Maybe it's because it's so early and they haven't gathered all the information they need from the models?

[Snowman.]

Just recapping any confusion on my post -

The weather ( forecast & analogues ) even excluding the OPI - suggested that the 'background' signal of weak el nino, the east qbo & continued development of the ice anomaly over the northern part of russia + the november stratospheric temp anomaly over russia ALL pointed to a cold blocked winter

The reality though is the slab of vortex hasnt budged. There has been zero blocking, just very transient mid level blocks. So whilst the background always suggested otherwise the only link we ever needed to see was the AO data, if thats trending more than +1 positive forget full blown winter in the UK, this is especially aparent for the SE -

We are not like the north where they have some decent elevation, our hills are stuck around 100m at best (apart from one or 2 higher spots ) & so we need deep cold to see any snow.

Deep cold for us only comes from the east or a very pure polar flow, of which neither have arrived this winter - however perhaps we have a very brief window in the next 3-4 days.

In terms of Tamara - if you think its personal appologies for that , however At some point we have to draw a line under the optimism & rubber stamp it with realism & under that umbrella all of the forums joint analysis at the top level ( excluding the met ) have failed to predict another poor winter.

Also we can blindly follow our own thoughts even underpin it with science however if that method isnt working & it hasnt since december then the same method will continue to fail for the rest if the winter as im afraid there are more influential factors that are overiding any potential 'cold' signal-

Never mind - its only weather.

I think my times of posting here for winter 14/15 are dwindling - interest is now low & perhaps due to current location @ greenhithe which @3m ASL is sh*te for snow

We will barely scrape a frost as I am probably 200m from the thames.

Fingers crossed for this snow window in the week , we have 5 -6 weeks availabilty left so still some room for snow to come.

Lets hope for a dramatic model reversal a la 2010 in the next few days .....

Regards all

S

 

Hi Steve,

 

What do you think on the possibility of retrogression towards the end of Feb, it's something the CFS has been hinting.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2015020118/run1m/cfs-0-534.png?18

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2015020100/run/cfs-0-834.png?00

 

This signal has been going since about the start of Jan. Maybe I'm being optimistic but the CFS definitely has that trend going.

[Roy]

BUT South East local weather was a little more optimistic and used the term "snow flurries" for tonight. And the "possibility" of snow showers on Wednesday. They were "keeping a close eye on it"

[TEITS]

Euro 4 continues to indicate snow showers tonight/tomorrow.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/02/02/basis00/ukuk/prty/15020306_0200.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/02/02/basis00/ukuk/prty/15020312_0200.gif

 

This suggests they could even reach London before becoming restricted to the Wash.

 

Nothing notable forecast though but some may see a dusting overnight. Better than a kick in the teeth!

[Essexgooner]

BBC Weather says possible snow showers on Wednesday, something we are keeping an eye on.....hardly convincing though and the term just showers isnt encouraging  

[Big Dave]

Barely a frost to scrape off the car.

[Daniel*]

Barely a frost to scrape off the car.

This is because the Dp are very low it just zaps out the moisture, cold here temp -2C and Dp -5C