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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday


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Is it only me, or are the 'is it a/isn't it a Polar low' reamrks just plain old semantics.........as long as I get a dumping of snow, you can call it a lesser spotted chocolate teapot if you want    

Hi all.  Had great fun following this brilliant forum last night.  Just to introduce myself; I was senior forecaster at Manchester Weather Centre for 20 years, now retired.  I think that it was defini

so then....members in the west believe it'll track down the irish sea giving the action in the western regions...... members in the east believe it'll track though northern england and the SE giving s

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

    Going off what the 0z ECM did pick up I would hardly suggest it correctly saw this system at all

     

    I would say that the model did well, just a little further west- CF the 15Z model frame with the WV satellite for same time.

     

    rD2l1LV.png  seviri_nat_wv_low_20150129_1500.png

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  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)

    I would say that the model did well, just a little further west- CF the 15Z model frame with the WV satellite for same time.

     

    rD2l1LV.png  seviri_nat_wv_low_20150129_1500.png

     

    Better for most being a little further east as any precip associated will be more likely to effect some rather than just being over the sea

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  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    So if a polar low can't be modelled

     

    gfs-0-90.png?12

     

    What is GFS modelling SE top of Iceland?

    Call it an embedded shortwave trough if you like but really isn't it the model trying to predict instability and would it not be potentially a polar low?

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  • Location: Upton, Northampton.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.

    Wait, so this is actually a Polar Low?! I thought it was just the low pressure that is being shown on the GFS charts?

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  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL

    can i just ask why its not predicted to survive coming south? Im not really clued up on polar lows. Do they by nature just appear and dissapear quickly? A bit like tornadoes do (but obv PL a bit longer)

    If the track is down the Irish sea then isnt that good? The 'warm' water and cold air above? Like lake effect snow? Id have thought it would keep its strength. But its all a learning curve for me :)

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  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Surely by definition Chino, if it's been around long enough to be picked up on the 0z ECM, it is definitely not a Polar low?

    I don't see why they have to be completely unforecastable,  just because they previously were? The models should be able to pick up where lows (polar origin) are likely to form and then create a path for them. Well done to the ECM if it has. 

     

    It looks, tastes, smells, is in the correct area and thicknesses and acts like a polar low but isn't until a met says so? No, I still think it is.

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  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

    It was back in the day (say 10 years ago) improbable for a model to forecast a Polar Low, but I would suggest they've got better at handling it. I recall a Polar Low a fair few year back, which was pretty well forecast by model outputs, around 12 hours out (from it's conception).. so models can forecast these.. what they ECM shows is a Polar Low losing energy and becoming a trough as it moves south.. though it's position might be anywhere.

    Edited by SP1986
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  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    I'm thinking I may split the polar low discussion out into it's own thread, as it looks like an interesting one to watch and track!

     

    Cheers Paul.

     

    I'm assuming this would give some impressive accumulations!

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  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

    Wait, so this is actually a Polar Low?! I thought it was just the low pressure that is being shown on the GFS charts?

     No that's just west of the Norwegian coast.

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  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3

    I would say that the model did well, just a little further west- CF the 15Z model frame with the WV satellite for same time.

     

    rD2l1LV.png  seviri_nat_wv_low_20150129_1500.png

    It initialised a low fairly well locationally but I was more reffering what it does with it in the second output chart you posted.. as in treatment of down the line. In those charts it really makes nothing of the low at all

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  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    The ECM definitely picked this feature up.

     

    post-7600-0-36347500-1422547922_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

    Just to add, it has a good convective rain rate - isn't that a good signature for it being a polar low?

     

    seviri-nwcsaf_crr1_20150129_1530.gif

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  • Location: Freshwater Isle of Wight
  • Location: Freshwater Isle of Wight

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif

     

    The Met O have analysed a low to NW of Scotland at 12Z and the plotted chart shows an opening of the isobars over NW Scotland.

    http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?date=0〈=en&map=UK&size=large

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  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL

    Thanks, could be an interesting evening especially as I am located on the predicted northern flank of this!

     

    Thanks for the link to the satellite animations as well, great to watch.

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  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

    when was the last time a polar low occured and how rare are they?

     The last one I remember myself was one from about 2001-2002.. it was decaying as it moved down but still gave a slightly covering in the form of showers. Other than that 1995 would be the last major one.. giving almost a foot of snow here, along with incredible night thunderstorm.

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  • Location: Barnsley, South Yorkshire 99m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: cold,snowy,frosty and thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley, South Yorkshire 99m ASL

    what is the predicted track of this please, if anyone knows lol :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    what is the predicted track of this please, if anyone knows lol :)

     

    It will move down the western side of the UK into Wales and the SW overnight, but give predominantly rain or sleet, with snow mostly reserved for higher ground.

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