Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[Frosty.]

18z won't win many awards, maybe a few golden raspberries but not much else. There are a few colder incursions but they mainly affect the far north, and it's also the far north and northwest where the most unsettled weather would be. High pressure has a much bigger influence across the southern half of the uk with any fronts much weaker than further north. As for temperatures, they look near average by day but some nights would be cold enough for slight frosts.

[fergieweather]

Still confident of a pattern change last third of the month with much more in the way of northern 

blocking as we go into March. This due to tropical convection and MJO signal although the models

are struggling with this. The strat has ruled the roost this winter with very little in the way of 

northern blocking ( possibly due to very strong - QBO ) but hopefully we will see a change over the 

coming days and weeks.

Hate to keep banging this drum, but MJO currently no use as a global teleconnector due to contamination (convective debris from tropical cyclones = phase can't be reliably deciphered nor predicted). Based on the two primary 3+week models (EC Monthly and GloSea5), no useful signal re outcome can be deciphered beyond circa week 1-2 of March, for now at least. Anything otherwise is vague speculation.

[KTtom]

A real dire outlook if you're after anything eventful,  even those who love a good storm or very mild temperatures will be disappointed the remainder of February's prospects. If last years Feb was one of the most eventful (even for all the wrong reasons ) then this one has to be classed as one of the most benign in history! The ECM chart below says it all, flat as a pancake...   

 

 

.....on another note, seasonal weather forecasting continues to be challenge too far  for us amateurs, despite having access to more and more data I would say apart from the Met and maybe IB (how could I say such a thing?!) are the only forecasts close to what we have experienced this winter, all others sadly very wide of the mark. 

 

Others have said it, but I just wonder if GP would have forecasted this winter correctly?  

[IDO]

ECM this morning continuing to trend towards the GFS with HP in charge from D3 to D9 for the south now:

 

 

 

Though the GFS op remains the most progressive with the HP and consistently keeps from D3-11:

 

 

The control and mean till around D10. So the GFS looking good for a week of settled weather for most from Tuesday. Temps look like settling around the average for the south. 

 

Into FI , I looked at D14 and we have lost the two interesting members of last night and none are showing any HLB'ing. There are two MLB with a Euro trough but the mean sums it up:

 

 

The clusters at D16 are showing around 45% for a return to the diving NW to SE Euro trough with a split then between zonal and HP. The trend has been for the repeated Winter pattern and one to watch to see if that continues to develop. However it was on the wrong side of borderline on its last call so another 2-3 weeks on It will likely again be more miss than hit:

 

 

The D16 PV looking at the NH profile is awful for the UK for northern blocking: 

 

As others have said a limp end to another below average winter (for snow and cold) for the south. March may bring some cold but 9 out of 10 times that will amount to little for many regions.

Edited February 14, 2015 by IDO

[bluearmy]

'However it was on the wrong side of borderline on its last call so another 2-3 weeks on It will likely again be more miss than hit'

IDO, what do you mean by this?

[IDO]

'However it was on the wrong side of borderline on its last call so another 2-3 weeks on It will likely again be more miss than hit'

IDO, what do you mean by this?

Although the Synoptics were good, any snow down my way was the wet stuff and melted within hours. Uppers were modified by the disturbances and the cold flow was never sustained. If we are going to get something decent from this repeated pattern as we enter Spring we need these variables to be more favourable especially from an IMBY perspective.

Though I do agree with you the trend is currently heading towards this pattern and I am sure hills and mountains up north will again get another taste of winter if it verifies.

[bluearmy]

Although the Synoptics were good, any snow down my way was the wet stuff and melted within hours. Uppers were modified by the disturbances and the cold flow was never sustained. If we are going to get something decent from this repeated pattern as we enter Spring we need these variables to be more favourable especially from an IMBY perspective.

Though I do agree with you the trend is currently heading towards this pattern and I am sure hills and mountains up north will again get another taste of winter if it verifies.

Oh I see - got a bit confused by a 'micro' point inside a 'macro' post!

yes it's frustrating to see such great sypnotics let down by a residual upper warm pool nw of scandi. That's really all it was. the initial couple of days would have brought widespread snowfall had that pool not been there. Thereafter, with snowcover, those marginal falls would all have been top ups with the lower cold pool atop the uk much more marked. those are the fine margins we work with on the eastern edge of an ocean. I know my in laws in low lying Cheshire had at least 10 days of snowcover in the garden.

Had we received that countrywide, then I doubt you would be referring to such a poor winter. last year was a poor winter for cold. There were no patterns that we saw which could delver snow to the south. This season we have had three, yet each time (down south) we've come out the wrong side in respect of snowcover. go back through the archives and find similar sypnotics and you may find a very different outcome. You can't judge the winter from a technical perspective re what happened in your garden!

like I say generally fine margins for the south of the uk and a continental fed pattern is always safer. I wonder if spring will be very late this year which could be even more frustrating as we could again come out the wrong side through March as you alluded earlier.

[Frosty.]

Ecm 0z T+240 has potential with 522 dam line pushing south and just look how far into the Atlantic the 510 dam extends, really nice end to the ecm with much colder weather spreading south and east.

[bluearmy]

for those seeking a cold end to feb and entry to march, the latest extended eps offer a drop in consistency with euro low heights failing to gain traction. up until yesterday, i felt this evolution was very much in line with the approach to the last spell. however, suites as just issued were not present last time so i would have to say that despite there remaining a  likelihood that we will see the trough dropping into nw europe towards the end of the month, there is a lack of support for it being sustained.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A filling depression over the English Channel will lose it's identity today followed by a slack area of pressure developing across the UK for the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and fine weather across the South but more unsettled at times in the North, spreading South too at times albeit briefly. Temperatures will be near or above average generally.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow continuing to be one of West to East across the Atlantic and crossing to the North of the UK. However, the Southern portion of this main arm pulls South at times over the UK as weak troughs cross the UK on several occasions through the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows High pressure well in control of the UK weather through it's run this morning. No High sticks around for long and positioning of it is fluid but they generally are biased to be close to Southern Britain with the Jet Stream flowing around the Northern flank and carrying a lot of benign weather across the UK with dry weather in sometimes large amounts of cloud and temperatures ranging from near normal to above at times. A few troughs not dissimilar to the one this Monday do break through the High pressure at times delivering a little rain before dry weather quickly returns thereafter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is very similar in all respects with only minor adjustments to the operational of where the High pressure sits day to day with the overall theme identical to that of the operational with any rainfall slight and more likely over the far North.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a more or less 50% spread between High pressure lying to the South of the UK with a strong Westerly flow with rain at times or an equal chance of High pressure lying close to or over SW Britain with NW or variable winds, somewhat cooler but dry conditions for many .

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a mild and strong SW flow towards the middle of next week before a weak front brings a weakening band of rain East or SE soon after nidweek followed by more dry and quiet conditions as High pressure rebuilds from the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show this morning's Low pressure and fronts dissolving away SE with a new front staggering East in the beginning of the new week followed by High pressure close to Southern England setting up a long fetch SW mild airflow across the UK for a time later next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM shows a fairly lengthy period when High pressure lies close to the South with the same mild SW flow midweek that other models show once Monday's trough has cleared through. Then later High ressure bases further to the SW of the UK with a dig of colder and more unstable West or NW winds with rain and showers for all, wintry on Northern hills by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a period of mild SW winds too next week, ended by a decaying cold front moving east towards the end of the week returning less mild and breezy weather briefly before the mild West to SW winds return later with some rain in the NW..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM is much more settled looking than yesterday morning's run with a broad expanse of westerly or SW winds across the Atlantic throughout. With High pressure never far away from Southern England a lot of dry, benign weather is shown with just interruptions from weak fronts decaying SE through the UK at times. Temperatures will range from very mild levels in tropical maritime air to near average in any shift towards polar maritime air in the North especially.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning has flattened the risk of any European troughing at the end of it's run to put the UK under more of a straight Westerly rather than NW'ly and with Low pressure close to the North and High well to the SW the most common weather type shown must being bands of rain and showers crossing West to East over the UK at times in relatively mild conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The long term trend has increased today towards an High pressure orientated period again with a strong trend towards a lot of dry and quiet weather for the UK in general but with rain at times on a stronger Westerly flow at times over the North.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM just about leads the field at 89.9 pts over UKMO at 89.0 pts and GFS at 86.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 63.6 pts over GFS's 62.4 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.9 pts over GFS at 43.0.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The current hiatus in the generally High pressure pattern of late is just that as after another troughs staggers East across the UK through Monday before pressure builds strongly close to Southern England next week. With the Jet flow riding strongly East to the North of the UK by then a very mild and strong SW flow blows over the UK for a time with Eastern parts of Scotland in particular likely to see some very mild temperatures for a time. Thereafter, apart from a series of weak fronts crossing down over the UK from the West and NW at times the weather stays largely dry and quiet with just occasional bands of light rain accompanying those fronts before fine and settled weather returns under renewed High pressure. Temperatures will fluctuate at times between levels close to average to rather mild at times dependant on the day to day positioning of High pressure affecting the prevailing winds blowing across the UK. However, all models suggest that Westerly will be the prevailing wind direction for most of the time and this means that South and East will always offer the most shelter while the NW could be damp and windy at times. Longer term still and there is still some suggestion that more unsettled weather will creep further down across the UK with more extensive bands of rain and showers but there is still little evidence of any sting in the tail to end this rather non-descript Winter for many with the SW away from the highest moors seeing little lying snow for the second year in succession.  

Issued at 08:30 Saturday February 14th 2015

[Captain Shortwave]

At least from the ECM ens this morning my call would be more of the Azores high being steamrollered flat rather than being pulled out to our south west to allow a more sustained north to north westerly flow to develop.

So week 2 I believe will yield some more widespread unsettled conditions as the jet sinks southwards on a generally west to east axis. This meaning increasing amounts of rain and wind for all, especially the north and west of the UK. Temperatures look near normal with some days reaching double figures mixed with cooler days in the mid-single figure range.

 

GFS anomalies

day 7

Day 10

The GFS looks more settled for longer, at day 10 the hint of a north westerly flow but again there are higher than normal heights over central/southern Europe which could inhibit any push south and east of cold air from the Arctic.

 

Still a long way to go yet, and there is still signs we could develop a colder pattern in a week or so time, this backed up by some of the monthly models at least (JMA and CFS).

Edited February 14, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[johnholmes]

The EC-GFS output this morning does not carry on its idea of a colder north of west flow, see below, changes in emphasis all the time so best to ignore anomaly charts until we get 3 consecutive days with all 3 showing the same pattern in my view.

Enjoy the synoptic and ensemble outputs for now!

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

It could also be pretty unsettled or chageable if you prefer that word looking at the strength of the 500mb flow over the Atlantic on all 3, one of the ideas all 3 do agree on.

Edited February 14, 2015 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

Ecm 0z ensemble mean is showing an increasing bias towards colder westerly winds which would eventually veer northwesterly beyond the next 7-10 days or so with -5 T850 hPa spreading SE and a good chance of ppn turning wintry with snow on hills, at least across the north.

Edited February 14, 2015 by Frosty.

[cyclonic happiness]

Ecm 0z ensemble mean is showing an increasing bias towards colder westerly winds which would eventually veer northwesterly beyond the next 7-10 days or so with -5 T850 hPa spreading SE and a good chance of ppn turning wintry with snow on hills, at least across the north.

That is the quote that describes the entire winter this year :-D

[Frosty.]

That is the quote that describes the entire winter this year :-D

True, it's not been a bad winter in the north and especially on hills, the ecm 0z mean and op show a gradual veering of the airflow as time goes on so that between spells of milder, wet and windy weather, there would be colder showery spells, cold enough for snow at times. It's just normal UK winter weather really beyond the next week or so. However, before that it looks fairly settled across the southern half of the UK for most of next week, more unsettled cyclonic further NW.

[Frosty.]

6z shows a risk of back edge wet snow on northern hills during Monday and wintry showers piling into the far NW.

[winterof79]

It's a shame those who have left the building due to "winter being over".They will obviously have no interest in the growing possibility of the trough dropping nearby as we move through the back end of February.GFS having a closer look at that scenario this am.

Edited February 14, 2015 by winterof79

[johnholmes]

It's a shame those who have left the building due to "winter being over".They will obviously have no interest in the growing possibility of the trough dropping nearby as we move through the back end of February.GFS having a closer look at that scenario this am.

 

Do not worry, as soon as anything realistic, in their view appears, they will be back, trust me after 11 years on here.

[IDO]

It's a shame those who have left the building due to "winter being over".They will obviously have no interest in the growing possibility of the trough dropping nearby as we move through the back end of February.GFS having a closer look at that scenario this am.

 

Yes I suspect March and April will be colder than average with plenty of Northern Blocking   Just waiting for the signs in the models. Does not really get me excited, cold in early Spring, but I can see why places like Huddersfield may see wintry weather, though again will the UK benefit from any blocking?

 

The GFS 06z does not get interesting till D14 and to be honest it would be a surprise if we get anything cold before then as there looks to be reasonable agreement for at least the next 10 days. At the end of FI a sinking ridge:

 

 

Temp wise for the next 15 days:

 

  WSI_EuroEnergy

Mostly normal to above normal temperatures across Europe to the end of February. http://t.co/SGdFFzbaeH

14/02/2015 10:55

 

Unfortunately at the moment you cannot make a silk purse out of a sow's ear, and this winter these holding patterns have eaten away time and we have another incoming.

[nick sussex]

I think the problem at the moment is the constant delays to the troughing getting further south.

 

Any slight interest remains marooned at day ten onwards and by slight that's even overselling it! The GFS 06hrs run in a nutshell sums up the winter, any ridging toppled as the Canadian PV chunk reasserts its authority.

 

The set up right at the end is probably the best that could be possible given the lack of any HLB and the relentless nature of that PV.

 

At this point I'm beginning to wonder whether theres more chance of an alien landing than any HLB that might favour western Europe!

[polar vortex]

Hate to keep banging this drum, but MJO currently no use as a global teleconnector due to contamination (convective debris from tropical cyclones = phase can't be reliably deciphered nor predicted). Based on the two primary 3+week models (EC Monthly and GloSea5), no useful signal re outcome can be deciphered beyond circa week 1-2 of March, for now at least. Anything otherwise is vague speculation.

Ridge building on the pacific side is more in line with tropical convection around the date line and the weakish phase 8 MJO. Agree with Cohen's

lastest thoughts of a trop split of vortex to what was seen in the strat early January. Also I do not buy into what NOAA and the met and its 

forecasting tools say as gospel.

Cold before February is out and then on into March is my bet. The strat has been a thorn in the backside.

Edited February 14, 2015 by polar vortex

[legritter]

Do not worry, as soon as anything realistic, in their view appears, they will be back, trust me after 11 years on here.

Still plenty of time for some interesting synoptics as its only Valentines day ,but i will put my hands up and say i havent been posting much but have been lurking .Todays ecm ok in final frame with some cold air 850mb temp encroaching from far north atlantic ,so future runs I will be watching with some interest half expecting some Deep lows coming our way and i think a fair possibility of a deep scandy trough to set up probably our best chance looking at current modelling .Our turn Will come but we may have to wait ,perhaps a nice long warm summer to cheer us all up ,i am in no way saying winter is over so the Hunt is still on ,Great Forum catch you all up later ,  

[Frosty.]

6z finally shows something to smile about with a wintry start to spring!

[fergieweather]

Ridge building on the pacific side is more in line with tropical convection around the date line and the weakish phase 8 MJO. Agree with Cohen's

lastest thoughts of a trop split of vortex to what was seen in the strat early January. Also I do not buy into what NOAA and the met and its 

forecasting tools say as gospel.

Cold before February is out and then on into March is my bet. The strat has been a thorn in the backside.

Hi - There's certainly every likelihood of colder Pm/rPm phases from next weekend onwards, with further cold outbreaks/trough extensions in the US leading to upstream amplification and resultant downward trend for UK temperatures. The point I was making is that the weak MJO signal is presently muddled and thus of little predictive value. The conflicting EC v GS5 trends onwards into mid-March don't help resolve the medium range conundrum post-D15 and hence it remains an imponderable at least for now.

[winterof79]

Yes I suspect March and April will be colder than average with plenty of Northern Blocking Just waiting for the signs in the models. Does not really get me excited, cold in early Spring, but I can see why places like Huddersfield may see wintry weather, though again will the UK benefit from any blocking?

The GFS 06z does not get interesting till D14 and to be honest it would be a surprise if we get anything cold before then as there looks to be reasonable agreement for at least the next 10 days. At the end of FI a sinking ridge:

gfsnh-0-384 (1).png

Temp wise for the next 15 days:

WSI_EuroEnergy

Mostly normal to above normal temperatures across Europe to the end of February. http://t.co/SGdFFzbaeH14/02/2015 10:55

Unfortunately at the moment you cannot make a silk purse out of a sow's ear, and this winter these holding patterns have eaten away time and we have another incoming.

Yes IDO,we do get a fair rub of the green.The output has not been particularly inspiring this season,so we will have to take what we can from what's left.I will continue to observe the output every 24z which I think a few more on here would have been better doing.When we get X model agreement on anything colder then is the time to follow the runs a little more enthusiastically.

The trend after more benign weather is for a return to conditions from a more northerly/north westerly quadrant,which does bear fruit for some.

Edited February 14, 2015 by winterof79