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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday


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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

    ECM 12Z positioning for now and then 21Z and midnight. Wider view charts not updated till later.

     

    ecm0125_millikort_msl_eqpt850_t850_20150ecm0125_millikort_msl_eqpt850_t850_20150ecm0125_millikort_msl_eqpt850_t850_20150

     

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    Is it only me, or are the 'is it a/isn't it a Polar low' reamrks just plain old semantics.........as long as I get a dumping of snow, you can call it a lesser spotted chocolate teapot if you want    

    Hi all.  Had great fun following this brilliant forum last night.  Just to introduce myself; I was senior forecaster at Manchester Weather Centre for 20 years, now retired.  I think that it was defini

    so then....members in the west believe it'll track down the irish sea giving the action in the western regions...... members in the east believe it'll track though northern england and the SE giving s

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl

    Latest ECM has a spell of heavy snowfall for the East Midlands and parts of northern England, very similar to what the new NMM shows.

     

    Hi Nick,  I see parts of south yorks could be favoured as well what area's of south yorks, I am in barnsley and from last nights showers and todays we didnt see hat much but I could see a better set up from this tonight>?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    So the BBC are going W. Going to have to disagree with them on this one!

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    Hi Nick,  I see parts of south yorks could be favoured as well what area's of south yorks, I am in barnsley and from last nights showers and todays we didnt see hat much but I could see a better set up from this tonight>?

     

     

    Going by the ECM, South Yorks looks very good! That's only one model, however, and the situation is very uncertain. We have clients in South Yorkshire so might alert the duty forecaster to the potential if he hasn't already seen it.

     

    This is what northerly flows do, they bring features out of nowhere seemingly. I just wish it was a couple of degrees cooler to guarantee any falling precip as snow everywhere. Yorkshire is certainly in colder air though.

    So the BBC are going W. Going to have to disagree with them on this one!

     

    I don't like criticising fellow forecasters, but the BBC and Met Office are notoriously slow at updating to real-time situations as we know. It's infuriating! They might be right though, you never know.

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    Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

    BBC forecast mentioned swirl off NW Scotland and also said Glasgow getting more snow tonight and going from charts on BBC Scotland then Midlands look best for tonight and also SE later.

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Indeed sir, I owe you an apology. I assumed you meant the LP system tracking down from the north on Mon/Tues

    This is very much in the category of a polar low, though I did expect it not to have any warmer air trapped, as far as I was aware, Polar lows had all got very frigid air trapped up! 

     

    Ya live and learn!

     

    Haha no worries - Must admit, this is the most fun I've had model and radar watching for quite a while

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

    Once it is over land, it will decay fairly rapidly

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    My current thoughts on the tracking of this system. Went for more of a middle ground between the ECM, EURO4 and NMM

     

    post-7073-0-66394600-1422556527_thumb.jp

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    Once it is over land, it will decay fairly rapidly

     

    Yep, they always do.

     

    I see it going through the Irish Sea, into NW England, affecting N Wales, NW England, Peak District and parts of yorkshire, before moving south into the Midlands and decaying.

     

    Those in Buxton, Castleton, Glossop could see some very large falls.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield

    I sure god dam hope so, right in the middle of that lot,Meto have upgraded here at 5.00pm from light showers to a spell of heavy snow, bring it on

    Me too :D

     

    Please sir, can I have some more?  :whistling:

    Once it is over land, it will decay fairly rapidly

    Is this based on the interpretation that it is a polar low? Would a non-polar low behave differently in terms of longevity?

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    Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts

    Guys, I'm sure we can all agree that we should blow the system a little bit more east so it effect West Yorks also.... :wink:

    Edited by saint
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    Me too :D

     

    Please sir, can I have some more?  :whistling:

    Is this based on the interpretation that it is a polar low? Would a non-polar low behave differently in terms of longevity?

     

    It is a Polar Low, and they decay very quickly. A normal LP front or trough can push right through, IE - Like today.

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    Posted
  • Location: St. Neots, south west cambs
  • Location: St. Neots, south west cambs

    So the BBC are going W. Going to have to disagree with them on this one!

    Hi TEITS, so in your opinion then, do you believe the track to be heading further East ? . If that's the case, do you think that, the snow will affect our area, moving through the midlands and clipping Peterborough then down to St Neots ? Or am I seriously clutching at straws ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

    For those mentioning the minimum 500mb temperature for formation (my understanding circa -40C) - the upper temps were very close to that just before initiation.

     

    gfs-2015012900-13-6_szw8.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    Posted
  • Location: London Waterloo 0m/ Leeds Bradford Airport 200m
  • Location: London Waterloo 0m/ Leeds Bradford Airport 200m

    I've cross referenced the current location of the low v the projected track using the high resolution net weather model.

    I've uploaded it to YouTube

    Snow map: http://youtu.be/2LXEhqoI-MY

    Track seems about right so far to me a touch further east.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

    Me too :D

     

    Please sir, can I have some more?  :whistling:

    Is this based on the interpretation that it is a polar low? Would a non-polar low behave differently in terms of longevity?

    a small scale low could move across England

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Looks to me like it's dropping S more rapidly than its moving E now. Sure are erratic these features!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield

    a small scale low could move across England

     

    Thanks for your reply. Seems most are in favour, including the pros such as yourself and Alex Deakin, that this is a polar low. Time to hope and pray that it doesn't die too quickly when it makes landfall. 

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

    Thanks for your reply. Seems most are in favour, including the pros such as yourself and Alex Deakin, that this is a polar low. Time to hope and pray that it doesn't die too quickly when it makes landfall. 

    My notes from Forecaster college say 'Satellite imagery is the only way to identify' in pencil in the margin but nothing more ...

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