Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

    Will the direction of its movement not be more guided by the overall flow of the trough? By midnight tonight the trough is digging quite far south into France and not tailing off to the SE as might usually be the case - so to my eye it would be odd to see it spin eastwards quite as early as that?

     

    fax24s.gif?2

     

    Agreed, however given it's slightly further east than it's forecast position, and the flow is indeed down the Irish sea I would suggest it will track slightly east of current thought.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 526
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Is it only me, or are the 'is it a/isn't it a Polar low' reamrks just plain old semantics.........as long as I get a dumping of snow, you can call it a lesser spotted chocolate teapot if you want    

    Hi all.  Had great fun following this brilliant forum last night.  Just to introduce myself; I was senior forecaster at Manchester Weather Centre for 20 years, now retired.  I think that it was defini

    so then....members in the west believe it'll track down the irish sea giving the action in the western regions...... members in the east believe it'll track though northern england and the SE giving s

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    I wonder if the express are paying attention, bet nobody there has ever heard of a polar low before. A new buzz weather phase to drop into their snow sensation stories, JM are you watching, repeat after me Polar Low, could in the right hands be snow measured in metres not centimetres.

    knowing the DE, we'd see a headline akin to "Deadly Polar Vortex Spreads Absolute Zero Temps Across Britain"  :fool: 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    I have no idea but you seem very certain and I am amazed how sure you can be! I can just look outside and to me it feels cold with some snow on its way and earlier forecasts of rain and sleet haven't happened.

     

    This system has less cold air within it. It's on a knife-edge but lower levels are on the rain/sleet side of the fence in my opinion. Higher ground will get a bucketload.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

    That'll be the exact track tonight right there..right split between my household!

    post-10778-0-58197500-1422552119_thumb.p

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

    knowing the DE, we'd see a headline akin to "Deadly Polar Vortex Spreads Absolute Zero Temps Across Britain"  :fool: 

     

    Reminds me of The Day After Tomorrow...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    I remember John Kettley mis-forecasting one in great detail back in winter 03/04 - would have brought major snow event to the officially snowless city of Lancaster, for the first time in 7/8 years.

     

    It never came and I destroyed my sink in anger.

     

    Similar experience - not by JK - nailed on event on the Fylde everything just perfect  - just a matter of time and we got freezing rain - horrendous stuff - ppn fell through a "warm sector" apparently.

     

    Ian

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    Similar experience - not by JK - nailed on event on the Fylde everything just perfect  - just a matter of time and we got freezing rain - horrendous stuff - ppn fell through a "warm sector" apparently.

     

    Ian

     

    Freezing rain could well be an issue with this for a time. Depends how long the ground gets to cool before it arrives.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    I remember John Kettley mis-forecasting one in great detail back in winter 03/04 - would have brought major snow event to the officially snowless city of Lancaster, for the first time in 7/8 years.

     

    It never came and I destroyed my sink in anger.

     

    A case of PPN mis-selling?

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    anim_ir.gif

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

    I really do hope the Daily Express don't pick up on this:(

     

    I can do without my friends texting me and asking if there is a "Polar vortex of death with snow tornadoes and lightning tsunamis" on the way.

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    The (potential) Polar low can be seen to the bottom right of this MODIS image

     

    jGWuwL0.jpg

     

     

    And to the top left of this.

     

    kVF1BKO.jpg

     

     

    More images here http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?area=eu

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

    knowing the DE, we'd see a headline akin to "Deadly Polar Vortex Spreads Absolute Zero Temps Across Britain"  :fool: 

    It's been done! There was one during April in the early 70s. Gave us about 10 inches. Clearly journalists did their research in those days, the headline of our local rag that night was, "SNOWED UP BY A POLAR LOW".

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    I think it could affect parts of SE - those more to the N & W are favoured, it is a beast let's hope it does its duty. I've been glued to the screen for nearly 2 hours something is stirring thats for sure. :)

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

    Don't rule anything out as this polar low comes South.

    Yes it has embedded Atlantic (less cold ) air mixed in.

    However snow has fallen as low as 25m above sea level today and on some surfaces remained.

    Dew points at Barry ( right on the coast are currently -0.3

    temperature 2 c on coast.

    Inland snow will assist with keeping dew points and temp low

    Then as we saw today heavy precipitation will drop temperatures further with evaporative cooling.

    today 3c to 1c in a few minutes at around 3pm

     

    So marginal for many on low ground, but not impossible. 

     

    Just to add

    Maybe thunder snow possible too

    Edited by pyrotech
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    http://www.sat24.com/

     

    Is that a Polar Low forming to the North-West of Scotland? Just skirted over a few models and can't see a low that extensive being forecasted anywhere

    It was showing as secondary formation as early as last weekend on the models not sure its a true polar low, thought the 850s had to substantially colder in those?

    It's been done! There was one during April in the early 70s. Gave us about 10 inches. Clearly journalists did their research in those days, the headline of our local rag that night was, "SNOWED UP BY A POLAR LOW".

    March 1970 actually and yes that was a true polar low residing in -10c uppers.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    Based on what I have seen this is going to hit NW England and track SE across the Midlands and exiting around London.

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    Surely by definition Chino, if it's been around long enough to be picked up on the 0z ECM, it is definitely not a Polar low?

    Quite it was 'picked up' as early as last weekend

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield

    I really do hope the Daily Express don't pick up on this:(

     

    I can do without my friends texting me and asking if there is a "Polar vortex of death with snow tornadoes and lightning tsunamis" on the way.

     

    Well it's a bit late for them to pick up on it now. Usually if there's a sniff of cold weather at T+384 that's when Madden gets alerted and gets his fake plastic staff to spiel soundbytes. :D

     

    Lightning tsunamis?! LOL, even Madden wouldn't go that far. You're being silly. Stop it :p

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

    Though I imagine it was picked up as a wave (indicating a simply trough), not a fully fledged secondary low/polar low.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    I'm not entirely convinced it is a polar low as the low was up near Iceland yesterday evening as an open wave and seems to have formed at a boundary between less cold air coming west from Scandi aloft wrapping around the parent low just NE of the UK sandwiched between cold air over the UK and coming down from Greenland, with the 'warmer' air occluded out aloft as can be seen in the T500 chart for noon today:

     

    attachicon.gifH500_12.png

     

    Normally would expect 500mb air temps to be around -40C or below, -35C at the warmest extreme perhaps, can't really see the airmass over the low that cold.

     

    Polar lows tend to be barotropic (forming within a cold airmass) rather than baroclinic (along boundaries of airmasses).

     

    12z UKMO (meso) takes the little low to the NW southeast down across N Ireland then Wales then out across English Channel  around Dorset/Hants - looks like sleet and snow from this feature this evening across N Ireland then overnight mostly to the west of London -especially across Wales and the West Country overnight.

    Looking at the satellite image though Nick, the structure is barotropic rather than baroclinic (ie no frontal systems evident)

    Quite it was 'picked up' as early as last weekend

    What was picked up last weekend was not what this is - that was a secondary low which has been picked and dropped - not what we are looking at now.

    Edited by chionomaniac
    got baroclinic and tropic wrong places!
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl

    Based on what I have seen this is going to hit NW England and track SE across the Midlands and exiting around London.

    Looks like a good call to me

    I haven't had a chance to take a proper look yet as I'm on the way home but it already appears on radar to be a little further East of the projected positioning on many short range models with the track more SSE than S

    These things always spring a lot of surprises though - best to wait and see what happens when it makes full landfall

    SK

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

    Any chance of snow in northeast England tonight?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)

    12zNMM. Already further east !

     

    nmmuk-1-5-0.png?29-18

     

    NW England by midnight, perhaps (slightly) further east?

    nmmuk-1-11-0.png?29-18

    Spell of heavy snow for South Yorkshire, North and East Midlands 

    nmmuk-1-13-0.png?29-18

    Edited by Mark Bayley
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...