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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday


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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    what is the predicted track of this please, if anyone knows lol :)

     

    Looks like it will hit directly into Barnsley :D

     

    nah, nobody knows at this stage :)

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    Is it only me, or are the 'is it a/isn't it a Polar low' reamrks just plain old semantics.........as long as I get a dumping of snow, you can call it a lesser spotted chocolate teapot if you want    

    Hi all.  Had great fun following this brilliant forum last night.  Just to introduce myself; I was senior forecaster at Manchester Weather Centre for 20 years, now retired.  I think that it was defini

    so then....members in the west believe it'll track down the irish sea giving the action in the western regions...... members in the east believe it'll track though northern england and the SE giving s

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    Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

    what is the predicted track of this please, if anyone knows lol :)

     No one can possibly know, however given the low will require warm water to survive, it will try to track down the Irish sea. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford

    what are they and what do they mean? how long do they last? is it expected to hit now or next week?

    See the post above yours.

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    what is the predicted track of this please, if anyone knows lol :)

     

    Hard to tell yet, they are so erratic.

     

    Looking like through West Scotland, NW England, NW wales, and through the Midlands to SE...

     

    Albeit that's just a track i'm projecting, I doubt it would ever make it as far because they lose intensity quickly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    So, to cut to the chase, which areas are likely to benefit from this creature this eve and tonite?

     

    See my above post. The air will be less cold overnight, high ground in Wales and the SW could see a fair bit of snow. Mostly rain and sleet for lower levels. 

     

    This was picked up by the ECM, it isn't something that has appeared out of nowhere.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Looks like it's heading straight for the Cheshire gap. Now that would be interesting!

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley, South Yorkshire 99m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: cold,snowy,frosty and thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley, South Yorkshire 99m ASL

    thankyou for all your replies, fingers firmly crossed my region wants a pasting haha :)

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    See my above post. The air will be less cold overnight, high ground in Wales and the SW could see a fair bit of snow. Mostly rain and sleet for lower levels. 

     

    This was picked up by the ECM, it isn't something that has appeared out of nowhere.

     

    It's a cold unstable airmass, it wont have warm air wrapped.

     

    They rarely deliver rain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

    Ian Fergusson on twitter just tweeted about this sounds like he may think this is a polar low. 

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    See my above post. The air will be less cold overnight, high ground in Wales and the SW could see a fair bit of snow. Mostly rain and sleet for lower levels. 

     

    This was picked up by the ECM, it isn't something that has appeared out of nowhere.

     

    So if this was predicted, the path is known, it won't bring any additional snow and probably just rain to the south... why does it have its own thread? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

    See my above post. The air will be less cold overnight, high ground in Wales and the SW could see a fair bit of snow. Mostly rain and sleet for lower levels. 

     

    This was picked up by the ECM, it isn't something that has appeared out of nowhere.

     I would not like to be the one making the prediction.. if it's more east than it's current situation, it could well deliver a fair bit if snow to western Mainland. Should it take it's forecast track however, a warm 'sector' will be evident. That said I've seen Polar Low type features before deliver rain, so it's not always snow of course.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    It's a cold unstable airmass, it wont have warm air wrapped.

     

    They rarely deliver rain.

     

    Wet Bulb 850 pot temps will be 4 or 5, dew points will be positive for the SW, it will not be cold enough for decent snow at lower levels. Wales will have more favourable dew points. Warmer air will be associated with this. The ECM shows it clearly.

     

    Higher ground will get a pasting.

    Edited by Nick L
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    Posted
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport

    From IF on twitter

    W COUNTRY We will be closely watching the polar low development tonight as it *might* yield problematic lying snow in some areas esp to N-E

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    Wet Bulb 850 pot temps will be 4 or 5, dew points will be positive for the SW, it will not be cold enough for decent snow at lower levels. Wales will have more favourable dew points. Warmer air will be associated with this. The ECM shows it clearly.

     

    Higher ground will get a pasting.

     

    Apologies, I didn't realise you was talking about the SW as up North we are negative on values.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    The 'little low' is just starting to come into the MetO rainfall radar range and the 'wrap around' of clouds looks to have a lot of snow on it? Could it be forming that rare beastie the 'Polar Low'?

     

    Polar_low.jpg

     

    Polar Low over Barentsz back in 87'

     

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_low

     

     

    Seems like us Yorkies were ahead of the game ( yet again! )

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    Apologies, I didn't realise you was talking about the SW as up North we are negative on values.

     

    Well it's only the SW and Wales that the precip will affect really. All areas will become less cold overnight, although northeast England will cling on to the colder air.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    Is it possible to save that satellite graphic to a file? I would really like to be able to save it if possible... Any techies out there know of a way?

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    Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

    The one thing that perhaps has been overlooked, is if it should maintain it's current structure, it will deliver something (whether than be rain, hail, sleet or snow) for quite a wide area.. as long as it does not die/weaken.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Is it possible to save that satellite graphic to a file? I would really like to be able to save it if possible... Any techies out there know of a way?

     

    Click it then click the save button bottom right :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Polar lows are defined as small but intense maritime meso-scale cyclones that form in cold polar or arctic air advected over relatively warmer water. Polar lows are much smaller and more transient than a regular mid-latitude depression.

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    Well it's only the SW and Wales that the precip will affect really. All areas will become less cold overnight, although northeast England will cling on to the colder air.

     

    Eh? On the Western side they usually track, throwing off a lot of convection in the Irish Sea and into the NW.

     

    I have seen one of these deliver a Foot of snow in the NW.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Polar lows are defined as small but intense maritime meso-scale cyclones that form in cold polar or arctic air advected over relatively warmer water. Polar lows are much smaller and more transient than a regular mid-latitude depression.

    That thing we are observing certainly fits that description well !

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