Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[knocker]

The GEfs anomaly at T240 has ridging just to the SE of the UK, weak trough Scandinavia, HP eastern Europe and usual over Hudson Bay. Thus HP just to the south of the UK with SW airflow with slightly above average temps. The ext at T360 has weak ridge to SW and a fairly slack HP over Atlantic into NW Europe  Similar surface scenario with average or slightly above temps.

[Frosty.]

Some of these Pm blasts look very potent with 522 dam thicknesses, I've taken a snapshot at T+168 on tonight's Ecm 12z to show what I mean. It's a very unsettled run with alternating wet then wintry spells for at least the next 10 days.

Edited February 23, 2015 by Frosty.

[Winter Cold]

Yes, still some points of interest on the ECM tonight for coldies. The first few days of March have been showing something cold for a couple of days now, and tonight is no exception:

 

 

Then another PM shot looks to be heading in at the end of the run.

 

 

The GFS has been playing around with scandi height rises today, I think its appeared on 3 of the 4 runs. Based on its performance this past week (terrible) ill not get too excited just yet, but if it keeps playing around with this, and then the ECM starts showing it in a few days time when it comes in range then i may sit up and take more notice!

 

Just MAYBE we'll have one more chance this winter to get some snow to the starved before its too late......

 

[knocker]

The ECM anomaly is not hugely different to the GEFS just a tad less Scandinavian troughing and it continues in this vein with slightly above average temps. I feel a song by Lou Rawls coming on.........................

Chart weatherbell

Edited February 23, 2015 by knocker

[phil nw.]

Just a heads up if any posts are removed they may well have been moved to the ramps/moans thread here-

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-201415/

 

in order to keep this thread on topic.

 

Thanks all.

[Milhouse]

The ECM mean highlights the potential for a more settled spell developing

 

 

GEFS mean also keen to bring high pressure into play from the south around day 10.

 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes plenty more potent Pm shot's showing on this evenings runs, With Low after Low swinging in down from the N/W on a strong Jet Stream. So remaining cool/cold at times and unsettled, With plenty of Wintry potential continuing at elevation and even down to low levels at times as evaporative cooling comes into play, A very traditional set-up for the UK.. Winter continues to 'March' on.

 

Edited February 23, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[bluearmy]

the axis of the stretched vortex from its canadian home seems likely to adjust further towards eastern siberia over time. that allows the upper ridge to establish in nw europe and potentially scandinavia. we retain the cut off upper trough in se europe/eastern med. this allows for the potential cold pool advection westward that some runs and ens members have hinted at in around two weeks time.  certainly looks to be drying our significantly for march. i note the ecm mean mslp for day 15 to be around 1026mb over the south of the uk.  thats day 15 !!

 

EDIT: Just to add that with that high mean slp, comes mean uppers subzero. not a common combination from an azores extension so whilst springlike by day, likely to be frosty at night. i suspect the surface ridge will be far enough north to bring a 'mean' continental flow.

Edited February 23, 2015 by bluearmy

[phil nw.]

Yes plenty more potent Pm shot's showing on this evenings runs, With Low after Low swinging in down from the N/W on a strong Jet Stream. So remaining cool/cold at times and unsettled, With plenty of Wintry potential continuing at elevation and even down to low levels at times as evaporative cooling comes into play, A very traditional set-up for the UK.. Winter continues to 'March' on.

 

 

Yes PM it still seems we will see the Winter out this week on a rather cold note with still a lot of polar air in the mix.

Still plenty of snowfall for higher elevations especially further north.

The trend to raise pressure from the south is still there but even by day 10 we are fair way short of a widespread settled spell

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015022312/gensnh-21-1-240.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015022312/EDH1-240.GIF?23-0

 

maybe less cold though by week 2 as winds start to turn more south of west.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015022312/graphe3_1000_263_96___.gif

 

temperatures starting to ease up towards more normal figures by then.

[winterof79]

An easterly fetch as we move in to March is on the table

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=300

And not a warm one either one would think

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=5&ech=300

[Eugene]

Yes plenty more potent Pm shot's showing on this evenings runs, With Low after Low swinging in down from the N/W on a strong Jet Stream. So remaining cool/cold at times and unsettled, With plenty of Wintry potential continuing at elevation and even down to low levels at times as evaporative cooling comes into play, A very traditional set-up for the UK.. Winter continues to 'March' on.

 

 

 

Wow, Thats a very cold at the 850 level direct westerly flow on March 3rd, yes Winter looks like Marching well into March.

[knocker]

An easterly fetch as we move in to March is on the table

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=300

And not a warm one either one would think

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=5&ech=300

 

How do you get an easterly fetch out of that? One or two with a light easterly flow which I would hardly call a fetch anyway.

Edited February 23, 2015 by knocker

[Winter Cold]

No comments on the 18z? Yes its in the realms of deep FI, but once again it wants to build northern blocking. On this run it even starts to retrogress the scandi high over to Greenland......

 

[draztik]

Wow, Thats a very cold at the 850 level direct westerly flow on March 3rd, yes Winter looks like Marching well into March.

 

The ext EC ens would suggest otherwise! A consistent signal now from this model, post day 10. High pressure dominating. We shall see.

[draztik]

No comments on the 18z? Yes its in the realms of deep FI, but once again it wants to build northern blocking. On this run it even starts to retrogress the scandi high over to Greenland......

 

 

the GFS post day 10 is like throwing darts. Heck, the GFS post day 4 has been woeful recently.

[Frosty.]

WOW amazing Fi charts on 18z, major easterly fetch and very cold. Teits will be back if this turns into a trend, it's sad that all the big guns have left, hope things change in March. :-)

[Eugene]

Feb looks like ending up the coldest month this winter and maxs were alot lower than 6C for the midlands north early Feb, very enjoyable winter both on and off here, looks like going by GFS 18Z it could continue well into March.

[winterof79]

An easterly fetch as we move in to March is on the table

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=300

And not a warm one either one would think

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=5&ech=300

No change from me this morning.Signal for Scandinavian high on the table.It won't please everyone.

[SMU]

Last chance saloon in the next 10-14 days, the continent will start warming up relative to the height of the sun.

A possible window opening up from the East @ day 12/13- a relatively strong signal from the GFS - 5 operatonals on the bounce with the ECM making a big step that way this morning.

For now nice to look at at least.

[Duane S.]

Not an exact science of course but when GEFS constantly shows the pressure rising in Iceland in far FI at >1005 average (with the OP normally much higher) there is often something in it in terms of HLB possibilities. Too early yet but the first time for quite a while this winter I've seen it.

[bluearmy]

Last chance saloon in the next 10-14 days, the continent will start warming up relative to the height of the sun.

A possible window opening up from the East @ day 12/13- a relatively strong signal from the GFS - 5 operatonals on the bounce with the ECM making a big step that way this morning.

For now nice to look at at least.

thought you would have popped up yesterday Steve! these NWP teases look likely to continue, given the extended eps. as you say, last chance saloon and the only set up that can deliver proper lowland snow in march for most of the southern uk is a continental feed.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes some interesting synoptic's showing again this morning out into the run.

 

[IDO]

FWIW the CFS have flipped to colder, more blocked runs of late, for March. The last four runs:

 

 

Early days yet but if we are going to get some real cold to end the winter then the models are going in the right direction as it is clear a N/W'ly has so far this season been rather tame and I don't expect it to produce more wintriness as we head to March.

 

The GFS op and control at D11 suggesting possibilities: 

 

Not saying this will lead to cold or snow but the signal for a more settled period continues to look possible. Looking at the London ensembles there are no real cold runs yet but a cluster of warmer members are showing:

 

 

That is in FI land and the majority of the runs are closer to the mean, so are below average.

 

Thursday still looks like the wettest day of the week with a front moving SE during the day and clearing southern England by around 5-6pm (WRF, but GFS 7pm). Looks like 3-4 hours of rain and at its most organised as it hits the south. A dry Friday followed by a less organised front Saturday. A LP system for the south on Sunday and another front Monday morning (GFS). That heralds 2-4 days of colder uppers, so snow showers possible for the NW, west, Scotland and hills.

 

The CET, with six days to go is dead on the monthly average, so Feb turning to be very run of the mill and I expect that not to change much though may just go above average.

Edited February 24, 2015 by IDO

[bluearmy]

Lest we forget a frigid wnw flow that brought decent snowccover to parts of nw england late jan ???

That was one of the coldest non polar norwesters I can recall.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ens once again hinting at something more settled developing from the south during next week gradually settling things down for large parts of the UK and fairly pleasant by day in any sunshine and light winds with some frost and fog a risk overnight