Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[Mucka]

The Azores ridge that looked like it may briefly bring something more settled and pleasant for next weekend, especially away from the NW of the UK, is looking less and less influential with recent output.

Looks like any Springlike weather, even brief, will be put on hold but I wouldn't rule out next weekend having some better weather, especially in the South.

 

ECM and UKMO want to continue the disturbed chilly theme into next weekend with only a brief weak transient ridge affecting the UK whereas GFS still wants something a little more effective and prominent though it is slowly moving away from anything settled or mild, even for a couple of days or so.

Edited February 22, 2015 by Mucka

[Frosty.]

What about those looking for a very cold snowy spell?....Early March can deliver that.

Gibby is keeping it real as always, there is a trend towards fine spring weather as we go deeper into March, at least for the south of the UK but not until beyond T+240 hours. As for a very cold snowy spell, well if there was even a sniff of that occurring, this thread would be much busier.

[IDO]

What about those looking for a very cold snowy spell?....Early March can deliver that.

But it is rare indeed and March 2013 was a once in 50 years event so a long way to go for that to be repeated. However statistics aside, why will there be one this March? There is no sign of an SSW, the experts (Dr Cohen & others) suggest no Northern Blocking, and the models currently say no. If we did a post and every time we mentioned what could happen it would be a bit daft! Looks like the best we are going to get, wintry wise is a wet and cool zonal flow and TBH for the SE that is as bad as it could be in March for us.

The GFS op D5-7 looking like a ridge will keep the south dry:

Then from D8-10 again HP moving back in:

Looking at the GEM and although that has backtracked on the Siberian High stretching west it remains very zonal:

D8:

Wish I could trust the GFS but if it right then ECM has made a complete and utter fail, and the verification stats suggest otherwise.

Edited February 22, 2015 by IDO

[Frosty.]

An increasingly anticyclonic pattern becomes established later in low res on this evenings Gfs 12z op run, the south improves first and it becomes much milder in the south with maxima into the low teens Celsius. I think this run would make a good template for what the met office are expecting to occur during March.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z op run is very unsettled, a very undulating pattern with frequent Atlantic lows separated by very transient flat ridges rushing east. The next 10 days or more would bring further bouts of wet and windy weather and Pm outbreaks, the most potent outbreak lasts a couple of days from T+192 hours and looking further ahead, the Atlantic still looks very strong with a continuation of the current pattern until at least early march looking likely.

[Summer Sun]

The GFS ens and ECM Op both hint at a rise in pressure at day 10 especially so for the south, further north it stays more unsettled

 

[Winter Cold]

Well its been snowing today which was nice to watch, and looking at tonights ECM 12z there will be continuing chances for wintryness throughout the next 10 days......if its on the right track. Some nice charts tonight still:

 

Can see why there are METO warnings out for snow showers tomorrow for Yorkshire northwards here

 

 

Friday could see a repeat performance....

 

 

And then a lovely 2-3 day window where snow could fall anywhere early in the new month

 

 

It must be said though that there are large warm sectors spoiling the fun, much like todays. Shame really:

[Frosty.]

Looking further into the GEFS 12z crystal ball, the mean shows a marked improvement across the south from T+240 hours onwards, becoming fine in the south but staying changeable / unsettled further north for a bit longer. In the meantime, another 7-10 days of generally unsettled conditions for all of us and rather cold at times.

Edited February 22, 2015 by Frosty.

[ANYWEATHER]

How many times in the last few weeks have the models punched for high pressure, and what have we got, Todays weather  Both Ecm and Gfs punctuate high pressure to the south of the uk , No more no less.  It looks like a cold Westerly  or NorthWesterly  from both   models . Settled weather now is out of the Equation.....

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows growing signs of high pressure influence for southern areas by T+240 hours, this is probably the best indication yet from the ecm for a gradual change to more springlike benign conditions beyond day 10 from the south.

[bluearmy]

I'm more inclined to have faith in the potential height rise in the 10/15 day period than i was the last time this was progged. first half of march could deliver quite pleasant early spring conditions and the NWP could even keep the coldies interested as little cold pools are occasionally advected northwest on the odd run.

[IDO]

No shock that the GFS op has ditched it's sustained pressure rise for the end of the week and is in line with ECM now. So unsettled till at least D8-9 with a very brief ridge at D5-6:

 

 

The GFS op upgrade has in my opinion made it worse, for example:

 

  RyanMaue
GFS upgrade still looks to suffer from extended "skill dropout" periods while ECMWF is unaffected. http://t.co/wUMDE46IRp
23/02/2015 07:03

 

Pretty unsettled throughout the run (to D16) with just transient ridges rather than the HP domination of previous day's runs. From around D15 pressure does try to move in again from the Azores but that is a long time away. It is pretty run of the mill cool westerly/NW'ly with Scotland and hills still at risk of something wintry but mainly cold rain for the rest. In the drier interludes out of the wind, temps in the south won't be far below average as a whole this next 7 days. Though the further NW you are the colder it will feel but nothing unusual.

 

From D9 the GEFS mean showing a continued trend to build positive heights from the south, right through till D16:

 

D10 D12 mean: 

 

D16 mean: 

 

How that translates to where the higher pressure sits is still debateable, with UK highs and N/S splits the main clusters but with core heights further north as well (small cluster), and also a good zonal cluster. As for temps; the mean 2m London temp is around average from D11-16 with some warmer ones and some cooler members but no major signal for a cold wintry end to this winter.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and strong Westerly flow will blow across the UK today slowly veering NW tomorrow as a depression moves slowly east to the north of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and windy with rain at times and hill snow across the North especially at first. Possibly milder more generally later and maybe drier in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows a strong West to East flow across the Atlantic through this week before it weakens somewhat as it moves back more to the North of the UK later in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a very changeable week ahead with the cold and showery period until Wednesday giving way to a milder interlude midweek with some rain and a return to cold and windy weather with showers to end the week. thereafter the pattern becomes more confused with High pressure gradually taking control of the weather, first to the South and then to the NE which becomes more meaningful as it changes the milder complexion to one of colder weather with winds blowing across from Europe and pressure falling to the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL  The GFS control run is broadly similar throughout it's run today with the same High pressure influence to the South moving over to the East later and suggesting a chance of a chilly ridge from the European High affecting at least parts of the UK at the end of the run.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters this morning look largely supportive of High pressure lying close to the UK with a spread of options ranging from a centre to the SE, SW or across Southern Britain with only Northern areas likely to be seeing rain of any note at that time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning looks distinctly changeable under Westerly or NW winds. There will be spells of rain alternating with showers all week with temperatures fluctuating between mild on Wednesday and rather cold thereafter with showers, wintry in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show changeable conditions across the UK this week with various troughs bringing their own alternating pattern of milder and wetter conditions with colder showery periods in West or NW winds.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM  GEM this morning shows a sustained period of strong Westerly winds with fast moving troughs delivering spells of rain followed by showers, wintry at times. This pattern continues unabated right out to day 10 on this morning's run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also maintains a Westerly flow across the UK through the next week with some milder weather at times but with colder interludes too with showers turning wintry over the hills at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows the same basic pattern as yesterday with High pressure gradually creeping closer to the South with time gradually lessening the impacts of the otherwise persistent Westerly flow across the UK with rain at times and fluctuating temperatures..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart shows a familiar pattern of High to the South and Low to the North in a broad Westerly flow. With less of a cyclonic NW direction to the flow and more of a SW to West then the incidence of tropical maritime air influences across the UK especially the South is likely to be greater than of late.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are still mixed messages from the output today of how much and what impact High pressure has across the UK in Week 2 with a variety of options shown not all for fine weather.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.5 pts followed by UKM at 97.1 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM just continues to lead the field at 89.9 pts over UKMO at 88.1 pts and GFS at 86.1. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 63.2 pts over GFS's 59.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 46.2 pts over GFS at 41.6.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS There is little change in the output this morning than that shown yesterday in that all interest focuses on how much influence building High pressure has if any on the weather across the UK in a week or so. There are many certainties over this week in that changeable and sometimes rather cold weather will prevail with rain and showers at times in fluctuating temperatures as depressions continue to roll East to the North of the UK sending their associated troughs across the UK. We then look to the South and SW to see if High pressure develops close enough to our shores to restrict rain and showers to more Northern areas or not. Those that show this notbaly ECM will bring a slow cessataion of rain and wind from Southern areas later but probably not to the North. GFS takes us on a much closer excursion into High pressure with the clusters showing a variety of positions for this to lie while the operational and Control run takes High pressure to Eastern Europe and throwing a strong ridge back West to at least control part of the UK's weather in a colder continental drift. So all in all it's a pay your money and take your choice sort of option today between maintained unsettled and windy weather with rain and wintry showers, ala GEM and also UKMO as far as it goes to a slow build of High pressure to the South of the UK with more benign conditions and less cold air via ECM. As far as the GFS control and operational go I think I will rather take the route of the clusters in that High pressure will lie close to Southern Britain in 10-14 days rather than any feed from Europe though it is an interesting philosophy and not the first time it has been shown. So still another week of occasionally volatile weather to come and for some like me this morning a surprise snowfall is not out of the question almost anywhere in the chilly polar maritime incursions which look like dominating for a while yet.  

Issued at 08:30 Monday February 23rd 2015

[mushymanrob]

well its looking promising for the first week of march/spring as the signes are growing that the azores high could drift eastwards across our southern latitude.

the last 3 days noaa 8-14 dayers suggest this progression, and thus lend weight to current op's fi suggestion of a higher pressure across our south, and whilst not exactly killing off the atlantic, at least has the tracks of the lows much further north. so less wet, milder, and not as breezy by the end of the next week? ie pretty decent early springlike weather.

 

 

note how the azh drifts eastwards over the 3 days.

[Summer Sun]

Ensembles of GFS and ECM both suggesting a rise in pressure during early March with GFS keeping the high from d10 to d16

 

 

Temperature would probably be around average by day but feeling increasingly pleasant by day in the ever strengthening sunshine though nights could become cold with a risk of frost and fog

[knocker]

This mornings anomalies are showing a certain amount of conformity with ridging over the UK, weak trough Scandinavia and HP further east. In the ext period  at T360 the development of the HP (weak trough removed) with the GEFS placing it further east than the ecm. This would seem to be conducive to a more WSW flow and warmer temps.

 

EDIT

I note the latter sentence is somewhat unclear. This applies if the ecm is correct and not the GEFS.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited February 23, 2015 by knocker

[Weather-history]

Fluky coincidence. GFS 06z has a low that tracks the Channel on night of 2nd/3rd March on the 20th anniversary of a similar low that gave snowfalls across Wales and Midlands.

[STORMWATER]

Fluky coincidence. GFS 06z has a low that tracks the Channel on night of 2nd/3rd March on the 20th anniversary of a similar low that gave snowfalls across Wales and Midlands.

Yes i noticed that, but will it all change on the next run.

[Eugene]

Very unsettled weekend, GFS was hopelessly wrong like i've always said against most in here, IDO i never saw you dismiss it as strongly as i was so it was a shock to you, notice attention has moved alot further ahead now.

[winterof79]

Very unsettled weekend, GFS was hopelessly wrong like i've always said against most in here, IDO i never saw you dismiss it as strongly as i was so it was a shock to you, notice attention has moved alot further ahead now.

Could be a cold high setting up if it shifts eastward.Europe loaded with cold to our east as we enter March.GFS 00z went for blocking high to our east which would be cold.Lets see what the 12s do.Hopefully post charts upon my return.

Edited February 23, 2015 by winterof79

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z mean shows the Azores high beginning to change the weather pattern across southern UK from unsettled to settled, from around 4th March onwards and by the 10th it's well and truly settled across the south but it may take until mid March for scotland to settle down. In the meantime the current very unsettled spell continues with further Pm shots at times, some quite potent.

Edited February 23, 2015 by Frosty.

[Eugene]

Could be a cold high setting up if it shifts eastward.Europe loaded with cold to our east as we enter March.GFS 00z went for blocking high to our east which would be cold.Lets see what the 12s do.Hopefully post charts upon my return.

 

 

Yes hints on GFS 12Z of a cold setup with HP to our NE with atlantic lows undercutting.

[IDO]

Very unsettled weekend, GFS was hopelessly wrong like i've always said against most in here, IDO i never saw you dismiss it as strongly as i was so it was a shock to you, notice attention has moved alot further ahead now.

 

Hi

 

I have been casting aspersions on the GFS op (AKA Parallel) since November so I am not sure where that comes from. Though I did post the ops I never had any faith in them.  Of course I do enjoy looking at them rather than say the GEM:

 

 

I just cannot get excited about wet, cool and windy weather, but if that floats your boat well the next 7 days plus should be up your street.

 

Where as the mean had not been supporting the GFS op's HP domination for the end of the week, it's mean has been running with pressure rising from the south from around D9 for a few runs now. It continues that trend tonight:

 

D9:   D16:

 

A few interesting charts beginning to manifest right at the end of FI so one to watch over the next few days:

 

 

 

So something more blocked may show its face before we can look forward to Spring?

Edited February 23, 2015 by IDO

[Cloud 10]

Looks like March coming in like a lion with a potent PM blast.

 

 

 

Will it go out like a lamb?

[Captain Shortwave]

The models pretty much agree that week 1 will be unsettled or even very unsettled with spells of rain and temperatures a little below normal for the time of year. There could be some pretty high rainfall totals with the risk of snow over the hills and even to lower levels in the north at times. We must also watch out for the potential or a spell of gales or even severe gales as secondary systems track eastwards with the potential for these to deepen rapidly as they engage much colder air pushing down from the north west.

Day 6 charts

GFS

ECM

UKMO

 

At the moment the reasonable cross model agreement continues with the suggestion of heights beginning to build across the south and central parts of Europe, this affecting the UK at times (especially the south).

GFS

ECM

 

The GFS again looks like easing off the Atlantic jet again by too much and hence the ECM solution looks more reasonable.

The GFS ens continue to suggest more settled weather for the south of the UK, the north looks more changeable

 

 

Looks in line with the anomaly charts and the latest outputs from various professional agencies.