Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[IDO]

Models firming up on a wet tuesday now, afterwards is very uncertain.

 

Not too bad for the south: 

 

The GFS op and mean are settled HP dominated throughout, right through to D16. Not expecting anything too warm, maybe the odd day but dry is the call so I am not sure it's that uncertain. The ECM looks great for the south. This morning's rainfall totals for the next 10 days suggests London 8mm on the 0z run:

 

 

The MJO is going amplified on the CFS and GFS with both heading towards phase 7:

 

 

 

So as I have said this morning confidence later in week 2 is quite high for pressure to be to the east and the UK within the boundaries of higher pressure. The surface conditions will depend on where the core heights settle so it could still be warm or cooler. No problem either way, at least we are going for an extended dry period.

Edited March 4, 2015 by IDO

[Frosty.]

I think it's logical that we are gradually going to be heading into a much more benign and anticyclonic spell, certainly the GEFS 12z mean thinks it's very logical indeed with a progressively settled outlook and hopefully plenty of sunshine. :-)

[Nouska]

Not too bad for the south: graphe6_1000_306_141___Londres (20).gif

 

The GFS op and mean are settled HP dominated throughout, right through to D16. Not expecting anything too warm, maybe the odd day but dry is the call so I am not sure it's that uncertain. The ECM looks great for the south. This morning's rainfall totals for the next 10 days suggests London 8mm on the 0z run:

 

ensemble-rrrcum-london.gif

 

The MJO is going amplified on the CFS and GFS with both heading towards phase 7:

 

ensplume_full (2).gif  realtimemjo.png MarchPhase7gt1500mb.gif

 

So as I have said this morning confidence later in week 2 is quite high for pressure to be to the east and the UK within the boundaries of higher pressure. The surface conditions will depend on where the core heights settle so it could still be warm or cooler. No problem either way, at least we are going for an extended dry period.

 

I had a look through the archive for a similarly amplified March -  as ever, no exact replica - March '97 was the closest.

 

From JMA archive.  http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/mjo/monitor.html

 

CET was 8.4C for that month with a mega Nino beginning and very mild February preceding it. Doubt we will see as high this month but if forecasts verify with the southerly draw - might be pushing close.

[ANYWEATHER]

Quite startling to see models making a huge backtrack with the original high oriented outlook to now a more unsettled and rather messy outlook. Hats off to Ecm  yesterday as its been a leader in this change and Gfs  has followed.....

Edited March 4, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[ANYWEATHER]

Models firming up on a wet tuesday now, afterwards is very uncertain.

Well fair play to you for confidence , but given the model divergence looking at Tuesday for a wet day is like saying it will be Snowing in Birmingham City Center on December 21st!  A more unsettled outlook yes, but the buts and whats and whens and hows and whys remain uncertain.....Oh yes and please tell me why you have big bold writing ,when most of us write in lower case! it feels like you are shouting!

Edited March 4, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[mushymanrob]

Quite startling to see models making a huge backtrack with the original high oriented outlook to now a more unsettled and rather messy outlook. Hats off to Ecm  yesterday as its been a leader in this change and Gfs  has followed.....

I wouldnt be so sure, weve seen this recently with the scandinavian high and easterlies suggestion that the gfs dallied with before dropping it. Whilst the outlook might not have the mlb the ecm was championing yesterday, the gfs is overall closer the the anoms which still suggest pressure will be more high influenced then low, especially in the south.

But.... Even if the ecm is right, its still not a bad picture for early spring.

[johnholmes]

As you might expect these are the anomaly charts using the latest NOO 6-10 and 8-14, make of them what you will, deep cold no, Atlantic dominated, well, yes perhaps but more likely no, other than for the NW of the UK. Anyway see what the actual 500mb charts show in 6-10 days time, I would wager the anomalies against any of the synoptic outputs. That is unless they are consistent and then probably only if they show a similar upper air pattern to the anomaly charts. Some doubt as the EC-GFS versions are not in agreement again but usually the NOAA version is on average nearer the actual than either EC-GFS. Not always though, remember the cold spell just post Xmas? That was signalled by them before NOAA.

links to both sets of charts

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[Frosty.]

Quite startling to see models making a huge backtrack with the original high oriented outlook to now a more unsettled and rather messy outlook

There has not been a huge backtrack, it's just a slight delay to the generally settled mild outlook. I find your post very misleading because the Gfs 12z trends settled, as does the mean, as does the ecm mean and op..and the met office outlook post the middle of next week is going for predominantly settled. Edited March 4, 2015 by Frosty.

[Milhouse]

Quite startling to see models making a huge backtrack with the original high oriented outlook to now a more unsettled and rather messy outlook. Hats off to Ecm  yesterday as its been a leader in this change and Gfs  has followed.....

 

The huge backtrack has already occurred when the ECM removed its cold easterly for this weekend and instead we are seeing temperatures at the other end of the scale. With mean charts like this it indicates a mild 7-10 days to come and a fair bit of dry weather around. High pressure directly over us at this time of year can lead to supressed temps due to mist, fog and low cloud so we will avoid that.

 

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean continues to trend towards a more settled outlook, as does the Gefs 12z mean, the charts for those I posted a little earlier.

[Eugene]

Well fair play to you for confidence , but given the model divergence looking at Tuesday for a wet day is like saying it will be Snowing in Birmingham City Center on December 21st!  A more unsettled outlook yes, but the buts and whats and whens and hows and whys remain uncertain.....Oh yes and please tell me why you have big bold writing ,when most of us write in lower case! it feels like you are shouting!

 

 

Yes the potential is there for some heavy rain next tuesday, sorry you can't see that but i can, also sorry for the caps, i posted that on my Xbox One and was having problems, my caps could have been edited instead of you pointing it out, it was no big deal.

[Polar Maritime]

This mornings GFS/ECMWF shows an Atlantic influence pushing in from the West from around the 10/11th.  Before High Pressure builds strongly over the UK towards week 2.

 

Edited March 5, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[IDO]

Quite startling to see models making a huge backtrack with the original high oriented outlook to now a more unsettled and rather messy outlook. Hats off to Ecm  yesterday as its been a leader in this change and Gfs  has followed.....

 

Not that startling. With the GFS op proving itself unfit for purpose since its upgrade, with a bias after D6 of blowing up highs, we can never bank those lovely GFS op UK highs till we have good agreement. This situation was always a case where the jet sits and the models, as they tend to do, move it south as they get to the more reliable. GFS is further south this morning and although out of the rain the south should still be seeing some mild temps at times, it is not as settled as previous runs. Though, as the GEFs and last night ECM ensembles suggest, hardly a washout for the south:

 

 

From mid-week 2 the signs from the mean are promising still for sustained heights in our locale:

 

  

 

The hi-res models picking up some very mild temps in places in the east and south for Friday and Saturday:

 

 

 

The GFS still keen on 14c for the south on Sunday as well and with March CET already +0.6c, the milder than average months continue into 2015 following on from a very mild 2014 CET. The proviso is the further NW into the UK the cooler and wetter, at times, the next 7-8 days will be.

Edited March 5, 2015 by IDO

[coldcomfort]

Quite startling to see models making a huge backtrack with the original high oriented outlook to now a more unsettled and rather messy outlook. Hats off to Ecm  yesterday as its been a leader in this change and Gfs  has followed.....

From my memory AW it was the ECM that originally and quite ridiculously blew up heights in the first place, something I alluded to in the Moans and Banter thread at the time. Where you draw the chronological line in the sand is really what dictates which model is playing catch up, but in my opinion looking back across the last week or so GFS has been far more on the money regarding the upcoming spell, having never really got sucked into some of the cold E'erly eye candy occasionally offered up by the ECM.

Edited March 5, 2015 by coldcomfort

[Frosty.]

The GFS 00z op shows the very mild air from the Azores arriving shortly, especially mild on Saturday generally, Sunday for the SE and next Tuesday across southern uk when a few spots could reach 18 Celsius. High pressure is already building towards the south but during Sunday, a band of rain will be sliding SE. Looking at next week, fair to say it looks changeable and mild / v mild / rather warm but cooler the further NW you are, then we all have a cooler blip before High Pressure takes control and it turns very mild again. Finally, following a winter full of disappointment and frustration, I'm looking forward to spring warmth.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will move away SE today followed by a mild and in the NW strong SW flow with a trough of Low pressure slow moving across the NW

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and reasonably mild weather with some sunshine in the South and East but occasional rain possible at times especially over the North.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow continuing to blow strongly over the Atlantic but turning NE across the far NW of the UK before the axis moves slowly South across the UK later. Then later still it shifts well to the NW as High pressure forms over the UK.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows changeable conditions next week between High pressure to the South and Low to the far North and NW with a West or SW flow over the UK delivering occasional spells of rain and wind across the UK, always heaviest in the North. Late in the run High pressure develops across the UK before migrating further North allowing a spell of fine Spring weather with temperatures slowly falling off at the end of the run as winds become Easterly with colder air waiting in the wings to the East.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run follows a similar route to the operational in the short to mid term with changeable conditions in a Westerly flow but fails to bring High pressure into play in the longer term maintaining a changeable Westerly flow of weather with wind and rain at times, most prolific towards the North. Temperatures look like holding close to average in both runs with some milder than average days in the South and below average ones in the North as polar maritime air crosses at times.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a lot of  range in the long term this morning with the bias slightly held in favour of High pressure near the Azores and Low pressure to the North with Westerly winds over the UK with rain at times for many. The other options are based around the position of High pressure close to the UK either to the NE, East or West of the UK with much drier and settled conditions as a result.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows slightly changeable conditions next week as High pressure is tantalisingly close to the South of the UK but insufficiently so to prevent fronts to cross the UK from the West on occasion bringing some rain at times chiefly to the North and temperatures generally well up to average for early March.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a broad and strong mild SW flow from the Atlantic over the next few days with a trough close to the NW. This persists for some time before a cold front crosses SE on Sunday and a more vigorous Low and troughs approach the West by early next week.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today also shows changeable conditions next week though High pressure never strays far away from the South of the UK with any rain reaching these parts lighter and patchier than that further North. Temperatures would be held close to average overall but rather mild in the South at times and somewhat chillier at times in the North behind cold fronts.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning holds High pressure just to the South of the UK through next week, far enough South to bring a fresh to strong SW airflow across all areas at times and with troughs embedded in the flow some rain at times for all, heaviest in the North but some dry and brighter periods too.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning shows changeable conditions too next week, especially over Northern areas as troughs periodically cross East bringing some rain for a time. Some of this could reach the South at times but amounts will be small and the underlying theme here would be for dry if rather cloudy skies in average temperatures close to High pressure to the South. Late in the run a strong European High is shown extending a ridge West to Southern Britain with the SW flow restricted to the far NW at that stage and dry, fine weather prevailing for many as a result.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart continues it's slow trend to push the axis of High pressure once shown over the UK and Scandinavia more and more to the SE and bringing the threat of Atlantic SW winds across the UK after the next week and towards the 10 day mark.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The slightly less anticyclonic synopses that was introduced between the models yesterday is generally maintained this morning with all areas at risk of occasional rain from weakening rain bearing fronts. 

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.1 pts and GFS at 96.4. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.3 pts over UKMO at 88.3 pts and GFS at 87.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.0 pts over GFS's 60.2 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 50.5 pts over GFS at 42.5. 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS Yesterdays trend towards slightly less High pressure dominated weather next week is at least part maintained between the models this morning as all are now showing High pressure squeezed further South than originally thought allowing more ingress across the UK of Atlantic winds and occasional troughs moving across from the West. With High pressure never far away to the South there looks to be little significant rainfall down here from such troughs with fine weather quickly returning after each weakening troughs passage. Things could be somewhat wetter at times to the NW though even here some drier spells could prevail at times. Temperatures look like being fairly respectable especially again over the South while polar maritime air could affect the North at times making it feel chilly here, Then we have to look further ahead and see what happens after next week with regard to the extension of High pressure influence or that of the Atlantic Westerlies and to be honest the jury is still out on that one with some Ensemble data suggesting that High pressure may migrate to Europe with the theme of somewhat colder air becoming invasive towards the UK from Europe or that the status-quo of High to the South and Low to the North is maintained with a mild Westerly themed outlook to persist. Which is right is anyone's guess at the moment but what is more certain is that no particularly aggressive weather is expected through the period with most days seeing us chasing areas of cloud and patchy rainfall or sunshine rather than anything more dramatic and on balance most areas will end up rather drier than average rather than wetter with temperatures holding average levels overall too.   

 

Issued at 09:00 Thursday March 5th 2015

[Day 10]

Morning guys,

 

Well I see the models are still on drugs and trying to give us a late late Winter finish in FI. God you have to laugh, they have been desperately trying all Winter to give us all what we want in here... 10/10 for trying 1/10 for reality!

 

 

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[KyleHenry]

The GFS 00z op shows the very mild air from the Azores arriving shortly, especially mild on Saturday generally, Sunday for the SE and next Tuesday across southern uk when a few spots could reach 18 Celsius. High pressure is already building towards the south but during Sunday, a band of rain will be sliding SE. Looking at next week, fair to say it looks changeable and mild / v mild / rather warm but cooler the further NW you are, then we all have a cooler blip before High Pressure takes control and it turns very mild again. Finally, following a winter full of disappointment and frustration, I'm looking forward to spring warmth.

It's not beyond the realms of possibility to see the High pressure move Northwards as the GFS is showing in the latter stages of output.

Bluearmy has pointed this possibility some days back, Cold air to sweep into Europe and the mild air replaced with a cool Easterly and not at the time of year that it's very wanted.

[mushymanrob]

well done to the ecm who was the first to spot the shortwave now due for tuesday. but it shouldnt pose many problems, its expected track is a rapid sw/ne over out northwest. so some rain, the southeast looks driest.

ecm 00z, gfs 00z, go for pressure rise wednesday onwards but disagree as to its evolution and position.

 

ecm

 

still going for a scandinavian high.... whilst the gfs

 

 

suggests a westerly flow, albeit mild at times, and goes on to build the high over us.

im struggling to find an excuse to dismiss the ecms insistance of an (unwanted) scandinavian high, but it did pick up on the scandi high two years ago, and suggested its development several times before it actually happened. as the anomaly charts arent really in much agreement, confidence is low.

however... as things stand, theres nothing to worry about, there might be not much  early warmth (after the weekend), but nothing overly cold - even if we get the ecm's high (sunny days, frosty nights)

[Summer Sun]

A look through the GFS ens shows the south never loses the high from today till d16 whilst some rain is can't be ruled out for the south any that does make it down south is likely to be very patchy and light whilst the north west of Scotland looks prone to some heavy rain at time

 

Edited March 5, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Polar Maritime]

A shiny new thread coming up, Please hold off posting for a moment. 

 

New thread here... https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82656-model-output-discussion-5th-march-onwards-6z/?p=3178488

Edited March 5, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[johnholmes]

I find the statistics on how the models are performing in the northern hemisphere over various days out to 10 days, see below really interesting. Why? Well they do seem to highlight what posters perceive and what the statistics actually are. I know they are for the whole northern hemisphere but it does seem odd that ECMWF often gets slated when the statistics show otherwise.

 

Has anyone got any views on why this is I wonder? 

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.1 pts and GFS at 96.4. At 5 daysECM  continues to lead the field at 90.3 pts over UKMO at 88.3 pts and GFS at 87.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.0 pts over GFS's 60.2 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 50.5 pts over GFS at 42.5. 

 

this is a link to the 5 and 6 day statistics

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html

Edited March 5, 2015 by johnholmes