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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday


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Is it only me, or are the 'is it a/isn't it a Polar low' reamrks just plain old semantics.........as long as I get a dumping of snow, you can call it a lesser spotted chocolate teapot if you want    

Hi all.  Had great fun following this brilliant forum last night.  Just to introduce myself; I was senior forecaster at Manchester Weather Centre for 20 years, now retired.  I think that it was defini

so then....members in the west believe it'll track down the irish sea giving the action in the western regions...... members in the east believe it'll track though northern england and the SE giving s

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Well it's only the SW and Wales that the precip will affect really. All areas will become less cold overnight, although northeast England will cling on to the colder air.

    Confusing because Matt Hugo tweeted this

    "Curly-swirly...Polar low-type feature (not an official one) set to bring some snow to SW Scot and NW Eng later today. pic.twitter.com/Dtj6dGotTn

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    Eh? On the Western side they usually track, throwing off a lot of convection in the Irish Sea and into the NW.

     

    I have seen one of these deliver a Foot of snow in the NW.

     

    Confusing because Matt Hugo tweeted this

    "Curly-swirly...Polar low-type feature (not an official one) set to bring some snow to SW Scot and NW Eng later today. pic.twitter.com/Dtj6dGotTn

     

    Only going by the ECM, doesn't show anything really for those areas, goes through Ireland and into Wales and the SW.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

    Well it's only the SW and Wales that the precip will affect really. All areas will become less cold overnight, although northeast England will cling on to the colder air.

    Problem is nick is us in northeast England will we get any precipitation for snowfall?

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    So if a polar low can't be modelled

     

    What is GFS modelling SE top of Iceland?

    Call it an embedded shortwave trough if you like but really isn't it the model trying to predict instability and would it not be potentially a polar low?

     

    I'm not entirely convinced it is a polar low as the low was up near Iceland yesterday evening as an open wave and seems to have formed at a boundary between less cold air coming west from Scandi aloft wrapping around the parent low just NE of the UK sandwiched between cold air over the UK and coming down from Greenland, with the 'warmer' air occluded out aloft as can be seen in the T500 chart for noon today:

     

    post-1052-0-99830200-1422549005_thumb.pn

     

    Normally would expect 500mb air temps to be around -40C or below, -35C at the warmest extreme perhaps, can't really see the airmass over the low that cold.

     

    Polar lows tend to be barotropic (forming within a cold airmass) rather than baroclinic (along boundaries of airmasses).

     

    12z UKMO (meso) takes the little low to the NW southeast down across N Ireland then Wales then out across English Channel  around Dorset/Hants - looks like sleet and snow from this feature this evening across N Ireland then overnight mostly to the west of London -especially across Wales and the West Country overnight.

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Folk need to remember that it is tied to the mother low and so it's track will be around her and moving 'with' her?

     

    I see it ( decaying or not) tracking into the country via lakes to N.Wales ish? That places it across NWest, West Yorks ,Derbyshire and on toward the coast. Its cargo is spread over its width so either side of its track will see that 'cargo' ( rain /sleet/snow). 

     

    If you look at where it has been drawing air in from I'd take suggestions of 'milder' with a tad of sceptisism? Those thoughts were based on mother low and her dictates but her 'son' has skewed things a bit? 

     

    Ingested air from Sweden and heavy draw down of air from above. What was marginal for some might well now be 'On'?

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    I'll eat my hat if the ECM predicts it's track 100% spot on.

     

    Well regardless, it won't be cold enough for the most part.

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    Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

    Don't polar lows also decay rapidly on reaching land too? Much like hurricanes? Not at all convinced this is the real mccoy.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Can see how the NetWx-SR has modelled it on the 6z data (will update later with 12z stuff)

     

    post-2-0-94736300-1422549341_thumb.png

    post-2-0-52380100-1422549339_thumb.png

    post-2-0-13899800-1422549337_thumb.png

    post-2-0-56659800-1422549334_thumb.png

    post-2-0-99454400-1422549331_thumb.png

     

    Some tasty gusts in there too

    post-2-0-65988300-1422549393_thumb.png

     

    And of course snow...

    post-2-0-91886200-1422549415_thumb.png

     

    All low confidence even at this point though...

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    Click it then click the save button bottom right :)

     I mean this video graphic... :-)

     

    http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

     

    Can anyone help me save this? 

    Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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    Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

    It is a polar low, they aren't that rare, it is like a trough line but gets its own circulation, caught in the flow south. Met OFfice have said it is a polar low for those who are waiting on Ian F's opinion. MO model moves it across NI and then Wales with heavy PPN

     

    Ive witnessed some cracking Polar Lows, they form, but unfortunately I've rarely seen them barrelling down the Irish Sea.. they tend to die off Northwest Scotland in my own experience, but I still recall an absolutely amazing thundersnow event from a Polar Low back in 1995 or thereabouts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Folk need to remember that it is tied to the mother low and so it's track will be around her and moving 'with' her?

    I see it ( decaying or not) tracking into the country via lakes to N.Wales ish? That places it across NWest, West Yorks ,Derbyshire and on toward the coast. Its cargo is spread over its width so either side of its track will see that 'cargo' ( rain /sleet/snow).

    If you look at where it has been drawing air in from I'd take suggestions of 'milder' with a tad of sceptisism? Those thoughts were based on mother low and her dictates but her 'son' has skewed things a bit?

    Ingested air from Sweden and heavy draw down of air from above. What was marginal for some might well now be 'On'?

    I agree, I don't think this is looking as clear cut as some of the NWP is making it out to be. Some areas will most likely take a hammering from this. Even if it is a high ground only event, precipitation rates could potentially see a foot of snow fall.

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    Euro4 has it tracking a bit further east with slightly colder air entrained.

    Edited by Nick L
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    Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

    Thanks for them Graphics Paul...

     

    Can guarantee, someone, somewhere is going to get a dumping from this feature, almost blizzard like conditions.

     

    If I was in N.Wales,and parts of the NW / Mids North, i'd be getting twitchy.

    What about Scotland or does it depend on the track?

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    Posted
  • Location: NW Wales
  • Location: NW Wales

    Thanks for them Graphics Paul...

     

    Can guarantee, someone, somewhere is going to get a dumping from this feature, almost blizzard like conditions.

     

    If I was in N.Wales,and parts of the NW / Mids North, i'd be getting twitchy.

    N Wales you say, I like this

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    I agree, I don't think this is looking as clear cut as some of the NWP is making it out to be. Some areas will most likely take a hammering from this. Even if it is a high ground only event, precipitation rates could potentially see a foot of snow fall.

     

    I think a foot of snowfall is probably a tad over optimistic.. But I agree with you on the models probably not having the track nailed down.

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    What about Scotland or does it depend on the track?

     

    Really depends on the track but I think Glasgow could be on the *edge* of the system, so you might be lucky.

     

    It appears looking at data & sat it could track into the Irish Sea, picking up more moisture.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    An interesting bonus feature this Polar Low :)  

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    I think a foot of snowfall is probably a tad over optimistic.. But I agree with you on the models probably not having the track nailed down.

    Yes, that's top end stuff-somewhere like Buxton etc.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL

    If it does go slightly east then id say West and South Yorkshire are in with a good shout as wed be on the NE side of it, and colder air. Will be a night of radar watching anyway lol!

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