Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[bluearmy]

Not enough of you on here to notice the potential 'snow event' on ECM days 5/6. That system slides se and dp's ahead aren't bad. No infra model agreement on this feature as yet so we'll hold back on excitement!

[johnholmes]

As someone who uses the NOAA along with ECMEF-GFS anomaly charts, along with looking at other drivers/teleconnections, call them what you prefer, then I have to agree with mushy's sentiments. It is quite possible, even though the anomaly charts are not consistent with each other nor even themselves at times over the last few days, they do suggest that short lived Pm outbreaks are possible, chiefly for the north but, behind a deeper low, then into the south as well albeit briefly. The probability of deepish lows with associated high winds is fairly high in my view. Warm spring like temperatures seem not to be on the menu just yet, other than an occasional day here and there in the next 2 weeks?

[ANYWEATHER]

Not enough of you on here to notice the potential 'snow event' on ECM days 5/6. That system slides se and dp's ahead aren't bad. No infra model agreement on this feature as yet so we'll hold back on excitement!

Perhaps there is potential, but given the poor modelling of late from gfs and ecm and others , perhaps we should in fairness take it with a truck load of salt.....    

[Frosty.]

As someone who uses the NOAA along with ECMEF-GFS anomaly charts, along with looking at other drivers/teleconnections, call them what you prefer, then I have to agree with mushy's sentiments. It is quite possible, even though the anomaly charts are not consistent with each other nor even themselves at times over the last few days, they do suggest that short lived Pm outbreaks are possible, chiefly for the north but, behind a deeper low, then into the south as well albeit briefly. The probability of deepish lows with associated high winds is fairly high in my view. Warm spring like temperatures seem not to be on the menu just yet, other than an occasional day here and there in the next 2 weeks?

I will just add, short lived Pm outbreaks are better than no Pm outbreaks, at last we have a spell of lively and sometimes wintry weather to look forward to from next Sunday onwards.

[Fitzwis]

My apologies if this has already been mentioned but with some of the highest tides of the year expected late next week coupled with the low pressure modeled at present on both ECM and GFS (I haven't seen UKMO's take on possible events yet), things could get very interesting along South and West facing coasts. As ever, more runs are needed before FI may potentially become a harsh reality. 

Edited February 15, 2015 by Fitzwis

[carinthian]

Evening all , interesting developments for a weekend storm from GFS and ECM. A deepening low to move across Southern Britain on Saturday seems to be gathering pace. I am just wondering if the UKMO have this risk in their thoughts, however, the latest runs show a potential development there from all 3 main models. A North Sea surge is possible, but will require more details tomorrow. A mild mid-week for most with increasing cold Pm for the last week of the month.

C

[MR EXTREMES]

We don't need a strong scandi trough, as we saw from the 6z and now the 12z gfs, as long as the depressions are tracking nw/se then I'm happy because we will have generally cold zonality and a risk of snow at times from next Sunday onwards.

PS..well said Tamara, as you know I think your input on netweather is Fantastic...you have filled the void left by Glacier Point..no higher praise is possible :-)

indeed frosty ive been watching the models quietly in the background and the most striking thing is the retreat of the azores high infact its the placement thats most striking.

 

starting the cycle we have seen so often this winter dissplacement of the azores on every model across the board.

so what does this suggest winter is not over infact with the vortex coming into 2 half months of it relentless domination is now going to see if it can rehome itself over to the siberian side this opens the door to blocking trying once again to push nw and certainly not without interest.

 

polar air most certainly making a last ditch effort to finish of winter and certainly the way things are heading possibly opening the door to a cooler colder start of spring.

and with such deep cold to our north and nw then snow will be back cooler colder day and night temps also cold eventually digging in to our east.

 

navgem shows azore pain in the ass being held back polar air starting to approach from the north west.

 

jma at 168hrs look at the azores sorry not today depressions diving southeast pm air and very stormy.

 

ecm has the azores supressed far to the south west.

could be good for the end of feb certainly still interest with in the models.

 

after the start of winter being blasted by higher solar activity things and declined rapidly and i suspect we are now heading into a much longer and lower solar output for sometime.

 

although many will argue my ideas are totally of the mark but i could confidently say that is solar activity was at its lowest point this winter had the hallmarks of a classic just certain aspects did not play ball.

 

next winter i know but if the continued solar drop continues i think the cold winter run will be back.

although we still have the last ditch effort for the end of feb perhaps march and april snowy easter is a possibilty to but of coarse long way to go.

babysteps over the next few days to see if we can get one last blast of wintry weather.

[sunnijim]

Evening all , interesting developments for a weekend storm from GFS and ECM. A deepening low to move across Southern Britain on Saturday seems to be gathering pace. I am just wondering if the UKMO have this risk in their thoughts, however, the latest runs show a potential development there from all 3 main models. A North Sea surge is possible, but will require more details tomorrow. A mild mid-week for most with increasing cold Pm for the last week of the month.C

Countryfile forecast certainly flagged up the possibility of problems for the NW and down some Eastern coasts.

All of the latest developments model wise show again how foolhardy it is to buy into a few seemingly consistant runs past 144hrs on the gfs and ecm,we were to believe we were to be stuck under a conveyer belt of Azores high ridging until months end a couple of days back,this has now been reduced to Tuesday and Wednesday now!

[carinthian]

Countryfile forecast certainly flagged up the possibility of problems for the NW and down some Eastern coasts.

All of the latest developments model wise show again how foolhardy it is to buy into a few seemingly consistant runs past 144hrs on the gfs and ecm,we were to believe we were to be stuck under a conveyer belt of Azores high ridging until months end a couple of days back,this has now been reduced to Tuesday and Wednesday now!

Hi

Did it show any graphics for next weekend ?

[sunnijim]

HiDid it show any graphics for next weekend ?

No,just a summary.unsettled,windy,rain at times for next weekend on a wild sea picture,"we are keeping a close eye on next weekend due to spring tides and wind potential' said Darren Bett. Or very simuler wording.

[damianslaw]

Good to see decent activity in the thread today compared to the last week - always a sign in winter that the models are firmly latching onto a cooling trend (given more members are cold enthusiasts). As many have commented both ECM and GFS are showing a rinse and repeat episode of the theme all winter, azores high waxing and waning bringing either tropical maritime air or polar maritime air, for the week ahead tropical maritime air will reign supreme after a temporary returning polar maritime flow tomorrow, but then a change by Friday as a deep low is forecast to track over the north of the country dropping into the N Sea pulling down chillier polar maritime air for the north by the end of the weekend. As others have said - not great timing given the spring high tides...

 

As we enter the last week of the month, GFS and ECM showing a more amplified flow, with the bottled up cold over NE Canada spilling out into the north atlantic powering up the Jetstream which is forecasted to turn more southerly again.. forcing trough development on a  NW-SE alignment ushering in cold polar air to the north by the end of the month with associated wintry precipitation.

 

Its been a good winter for polar maritime air - and classic text book warm/cold front synoptics, a rarity in recent winters which have either been dominated more by tropical maritime air, or simply arctic maritime/continental air or anticyclonic conditions. Its reminded me a fair bit of winter 03/04 (though unfortunately we haven't managed the classic long draw northerly which occurred in Jan and Feb 04) - still time in March! 

[The PIT]

Funnily enough Fridays development not even mentioned on the week aheads forecast. Not surprising as the track or development isn't certain this far away. GEM and JMA don't play ball and ECM says nay only the GFS is going for it. It'll be interesting too see if later runs remove the feature altogether.

[bluearmy]

so the back end of month trough dropping into europe again picked by the extended eps. what has been inconsistent is how deep and how long for. looks more akin to cold zonal with the azores ridge into the west of europe with mean trouging well to our se.  the day 10/12 period sees low raw dam just to the north of the uk with low slp in tandem. looks like a windy recipe and the term 'secondary features' will no doubt come to life again.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean continues to show an increasing bias through FI towards polar maritime incursions with -5 T850 hPa covering the UK at times and it's nice to see the Azores high well out of the limelight for a change. It looks increasingly like a spell of generally cold zonality is on the way with the jet becoming aligned nw/se..after a few weeks of charts as dull as dirty dish water, a much more interesting and disturbed pattern is on the way.

[mushymanrob]

We don't need a strong scandi trough, as we saw from the 6z and now the 12z gfs, as long as the depressions are tracking nw/se then I'm happy because we will have generally cold zonality and a risk of snow at times from next Sunday onwards.

PS..well said Tamara, as you know I think your input on netweather is Fantastic...you have filled the void left by Glacier Point..no higher praise is possible :-)

But we wont get that karl, as that WOULD depend on a scandi upper trough, the surface lows cant track nw/se without it. The 06zand the 12z both showed a large scandi trough to enable a lengthy period of pm northwesterlies. And who really wants them now unless they lead to a lrolonged cold/snowy spell which they wont? Until the noaa anomaly charts suggest a scandi trough then the current gfs fi chilly regime is unlikely to happen. Sorry old chap,but i firmly believe this will be the case whether straw clut hing coldies like it or not!

[mushymanrob]

I will just add, short lived Pm outbreaks are better than no Pm outbreaks, at last we have a spell of lively and sometimes wintry weather to look forward to from next Sunday onwards.

Short lived pm outbreaks are expected with the noaa anomaly charts, thats normal, but its really nothing to get excited about. At this time of the year is it really better then no outbreaks? Seems like wanting as cold as posdible for the sake of it. I fully get the desire for deep cold and snow, but wanting itt to be a few degrees chillier then what is average is pointless imho.

[Frosty.]

Short lived pm outbreaks are expected with the noaa anomaly charts, thats normal, but its really nothing to get excited about. At this time of the year is it really better then no outbreaks? Seems like wanting as cold as posdible for the sake of it. I fully get the desire for deep cold and snow, but wanting itt to be a few degrees chillier then what is average is pointless imho.

Hi mushy,

It won't be long before we are on the same side again. In the meantime, I'm a bit happier with the trend towards a colder and very unsettled outlook with a chance of snow. There is always a possibility with a nw/se jet that something substantially colder may develop. :-)

Edited February 15, 2015 by Frosty.

[Daniel*]

Hold on Interesting development on the ECMWF at 144hr.

[Mucka]

Coolest set of GFS ensembles for some time tonight but still zonal.

 

 

[knocker]

The GFS run this morning is the familiar story of depressions running west to east from N. America and periodically bringing wet and windy weather to the UK, the severity of which increases with latitude. The caveat is that later in the run the jet moves further south thus negating the last observation. But this is way down the line and subject to change although the overall trend is reasonable.

 

In the near future the end of the week looks like being quite wet for a time with any snow being confined to northern Scotland.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited February 16, 2015 by knocker

[IDO]

The sine wave signature from the GEFS mean sums up the upcoming pattern:  

 

A period from Thursday of Atlantic dominated weather with possible low pressure systems along with numerous fronts pushing east as we alternate between TM and PM air. The GFS op had EIGHT spells of rain, maybe one of those was a snow event for the north (well into FI), but the rest were rain with wintry showers following as the cold front digs south/east. The GEFS mean is zonal from D3 to D15:

 

 

The trend for the PV to settle around NE Canada/Greenland is very strong so any blocking to the north will be difficult in the next two weeks:

 

D12 mean:   D14 mean: 

 

ECM and GEM offering little variety to that synoptic in the next 10 days: 

 

 

 

So unsettled looks banked from Thursday with added to the mix storm potential, possibly the initial bout late Friday. Very Autumnal and although potential for a wintry mix for Northern areas and maybe snow to hills and mountains, mainly cold rain for the south.

[mushymanrob]

no surprises this morning, the deep scandinavian trough has been dropped by the gfs and now fall into line with the type of pattern the noaa anomaly charts show.

 

 

a pretty normal westerly/north of westerly flow (i hesitate to say northwesterly as it doesnt look to me like a clear northwesterly) with a mixture of pm and tm air and depressions lining up to cross the uk. id suggest the current gfs/ecm are correct, an unsettled westerly flow, pretty normal/average.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold front will move slowly East across the UK today followed by a ridge of High pressure and an increasing SW flow across the North and NW tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather seems likely especially in the second week when strong winds and rain may develop for all areas at times. Near average temperatures.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows an undulating flow between an East movement to the North of Scotland and a dipping South of the flow over the UK at times before the main axis of the flow shifts generally further South and strengthens close to Southern Britain from the end of the week and through next week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today continues on it's shift from yesterday to a much more unsettled and windy period of weather developing across all areas of he UK from later this week. Low pressure areas will move East to the North of Scotland with winds from between SW and NW reaching gale force at times and carrying periods of rain and relatively mild conditions alternating with colder and more showery spells when wintry showers falling over the North at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run shows very little difference in the theme of the operational model though right at the end of the run a large mid Atlantic High looks like it could bring a return to quieter and more settled benign weather again in two weeks time following a colder injection of air on a Northerly flow.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show an 85% majority of members going for a West or NW flow across the UK in 15 days time in winds from the West or NW with just 15% having High pressure closer to the South of the UK to restrict the worst of the Atlantic winds and rain to the North of the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows very changeable conditions developing later this week and through the weekend with spells of rain on strong Westerly winds and troughs crossing East and each followed by sunshine and showers, wintry in the North. The pattern looks like continuing well beyond the Day 6 frame.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show todays fronts clearing the East coast by dawn tomorrow with a strong ridge developing over the South and a stronger SW flow coupled with a warm front advancing NE over the North. Later in the week cold fronts again cross the UK from the West followed by more unsettled weather by the weekend as a further Low and troughs cross East over the UK.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM also shows a very changeable and later windy spell of weather setting up across the UK as the current weak and changeable pattern strengthens into something more aggressive later with gales and heavy rain at times almost anywhere with brief colder and showery interludes with some snow on Northern hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows pressure falling more substantially over the UK by the end of the run as Low pressure digs down over the UK more coherently. In the meantime changeable weather with a mix of some rain from troughs and drier periods in between take us through this week with gradually increasing winds from Wednesday and temperatures ranging from just above to maybe below average later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM  ECM is broadly similar in type to all the above in as much as it is going to become windy over the weekend and more especially next week. There will continue to be a mix of rain and showers at times as successive troughs run East over the UK in the strong flow later. The model does show High pressure not a million miles to the South though and this could limit the progression of colder polar maritime interludes and allow troughs to become strung up across the South with more sustained spells of rain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning is more indicative of a deeper unsettled period across the UK than the operational shows even for the South in a strong Westerly flow around Low pressure close to the North and a strong Westerly flow carrying fast moving troughs West to East in the flow in temperatures close to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models all agree on a shift towards a deeper unsettled period with strong winds and rain or showers in a pattern of Low to the North and High well to the South and SW of the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 96.9 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM just about leads the field at 89.5 pts over UKMO at 88.7 pts and GFS at 86.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 62.1 pts over GFS's 60.9 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.1 pts over GFS at 42.5.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The quiet spell of weather with just the occasional trough crossing East in a weak Westerly looks like becoming much more pronounced as we move through the latter stages of this week and the remainder of the period as our seemingly permanent Winter feature of High close to SW Britain looks like giving ground and slipping South in response to a strengthening Jet flow across the UK. A period of volatile weather with heavy rain at times and strong winds look like affecting all areas as we enter the latter stages of the month with short periods of brighter and colder weather with showers, wintry in the North. In such a strong Westerly flow the North will still see the worst of the weather but unlike of late the South too could get a fair share of heavy rain and strong winds too. Overall it looks like temperatures will average out at near to average made up of some mild wet days and colder showery ones. Looking further out into the far reaches of the output and to the ensembles in general there is overwhelming support for the pattern to continue as we move towards the beginning of March with March looking more likely to come in like a lion rather than a lamb this year. However, there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge between now and then but it looks unlikely that the end of the Meteorological Winter of 2014-15 is going to end up being anything other than the mix of weather that the whole Winter has brought us here in another Winter of snow starvation in the vast percentage of low lying Britain.  

Issued at 08:30 Monday February 16th 2015

[Alexis]

no surprises this morning, the deep scandinavian trough has been dropped by the gfs and now fall into line with the type of pattern the noaa anomaly charts show.

 

610day.03.gif 814day.03.gif

 

a pretty normal westerly/north of westerly flow (i hesitate to say northwesterly as it doesnt look to me like a clear northwesterly) with a mixture of pm and tm air and depressions lining up to cross the uk. id suggest the current gfs/ecm are correct, an unsettled westerly flow, pretty normal/average.

 

Yep, after a few days of high pressure in the south this week, it looks like a return to two weeks of November weather.

[Captain Shortwave]

no surprises this morning, the deep scandinavian trough has been dropped by the gfs and now fall into line with the type of pattern the noaa anomaly charts show.

 

610day.03.gif 814day.03.gif

 

a pretty normal westerly/north of westerly flow (i hesitate to say northwesterly as it doesnt look to me like a clear northwesterly) with a mixture of pm and tm air and depressions lining up to cross the uk. id suggest the current gfs/ecm are correct, an unsettled westerly flow, pretty normal/average.

I think the clear difference this time is that whilst we see lowering heights over Europe, this is a zonal signal as opposed to ridging developing in the Atlantic, hence the trend for unsettled or even very unsettled/stormy conditions to take hold during week 2.

Whilst there are pulses of colder air, I wouldn't want to get too excited on 850s of -6C or lower showing up as these could easily end up a couple of degrees higher and hence result in showers of just rain at low levels, even in the far north of Scotland. Hopefully some places can get some late winter snowfall though.

I does look like winter might close on an unsettled note, strangely I get the feeling that this month may balance out around average in near enough every category with our dry first half of the month being counterbalanced by a wetter second half, along with the CET slowly creeping towards average too after a cold start.