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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday


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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    It will move down the western side of the UK into Wales and the SW overnight, but give predominantly rain or sleet, with snow mostly reserved for higher ground.

    But a true polar purely gives snow I think?

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    Is it only me, or are the 'is it a/isn't it a Polar low' reamrks just plain old semantics.........as long as I get a dumping of snow, you can call it a lesser spotted chocolate teapot if you want    

    Hi all.  Had great fun following this brilliant forum last night.  Just to introduce myself; I was senior forecaster at Manchester Weather Centre for 20 years, now retired.  I think that it was defini

    so then....members in the west believe it'll track down the irish sea giving the action in the western regions...... members in the east believe it'll track though northern england and the SE giving s

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

    But a true polar purely gives snow I think?

     Not necessarily I believe, it usually delivers snow, but not always, it can also deliver rain. That said, someone will see snow out of this, somewhere.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    The charts Mark Bayley post from the NMM are in my opinion about right.

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    Looking at the satellite image though Nick, the structure is barotropic rather than baroclinic (ie no frontal systems evident)

    What was picked up last weekend was not what this is - that was a secondary low which has been picked and dropped - not what we are looking at now.

    Perhaps this is just that modelled secondary though?

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
    Posted
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)

    The charts Mark Bayley post from the NMM are in my opinion about right.

     

    I think i'd agree, although perhaps move the track a nudge north and east based on the radar. Could easily give another 5-15cm for those caught in it!

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    Posted
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but Rain!
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl

    The charts Mark Bayley post from the NMM are in my opinion about right.

     

    Think its still a tad to far west on that another 50 miles east correction and it would be following the current sat images.

     

    ^ exact same thought :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    Latest ECM has a spell of heavy snowfall for the East Midlands and parts of northern England, very similar to what the new NMM shows.

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    Yup, just as I thought earlier re the track, NW England, N.Wales, into the midlands and through the SE.

    Love watching these, very exciting, associated low dew points within the system are a big plus.

    Temps can be 5C but if that dew point is negative, and the intensity, your looking at snow. Not sleet, or rain.

    I can imagine the Peak District are going to be VERY deep after this crosses through.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl

    Latest ECM has a spell of heavy snowfall for the East Midlands and parts of northern England, very similar to what the new NMM shows.

    Do you get to see the 3hr intervals nick?

    Would be interesting to know the exit point on the ECM

    SK

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole Dorset
  • Location: Poole Dorset

    Surely nothing will become of this snow wise as all weather forecasts BBC etc have not even mentioned or considered it a problem.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Surely nothing will become of this snow wise as all weather forecasts BBC etc have not even mentioned or considered it a problem.

    until the new data comes in they wont see this event coming up!! Expect changes in the forecast next couple of hours! !
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    Posted
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire

    The charts Mark Bayley post from the NMM are in my opinion about right.

     

    I sure god dam hope so, right in the middle of that lot,Meto have upgraded here at 5.00pm from light showers to a spell of heavy snow, bring it on

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    Do you get to see the 3hr intervals nick?

    Would be interesting to know the exit point on the ECM

    SK

     

    I sure do. The exit point of the centre is between the Isle of Wight and Brighton on the latest ECM. The further north and east of the centre, the better in terms of cold, but until now there was little precip modelled. There is now a streak of heavy precip going through northern England into the East Mids before moving into East Anglia. It's not especially cold but given the intensity of the precip I would imagine that would be snow. It's towards the west where it will be less wintry away from the hills.

     

    Anyway, the precipitation amounts will be a nowcast situation.

    Edited by Nick L
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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!

    Oh sod it I have to ask!!! Am I likely to be on the snow side or the rain side with it potentially going out over my head?

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    Posted
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)

    I sure do. The exit point of the centre is between the Isle of Wight and Brighton on the latest ECM. The further north and east of the centre, the better in terms of cold, but until now there was little precip modelled. There is now a streak of heavy precip going through northern England into the East Mids before moving into East Anglia. It's not especially cold but given the intensity of the precip I would imagine that would be snow. It's towards the west where it will be less wintry away from the hills.

     

    Anyway, the precipitation amounts will be a nowcast situation.

     

    By northern England i'm assuming through the NW, Yorkshire (southern parts) and into the east mids? Going to be a long night!

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    By northern England i'm assuming through the NW, Yorkshire (southern parts) and into the east mids? Going to be a long night!

     

    Yes should have clarified that further, lots going on!

     

    From now on the radar, satellite and reports on the ground are going to be more use than the models :)

    Edited by Nick L
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl

    I sure do. The exit point of the centre is between the Isle of Wight and Brighton on the latest ECM. The further north and east of the centre, the better in terms of cold, but until now there was little precip modelled. There is now a streak of heavy precip going through northern England into the East Mids before moving into East Anglia. It's not especially cold but given the intensity of the precip I would imagine that would be snow. It's towards the west where it will be less wintry away from the hills.

     

    Anyway, the precipitation amounts will be a nowcast situation.

    Much appreciated, cheers pal.

    Looks like we have ourselves an ECM/NMM v Euro4/MetO Meso battle on our hands then.

    Let the battle commence!

    SK

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    Posted
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)

    Yes should have clarified that further, lots going on!

     

    From now on the radar, satellite and reports on the ground are going to be more use than the models :)

     

    Thanks :). An exciting evening! Yes, on to now casting, although good see a shift north

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    Along with the NMM that was posted the track is becoming clearer.

     

    The Euro4 appears slightly too far W based on the Sat pics.

    http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/29/basis12/ukuk/pslv/15013006_2912.gif

     

    ECM has the low exiting Kent.

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012912/ECM1-24.GIF?29-0

     

    So in my opinion the low will hit NW England (Lancs) then move SE hitting S Yorks/N Midlands then E Midlands and finally heading off towards Essex.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    Thanks :). An exciting evening! Yes, on to now casting, although good see a shift north

     

    I'm glad I'm not working tonight I can tell you that! I think I need more beers... :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    I suspect the ECM track may be too far east and the Euro4 too far west. Looking at the radar, although the echoes are pulsing wnw-ese, the feature as a whole is moving se or sse. I suspect it will try and hug the Irish Sea for as long as possible.

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    Posted
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)

    I'm glad I'm not working tonight I can tell you that! I think I need more beers... :D

     

    haha i can't imagine what its like in the meto at the moment. I imagine some orange warnings later!

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    "Polar Lows" don't have to originate from the Pole, a Polar Low could form in the North Sea, they're called "Polar" lows because they from in unstable polar airflows.

     

    Though this is getting off topic, only half an hour until the 12z starts to roll out

    Indeed sir, I owe you an apology. I assumed you meant the LP system tracking down from the north on Mon/Tues

    This is very much in the category of a polar low, though I did expect it not to have any warmer air trapped, as far as I was aware, Polar lows had all got very frigid air trapped up! 

     

    Ya live and learn!

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Along with the NMM that was posted the track is becoming clearer.

     

    The Euro4 appears slightly too far W based on the Sat pics.

    http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/29/basis12/ukuk/pslv/15013006_2912.gif

     

    ECM has the low exiting Kent.

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012912/ECM1-24.GIF?29-0

     

    So in my opinion the low will hit NW England (Lancs) then move SE hitting S Yorks/N Midlands then E Midlands and finally heading off towards Essex.

     

    So those NE of the front are the ones likely to face the snow?

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