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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday


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Is it only me, or are the 'is it a/isn't it a Polar low' reamrks just plain old semantics.........as long as I get a dumping of snow, you can call it a lesser spotted chocolate teapot if you want    

Hi all.  Had great fun following this brilliant forum last night.  Just to introduce myself; I was senior forecaster at Manchester Weather Centre for 20 years, now retired.  I think that it was defini

so then....members in the west believe it'll track down the irish sea giving the action in the western regions...... members in the east believe it'll track though northern england and the SE giving s

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Posted
  • Location: Lake District, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather of all kinds, natural disasters and catastrophes.
  • Location: Lake District, Cumbria

    what is bolton, lancs chances of seeing anything from this.

     

    had barely a squiff and no lying snow whatsoever now...

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Euro4 has it tracking a bit further east with slightly colder air entrained.

    Could be enough to tip the balance to snow? I reckon the Metoffice could be watching this one closely.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

    Euro4 has it tracking a bit further east with slightly colder air entrained.

     In my experience this is the more normal situation with regards to Polar Lows track in the Irish sea, so I would not be surprised if Euro4 is on the money. So long as it doesn't die out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

    Could be enough to tip the balance to snow? I reckon the Metoffice could be watching this one closely.

    How much further east? I don't have link to the model

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    Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl

    Yes looks east of the track the ECM thinks, think Cheshire could do well if it doesn't fizzle out in the Irish Sea.

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    Yes looks east of the track the ECM thinks, think Cheshire could do well if it doesn't fizzle out in the Irish Sea.

     

    Last one I seen fizzled out and lost all it's intensity really quickly and didn't really drop anything.

     

    One before that that I remember dropped a foot of snow, so it all really depends on how intense it is, usually by now though, you can see it start to fizzle.

     

    Should be a good watch !

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)

    Is it just me, or has this low lost its "eye"?

     

    Think it looks less impressive as its getting dark more than anything, the infra red view looks fairly similar to earlier still

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Can see how the NetWx-SR has modelled it on the 6z data (will update later with 12z stuff)

     

    attachicon.gifpl1.png

    attachicon.gifpl2.png

    attachicon.gifpl3.png

    attachicon.gifpl4.png

    attachicon.gifpl6.png

     

    Some tasty gusts in there too

    attachicon.gifgusts.png

     

    And of course snow...

    attachicon.gifsnow.png

     

    All low confidence even at this point though...

     

    Already well east of that 'predicted' 1700hr prediction so better nudge everything 70 or so miles east at least? I think it's coming in somewhere from Lakes to N. Wales? With that shield of cloud around it ( look at the 4pm meto visible and note the shadow of the clouds from its NW segment???, pretty tall stuff eh? Thundersnow later???)

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales

    Think it looks less impressive as its getting dark more than anything, the infra red view looks fairly similar to earlier still

    good point ! :)

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Got a probable cheshire gap streamer setting up aswell before the main event!! So Places such as south Yorkshire, east wales and midlands could get a double whammy!also dew points looking fantastic across northern ireland and north west Scotland still!!

    Edited by shaky
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    Posted
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but Rain!
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl

    So is that the PPN Showing up on the Radar?

     

     

    Yes and lots of it

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)

    Got a probable cheshire gap streamer setting up aswell before the main event!! So Places such as south Yorkshire, east wales and midlands could get a double whammy!

     

    that streamer looks like stoke might do ok soon dies out afterwards  though :(

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    I'm not entirely convinced it is a polar low as the low was up near Iceland yesterday evening as an open wave and seems to have formed at a boundary between less cold air coming west from Scandi aloft wrapping around the parent low just NE of the UK sandwiched between cold air over the UK and coming down from Greenland, with the 'warmer' air occluded out aloft as can be seen in the T500 chart for noon today:

     

    attachicon.gifH500_12.png

     

    Normally would expect 500mb air temps to be around -40C or below, -35C at the warmest extreme perhaps, can't really see the airmass over the low that cold.

     

    Polar lows tend to be barotropic (forming within a cold airmass) rather than baroclinic (along boundaries of airmasses).

     

    12z UKMO (meso) takes the little low to the NW southeast down across N Ireland then Wales then out across English Channel  around Dorset/Hants - looks like sleet and snow from this feature this evening across N Ireland then overnight mostly to the west of London -especially across Wales and the West Country overnight.

    Yes, Nick that's my view as well. Not a polar Low. A true Polar Low forms in its own cold air mass. Picture attached of the type of cold layers required ( example of this instant back in 1969 ) The 850 mb temps were -20c between Iceland and Scotland, -15c over Scotland and -10c over much of England and Wales and the 500mb layer above that -40c. On this instant 18 inch snowfall occurred in the NW of England and more on the peaks and day temp necver got above -5c at sea level. Thats type of temperature profile is required for a true polar low.post-3489-0-17474500-1422550183_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Latest BBC forecasts are mentioning the "swirl of cloud" now mentioning some concern with it, wasn't there on earlier forecasts

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    Well I've got to get my body clock ready for night shifts starting tomorrow, so might as well stay up late for this! Could be fun viewing...

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Still waiting on the 12z images from the NW Sr model but the 06z run does have the low coming se across C.England with some sub-zero dewpoints to the north and east of it's core.

     

    post-2026-0-25946900-1422550650_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-46819000-1422550637_thumb.pn

     

    i would think a decent chance of snowfall away from the south west quarter as it comes through.

    Definitely a now cast situation and radar watching.

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    Posted
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)

    Latest NMM, albeit the French version. Further North and west than the 6z, although by small amounts only. Its going to be very interesting watch this one unfold!

    nmm-1-13-0.png?29-17

    Edited by Mark Bayley
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    Posted
  • Location: Highworth (122m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and a cracking thunderstorm
  • Location: Highworth (122m ASL)

    It's looking nice from the 1600z satellite pic.

    2015-01-29-1600-PL.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

     In my experience this is the more normal situation with regards to Polar Lows track in the Irish sea, so I would not be surprised if Euro4 is on the money. So long as it doesn't die out.

     

    Will the direction of its movement not be more guided by the overall flow of the trough? By midnight tonight the trough is digging quite far south into France and not tailing off to the SE as might usually be the case - so to my eye it would be odd to see it spin eastwards quite as early as that?

     

    fax24s.gif?2

     

    EDIT - running the satellite image over and over it looks to me as though the 06z Euro4 slightly overcooked the speed of its move south. Looks to me to be a bit further north than expected? So with the trough elongating south by the hour I'll give a punt for a relatively lacking-in-technical-knowledge kind of guess that it might  cross Wales a bit further south and track somewhere in a line from Gloucester down to the south coast somewhere close to East Dorset. Snow on its northern flank to affect the NW then down through mid Wales, Gloucs, Worcs, Oxon, Berks, Warwick, Wilts. High ground to the west - Wales, Mendips, Exmoor also to get into the action a bit. A bit too far east for MBY but still will be fun to watch. If I can keep my eyes open that long of course...

    Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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    Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

    I wonder if the express are paying attention, bet nobody there has ever heard of a polar low before. A new buzz weather phase to drop into their snow sensation stories, JM are you watching, repeat after me Polar Low, could in the right hands be snow measured in metres not centimetres.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)

    I wonder if the express are paying attention, bet nobody there has ever heard of a polar low before. A new buzz weather phase to drop into their snow sensation stories, JM are you watching, repeat after me Polar Low, could in the right hands be snow measured in metres not centimetres.

     

    Good job we dont have the governor of New York in charge, a state of emergency would be issued right around now  :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield

    Well regardless, it won't be cold enough for the most part.

    I have no idea but you seem very certain and I am amazed how sure you can be! I can just look outside and to me it feels cold with some snow on its way and earlier forecasts of rain and sleet haven't happened.

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