Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[Summer Sun]

Although ECM Op shows high pressure moving in for the start of spring it looks a tad optimistic at this stage if we compare it to its own ens and the GFS ens

 

ECM Op

 

 

ECM and GFS ens at day 10 (March 1st)

 

 

Meanwhile the met office still seem to think high pressure could build for most of the UK during March looking at today's update bringing more frequent and prolonged settled conditions, with many places dry, and often sunny

 

So probably a week to 10 days of unsettled weather then a gradual improvement as we move into March given the ever strengthening sun it would feel increasingly pleasant by day if you have some sunshine and light winds

[Eugene]

Looks like another polar outbreak later next week, cool and unsettled sums up the next two weeks with the odd colder drier day here and there, no sign of any anticyclonic spells, looking forward to a lively March.

[Eugene]

GFS trend setter or outlier?

 

 

 

Cool and unsettled GFS 06Z ensembles there.

[Mucka]

All looking hopeful that this upcoming unsettled zonal period will be short lived. Much as expected as that has been the signal all winter, with 7-10 days of shifting patterns. The JMA week 2 has the heights slowly building from the south and the week 3-4 mean is promising for HP to take over:

 

Y201502.D1812.png

 

Would not expect anything too cold in early March from that anomaly.

 

Looking at the D16 GEFS and absolutely no signal for any HLB. Just variations on where the jet traverses; no clear signal yet: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=384

 

The ECM ensembles suggesting average to above temps for London mostly for the next 15 days:  ensemble-tt6-london (1).gif

 

Looking forward to Spring as another poor Winter for the south tapers off with a whimper.

 

Actually they suggest a little below average to average for the time of year. The Feb average is 7C but late Feb it is more like 8C

[NorthYorksWeather]

Just noticed this on the NMM, suggests widespread front edge snowfall on Sunday, however I think it will be mainly a temporary high ground event (200/300m plus)

 

Edited February 19, 2015 by vizzy2004

[IDO]

Actually they suggest a little below average to average for the time of year. The Feb average is 7C but late Feb it is more like 8C

 

I always add 1-2c to ECM temps as they are notoriously under cooked. Today for instance they were wrong by -0.8c for London and that was based on the 0z run!!!

 

The upcoming 10 days looks average fare TBH for the south, even with the generally below average uppers. The colder uppers are mostly during the dry periods so if the sun comes out temps will not feel too bad. The briefer milder upper flows looks like they will be accompanied by the rain. For the south 20% snow chances at best in the next 14 days according to the GEFS so very unlikely for sea level:

 

 

Up north on hills chances are better and possibly fleetingly to lower ground, however the main weather synoptic are the storms at D4 and D7. Lots of wet and windy weather with uppers modified as the storms cross, before the colder/wintry showery upper flow follows through. Looking at the 4 or 5 fronts that cross the UK on this run, only one, at D11 (likely to change) is not rain, this one is rain with back edge snow. 

 

All models are showing good consensus for the next 10 days (at least):

 

 

[Frosty.]

Those of us hoping the met office are right about March becoming anticyclonic will probably like P17 on this evenings GEFS 12z with high pressure building in strongly from T+240 onwards.

Edited February 19, 2015 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is still looking pretty unsettled at T+240 hours with power to add, it appears as though another polar maritime blast is incoming which would be the third Pm outbreak of the upcoming very unsettled spell. I had a good look through the Gefs 12z perturbations tonight and there were many more unsettled than settled at day 10, P17 with its anticyclonic outlook was in the minority.

[knocker]

Tonight's ECM anomaly at T240 has the Azores ridge orientated ENE clipping the south of the UK which is why the more unsettled weather is still showing. The ext eps adjusts this (much where it had it previously) to more influence the UK and lessens the influence of the trough to the NW. Must keep in mind there is no great consistency at the moment

Edited February 19, 2015 by knocker

[winterof79]

Cool and unsettled GFS 06Z ensembles there.

Just goes to show how futile it is judging every run.Theyre the 12zs now and the op is back in the pack.

[bluearmy]

Whilst the extended ens anomalies continue to extend the ridge across the uk from the sw, it should be noted that the spreads at day 10 on the ECM have a cluster with the jet further south which could mean further diving se of the trough to our se. although not the favourite, it does present potential for the pattern next week to be make resilient that currently modelled and it may last beyond next weekend.

[fergieweather]

EC Monthly continues previous trend signal of rising MSLP to SW by mid-March. Continues to look hopeful for a more benign spell establishing as we close-out the astronomical winter.

[Weather-history]

EC Monthly continues previous trend signal of rising MSLP to SW by mid-March. Continues to look hopeful for a more benign spell establishing as we close-out the astronomical winter.

Something more important, hopeful favourable conditions to view the eclipse.

[IDO]

The GEM for a couple of days have tried to build from the SW around D9-10 and the GFS op has run with that this morning as well. From D8-16 HP in charge of the UK:

 

 

 

This was also hinted at on yesterday's 0z so not sure its the "new" GFS bias or it could be a case there are a couple of clusters at that range and the op is flipping between the two. Nice run though, but at the moment unlikely as it is a bit on its own:

 

 

ECM keeps it changeable to D10 with little sustained for either colder or warmer aficionados:

 

 

From D11 the GEFS slowly hinting at a N/S split as the mean highlights:

 

 D16: 

 

So the most likely scenario is a continuation between the battle of the Azores and the lower heights from the NW, but no real clarity as to where the jet sits. However there remains very little signs of any HLB'ing. 

[Frosty.]

A beautiful end to the Gfs 00z op this morning, pleasantly mild early spring anticyclonic conditions.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean is trending towards that lovely anticyclonic outlook which the met office are very confident of for most of March, a little bit of ebb and flow as the Azores high tries to build in, still some resistance from lower heights to the NW but I think the high will claim victory before mid March.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A showery NW airflow will develop across the UK later today and tonight followed by a weak ridge of High pressure crossing from the West through the latter half of tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and very windy weather seems likely  with strong winds and heavy rain or wintry showers before Southern areas in particular become drier and more settled later

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow strengthening across the Atlantic over the coming days towards and over the UK with always a tendency for the flow to dip South over NW Europe. Later in the period the flow trends back North of the UK as pressure rises from the South

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a period of strong West or NW winds to come over the next 3-4 days with a spell of rain and wintry showers following to all areas early next week. The trend thereafter is for the unsettled and changeable conditions to slowly retreat North to Northern areas as High pressure develops close to the South. Later still the whole of the UK is shown to become settled and dry as a large High pressure area sits to the East with daytime sunshine transferring to cold and clear conditions by night with frost and fog patches.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is more restrictive on its improvements through the second half of the run with all of the next working week windy, rather cold and changeable for all before the trend is for the North to continue with rain at times under a Westerly flow while the South sees longer dry spells with High pressure close by to the South. Conditions would turn less cold generally later.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show an 80% group who stand by High pressure either close to the South or SW with a strong influence near to Southern Britain with a westerly flow over the North and West with rain at times in average temperatures. The other 20% show a more chilly NW flow with showers.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a rather cold start and probably end to the next working week too with squally showers, heavy and wintry at times in the North and West. It will be very windy with Westerly gales and a more prolonged spell of rain in the middle of the week as a new Low and frontal set cross the UK from the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning mirror the raw output data from UKMO well with a strong and chilly West then NW flow next week with wintry showers preceded by wet and windy weather from active troughs crossing East on Sunday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM shows a changeable 10 days of weather to come with a spell of severe gales and wintry showers early in the week. thereafter the worst of the Westerly winds and unsettled conditions becomes more notable across the North while pressure rises over the South with less windy weather and longer dry spells between very occasional belts of rain here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the next week as unsettled, rather cold and often very windy with spells of rain alternating with showers, wintry on hills in the North especially early in the week. Some drier interludes are expected later especially over the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning looks rather less keen on developing High pressure close enough to the South to prevent all areas continuing to see spells of rain and showers in a brisk westerly flow right out to the end of the run. The very worst conditions though will be early next week with gales and wintry showers, a process which could be repeated late in the week before less cold air moves across the UK with the heaviest rain then likely towards the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart this morning continues to paint a synoptic pattern that has been repeated several times this Winter in our unsettled spells in that there is likely to be an Icelandic Low pressure in 10 days with High pressure near the Azores with Westerly winds and rain at times predominating across the UK in average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are maintaining the likelihood of High pressure building back North from the South as we move into the second week likely developing a more North/ South split in weather conditions across the UK later.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.5 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM just about leads the field at 89.8 pts over UKMO at 88.5 pts and GFS at 86.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 61.6 pts over GFS's 60.2 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.5 pts over GFS at 39.6.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The trend towards a build of pressure again from the South or SW is still on course to take place within the models from about a week or so. In the meantime conditions look like being quite volatile and windy with gales, severe in places and a spell of rain on Sunday followed by squally wintry showers. Through the week it will slowly become less chilly as winds back Westerly again with more rain followed by showers, this time more focused on Northern and Western Britain though all areas will continue to see some rain. Through the second week more of a split between the output is shown all revolving around how much influence High pressure to the South and SW extends it's influence up across the British isles. The most supported option is for High pressure to locate either close to the SW or South with something of a westerly feed continuing across all areas with some rain at times in the North and west while all areas probably become less chilly with average temperatures and a lot of cloud across the UK. The GFS operational goes further with this rise in pressure and locates a centre over or to the East and this would result in settled weather for all with frosts and fog patches at night and bright, sunny days but it is in the minority at the moment. So after a period of volatility it looks like for Southern Britain at least the Azores High will again become dominant with benign weather returning with time and if not bringing us particularly Springlike conditions at least preventing any excursion into anything particularly wintry either.  

Issued at 08:30 Friday February 20th 2015

[mushymanrob]

nice to see springramping here!

 

and the gfs is pretty persistent atm in bringing in high pressure later in its runs

 

(day 11, midway between day 8-14)

 

trouble is (day 11)

 

 

 

currently no support from the noaa.

 

 

[Frosty.]

GFS 06z op shows good continuity from the 0z with the Azores high again building in strongly with plenty of pleasant early spring sunshine and light winds but with chilly nights, cold enough for a touch of frost and mist / fog patches.

[joggs]

Really hope the models dont drop the trend of hp nearby late in the runs.Wanting spring now after a frustrating winter season personally on this thread.Cuedos to meto this winter.Also a rethink of certain drivers for the nh winter,opi,strat etc.Been interesting in that respect.

Edited February 20, 2015 by joggs

[Frosty.]

GEFS 06z mean shows the Azores anticyclone building in across the south of the UK during the first week of March with strengthening early spring sunshine and light winds, feeling pleasant by day but a touch of air frost / mist or fog patches overnight and early mornings, it would take a little longer for the north of the UK to join in with the fine conditions further south but the trend is good and it ties in with the met office extended outlook.

Edited February 20, 2015 by Frosty.

[Gael_Force]

Really hope the models dont drop the trend of hp nearby late in the runs.Wanting spring now after a frustrating winter season personally on this thread.Cuedos to meto this winter.Also a rethink of certain drivers for the nh winter,opi,strat etc.Been interesting in that respect.

This is more apt for a winter autopsy thread but it is hardly kudos to the UKMO on its own. All the long range modelling was pointing to a positive temp anomaly for western Europe. If some chose to ignore in favour of other less well tested/understood predictions - that is their prerogative - but the outcome should not have been unexpected!

[fergieweather]

GEFS 06z mean shows the Azores anticyclone building in across the south of the UK during the first week of March with strengthening early spring sunshine and light winds, feeling pleasant by day but a touch of air frost / mist or fog patches overnight and early mornings, it would take a little longer for the north of the UK to join in with the fine conditions further south but the trend is good and it ties in with the met office extended outlook.

 

Finally, an emergent theme now for March temperatures through the combined EC Monthly and GloSea5 output: essentially likely cooler than average beginning and perhaps also end of the month; whereas above average for a fair chunk in the middle. Here's hoping...!

[Summer Sun]

GFS brings the high in as early as next weekend on this run with spring starting fairly settled and mild

 

 

Similar to the ECM Op yesterday which was going for a rise in pressure around this time, further runs needed though it this maybe a tad optimistic

Edited February 20, 2015 by Summer Sun

[IDO]

Finally, an emergent theme now for March temperatures through the combined EC Monthly and GloSea5 output: essentially likely cooler than average beginning and perhaps also end of the month; whereas above average for a fair chunk in the middle. Here's hoping...!

 

 

Yes would be very welcome.

 

The GFS op remains optimistic that the change will start to make inroads by D7:

 

 By D9:

 

D10:   D12: 

 

Earlier than I thought but much like the current zonal period, the models can quickly flip, especially as these transient patterns this winter usually have a shell life of 7-10 days. There must also be a better chance of some HLB'ing with a starting point of a UK MLB rather than a zonal onslaught. The GFS op is settled right out till D16.

 

However early days as to how the next pattern develops from around D7 and GEM shows another possibility: