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Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

GFS 12z op shows frequent and potent Pm blasts, the first arrives late Sunday in the wake of a wet and very windy spell, this sequence of wet then wintry conditions continues through next week and the following week with only brief fine interludes between, lots of squally showers with hail and thunder, falling as sleet and snow down to modest hills and to sea level in the north. It's a very disturbed pattern and occasionally the snow risk extends to southwest, southern and southeast England but it's fair to say Scotland and especially the hills and mountains could be in for many inches of snow in the next few weeks, accumulations could also affect modest hills in n.Ireland, cumbria, n.wales and as far down as the peak district.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

The anomaly signal for rising MSLP by mid-March is now looking stronger as of this morning's GloSea run (and thus reflected in latest UKMO public forecast wording). GS5 aligns itself steadily closer with the last EC Monthly prognosis, albeit the latter sees (sizeable area of) HP becoming more dominant to SW/W, whereas the UKMO model favours anticyclonic conditions establishing more centrally across the UK. So, moderate confidence now in this sort of benign outcome by mid-month, but very little confidence on associated temperature regime (given divergent signals for the block positioning). Either way, some increasing optimism for a more settled, drier story emerging by mid-March but insufficient confidence, for now, to get too excited by it just yet.

 

Signs of it on GFS in FI and CFS as well. As you say, plenty of uncertainty as to final location. The current HP regimen was well forecasted by your good selves albeit the longevity perhaps wasn't by some of the models. ECM called the breakdown into the weekend and the return of more zonal conditions very well.

 

The form horse would be HP to the SW with a strong Northern jet holding it there but as we've seen in the past week, what looks certain can very rapidly beome uncertain.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Signs of it on GFS in FI and CFS as well. As you say, plenty of uncertainty as to final location. The current HP regimen was well forecasted by your good selves albeit the longevity perhaps wasn't by some of the models. ECM called the breakdown into the weekend and the return of more zonal conditions very well.

 

The form horse would be HP to the SW with a strong Northern jet holding it there but as we've seen in the past week, what looks certain can very rapidly beome uncertain.

 

Hope it's right, HP to South, mid march you'd think would be Springlike, hopefully see signs soon deep FI, this polar maritime is a load of trash and can do one

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I disagree, the last few weeks have been a meteorological snooze fest whereas the models are now showing an action packed outlook with a really wild and wintry mix including thunder. I think folk who like cold weather in the north will be very pleased indeed!

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

I disagree, the last few weeks have been a meteorological snooze fest whereas the models are now showing an action packed outlook with everything thrown at us, maybe even a kitchen sink or two. I think folk who like cold weather in the north will be very pleased indeed!

 

Agree Frosty, if I lived on a hill oop norf, I would be excited/ love PM air, but I live at low level south, and never delivers for me, I either want a true beast or Spring weather now

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Agree Frosty, if I lived on a hill oop norf, I would be excited/ love PM air, but I live at low level south, and never delivers for me, I either want a true beast or Spring weather now

I wouldn't rule out some wintry days in the south during the next few weeks, gfs certainly hasn't. These Pm outbreaks look like being a lot more potent than earlier in the winter due to the colder SST's at this time of year.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

Well lets hope your right Frosty! I cant make my mind up what the next few weeks will deliver. Somtimes i think we will see some more snow flakes before its too late, and then other days I just feel that -4 to -6 850s wont really cut it at this time of year! I suppose its because im still learning how to read charts and how that translates to surface conditions.

 

As has been said, there could be runners and surprises pop up maybe but the pattern is so fast moving, or it looks like its going to be, that any snow will stuggle to settle perhaps?

 

I would even say my location could be on the southern extent of possibly seeing anything?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well lets hope your right Frosty! I cant make my mind up what the next few weeks will deliver. Somtimes i think we will see some more snow flakes before its too late, and then other days I just feel that -4 to -6 850s wont really cut it at this time of year! I suppose its because im still learning how to read charts and how that translates to surface conditions.

 

As has been said, there could be runners and surprises pop up maybe but the pattern is so fast moving, or it looks like its going to be, that any snow will stuggle to settle perhaps?

 

I would even say my location could be on the southern extent of possibly seeing anything?

Potent polar maritime will definitely be good enough for northern uk but for the south it really requires a dash extra, either arctic maritime or continental arctic and looking through the GEFS 12z perturbations. There is plenty of the former but not the other two which is probably why a few of the most popular coldies have left the building some days ago.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Potent polar maritime will definitely be good enough for northern uk but for the south it really requires a dash extra, either arctic maritime or continental arctic and looking through the GEFS 12z perturbations. There is plenty of the former but not the other two which is probably why a few of the most popular coldies have left the building some days ago.

 

unless we get a rare boxing day runner, the PM blast on Xmas day ,I was just far enough north to get decent snow, convective snow though for here is non existant

Edited by Ilovethesnow
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

unless we get a rare boxing day runner, the PM blast on Xmas day ,I was just far enough north to get decent snow, convective snow though for here is non existant

Like I said, there is hope, Pm blasts in late Feb will be more potent than earlier in the winter due to colder sst's. I would not give up, there could be some surprises in the next 14 days.

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

Like I said, there is hope, Pm blasts in late Feb will be more potent than earlier in the winter due to colder sst's. I would not give up, there could be some surprises in the next 14 days.

 

...possibly as early as Friday for e.g. Cotswolds (and Wales more surely, e.g. Brecon Beacons); possibly across to Chilterns....BUT not phasing preferentially with diurnal cycle; depth temps high anyway so settling very temporary; WBFL up at circa 600m and moreover, a rear-edge gig so PPN rates/amounts falling as the colder air tucks-in while the PPN envelope departs E. So, bar a few upland locations, not expected to be anything other than a passing note of interest.

Edited by fergieweather
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

...possibly as early as Friday for e.g. Cotswolds (and Wales more surely, e.g. Brecon Beacons); possibly across to Chilterns....BUT not phasing preferentially with diurnal cycle; depth temps high anyway so settling very temporary; WBFL up at circa 600m and moreover, a rear-edge gig so PPN rates/amounts falling as the colder air tucks-in while the PPN envelope departs E. So, bar a few upland locations, not expected to be anything other than a passing note of interest.

fergie ecm has the precipitation further north into the north midlands! ! 850s look good aswell in a very slack flow!! Looks pretty good for parts of the midlands to see at least some snowfall even if it does not settle!!
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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

fergie ecm has the precipitation further north into the north midlands! ! 850s look good aswell in a very slack flow!! Looks pretty good for parts of the midlands to see at least some snowfall even if it does not settle!!

Yes but northerly bounds of PPN open to doubt. Current (12z) consensus suggests bit further south on track.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

GFS trend setter or outlier?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

Two notable PM shots next week on ECM bring -5c uppers through the UK, that should ensure wintry weather from Manchester northwards with snowfalls on hills and even lower down.

Pressure then builds strongly from the SW matching the MetO view of high pressure into March, and it would be a warm high pressure as well with some very springlike conditions.

So that's my next fortnight sorted then, heavy snow showers and gales next week, sunshine and 15c week after......BANK lol

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION
A trough of Low pressure will move slowly East across England and Wales today followed by another complex wave depression running East over Southern England tomorrow. A showery Westerly flow will veer NW tomorrow over the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and very windy weather seems likely  with strong winds and heavy rain or wintry showers before Southern areas in particular become drier and more settled later

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow undulating North and South in the vicinity of the UK over the next 10 days or so, blowing very strongly at times. late in the period there are sme suggestions it will move back North of the UK as High pressure builds from the South once more.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a lengthy period of very volatile westerly winds across the UK with fast moving bands of rain then showers, sometimes wintry moving through all areas at time. then later in the period High pressure develops from the South with fine and more settled conditions developing later with fine days and some overnight frosts especially over the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is similar in type over the first week to 10 days as the operational but is less excited about the return of more settled conditions later, in fact it shows a largely unchanged period other than less windy weather with rain at times from off the Atlantic still dominant over most areas in temperatures closer to average..

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show the likelihood of much more of a theme towards High pressure being likely in two weeks time with the centre likely to be once more close to Southern or Western Britain rather than anywhere else. Just a 20% group suggest a cold NW flow over the UK with the chance of rain or showers and a few more with Northern areas remaining unsettled in a westerly flow with some rain.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a strong NW then Westerly flow as we move into the first half of the week with wintry showers followed by less cold weather with spells of rain shown towards Day 6 today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a typical period of Westerly winds with occasional troughs swinging East across the UK in sometimes rather cold air with wintry showers.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM shows a generally rather cold and unsettled period with West or NW winds with rain followed by spells of wintry showers especially across the North. Some brief drier interludes will pass West to East through the UK at times too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too show very unsettled weather with periods of rain followed by cold weather with squally wintry showers in NW winds, the pattern repeated several times over the next 6-8 days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM too shows unsettled week to come in strong West or NW winds with rain and wintry showers the shape of things to come. then later in the run High pressure builds North in response to the Jet flow returning North of the UK, gradually settling things down on Week 2 especially across the South where it will feel less cold than the week to come.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart this morning continues to paint a synoptic pattern that has been repeated several times this Winter in our unsettled spells in that there is likely to be an Icelandic Low pressure in 10 days with High pressure near the Azores with Westerly winds and rain at times predominating across the UK in average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are increasingly showing the likelihood of High pressure building back North from the South as we move into the second week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.0. At 5 days ECM just about leads the field at 89.6 pts over UKMO at 88.4 pts and GFS at 86.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 61.3 pts over GFS's 59.7 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.4 pts over GFS at 40.1.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS There is an increasing signal from the longer term models that the expected period of very volatile weather will be in place for about a week before High pressure regains some influence across the UK from the South or SW. Before that happens all models suggest a very windy period with westerly gales and rain at times alternating with more NW winds and showery weather when the weather will be more showery. Wintry showers are expected over all high ground  and it will feel quite unpleasant at times. Then towards the end of next week High pressure from the Azores region looks likely to build back as the Jet stream pushes back North of the UK setting up a probably North/South split in the weather with the North retaining some unsettled weather with rain at times but less cold while the South sees dry conditions with variable cloud, average temperatures and the possibility of patchy night frosts. This is a new trend within the models today but has been hinted at over recent runs by various members and it is a fast growing trend. We must be mindful though that this is 7-10 days ahead and with a lot of weather to get through before any of that becomes apparent a lot can and possibly will change between runs now and then. What is unlikely is that apart from transient snowfalls of a showery nature there is little likelihood of any meaningful wintry disruption over the period with frosts and fog also hard to come by in a widespread fashion over the period. All in all very typical late February/Early March weather.  

Issued at 08:30 Wednesday February 18th 2015

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GFS 00z op shows high pressure building in strongly through early march but looking through the GEFS 00z perturbations, most of them continue with the very unsettled pattern way beyond T+240 hours.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The one thing that could be said of the anomalies of late is they have been somewhat inconsistent which hasn’t lent itself to any reasonable prognosis. Looking at last nights, although they are not totally in agreement they agree on the slackening of the trough over the eastern seaboard and, more importantly the build up of heights to the SW of the UK and to the east.  The build up of heights is retained in the ext. period, although not so much to the near east with the HP moving east,, perhaps confirming the hints from other sources that maybe a period of settled weather in March is becoming more likely and the green shoots of Spring appearing.

Charts courtesy of weatherbell

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

GEFS 00z mean shows a gradual slackening of the very unsettled cold zonal pattern from around T+240 from the south west and this process continues further into FI with a north / south split developing as the south becomes more settled and northern uk stays Atlantic driven but less intense, by the end of the first week in March, high pressure is taking control of most areas.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

i dont buy these charts (though id love then to become reality)

 

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as the anomaly charts suggest a reasonably lengthy spell of a northwesterly upper flow with the azores high and scandinavian trough dominating.

 

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which would support a chart more like this as the general pattern into march.

 

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but these northwesterlies of late, have not really delivered anything much for the vast majority. yes theres been thundersnow, and lying snow accumulations over higher ground. this might occur again for the lucky 5% (lucky if you desire snow). the rest of us will be stuck though in a colder unsettled regime.

i mean, so what if its snowy over northern hills ? i cant see how that could excite everyone else!

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Edited by mushymanrob
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

i dont buy these charts (though id love then to become reality)

 

attachicon.gifRecm2402.gif

 

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as the anomaly charts suggest a reasonably lengthy spell of a northwesterly upper flow with the azores high and scandinavian trough dominating.

 

attachicon.gif814day.03.gif

 

which would support a chart more like this as the general pattern into march.

 

attachicon.gifRtavn1922.gif

 

but these northwesterlies of late, have not really delivered anything much for the vast majority. yes theres been thundersnow, and lying snow accumulations over higher ground. this might occur again for the lucky 5% (lucky if you desire snow). the rest of us will be stuck though in a colder unsettled regime.

i mean, so what if its snowy over northern hills ? i cant see how that could excite everyone else!

 

i have no idea why that last chart is attatched on the end.... ive tried editing it, but to no avail. that last chart should be with the top two, showing fi mild. look it doesnt even appear on the quote...

Edited by mushymanrob
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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

Two notable PM shots next week on ECM bring -5c uppers through the UK, that should ensure wintry weather from Manchester northwards with snowfalls on hills and even lower down.

Pressure then builds strongly from the SW matching the MetO view of high pressure into March, and it would be a warm high pressure as well with some very springlike conditions.

So that's my next fortnight sorted then, heavy snow showers and gales next week, sunshine and 15c week after......BANK lol

Andy

I think Ian F was talking of the 'POSSIBLE' blocked pattern setting up MID MARCH rather than early March.

As we have seen in recent weeks the ECM and GFS seem to have a natural bias toward building the Azores high in for a prolonged sit in, ( this has happened for as long as i have model watched,summer or winter)and invariably overplays the strength and longevity,had charts early last week verified we would be very much under HP influence now until the end of February!

Edited by sunnijim
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A much different 6z with no anticyclonic spell towards the end like the 0z showed. It's a very unsettled run with sometimes marked temperature contrasts, this is shown next week which starts cold, windy and showery but turns much milder midweek practically everywhere apart from the Scottish mountains but then turns much colder again with a risk of snow in Wales and parts of the south, the run ends unsettled but less cold.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The signal for an increasingly fine and settled March is strengthening, the signal was stronger on the GEFS 00z mean compared to the 6z but the trend is clear to see, the jet will be pushed further north and it looks like becoming generally anticyclonic after a changeable start to march with long sunny periods and light winds and temperatures by day around average but under clear skies at night, widespread frosts with mist and fog patches..It's looking good, the risk of unsettled weather should be much lower than february.

post-4783-0-77671900-1424353069_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

All looking hopeful that this upcoming unsettled zonal period will be short lived. Much as expected as that has been the signal all winter, with 7-10 days of shifting patterns. The JMA week 2 has the heights slowly building from the south and the week 3-4 mean is promising for HP to take over:

 

post-14819-0-51871500-1424353943_thumb.p

 

Would not expect anything too cold in early March from that anomaly.

 

Looking at the D16 GEFS and absolutely no signal for any HLB. Just variations on where the jet traverses; no clear signal yet: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=384

 

The ECM ensembles suggesting average to above temps for London mostly for the next 15 days:  post-14819-0-36241500-1424354421_thumb.g

 

Looking forward to Spring as another poor Winter for the south tapers off with a whimper.

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