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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday


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Is it only me, or are the 'is it a/isn't it a Polar low' reamrks just plain old semantics.........as long as I get a dumping of snow, you can call it a lesser spotted chocolate teapot if you want    

Hi all.  Had great fun following this brilliant forum last night.  Just to introduce myself; I was senior forecaster at Manchester Weather Centre for 20 years, now retired.  I think that it was defini

so then....members in the west believe it'll track down the irish sea giving the action in the western regions...... members in the east believe it'll track though northern england and the SE giving s

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Sat Infra red is showing a worrying development, the northern flank has lost definition, and seems to be disintegrating. Was perfect swirl and now its just a mess on the northern side.

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no the low will go east of hampshire and give ten foot of snow to Peterborough

Naa! We are actually a snow shield believe it or not. The city can sometimes see barely anything but when you go literally 10 miles north into Lincolnshire, they always seem to get tonnes of it.

Don't know what it is, but it happens so many times!

I think you are actually in a favoured area for this tbh mate.

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Very good estimate , puts mids , East wales , and maybe Oxford in firing line , exactly my predicted path '')

Is everyone too scared to give an estimation ?

nope..........6ft through all of england, and I'm a rampaholic  :drunk:

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It is weakening and it has been elongating for a little while now looking at the radar. Still the models never were forecasting that strong of a system, moderate snowfall seems most likely, hence why the idea of 1-3cms for most in the track was always about right, maybe a small area of 5cms, but it will be a tight line right along the core of the system.

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It is weakening and it has been elongating for a little while now looking at the radar. Still the models never were forecasting that strong of a system, moderate snowfall seems most likely, hence why the idea of 1-3cms for most in the track was always about right, maybe a small area of 5cms, but it will be a tight line right along the core of the system.

Could be due to the drier air engaging with it. I expect more precip to be generated over the core of the Irish Sea.

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We are certainly starting to see it decay now as it encounters land.

And tracking further west atm along / off the east coast of Ireland Nick ??

Edited by Biggin
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Euro 4 at 3am suggests snow for Wales, the band across NW England will move SE into E Midlands.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/29/basis18/ukuk/prec/15013003_2918.gif

 

 

Looks like the band across NW England/E Midlands will be snow, rain for Wales, SW.

Edited by TEITS
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18z UKMO (meso) only really showing loosely organised bands of snow showers wrapped around this low as it tracks across the Midlands by 3am and eventually the SE of England by 6am ... so could be hit and miss with accumulations, some areas getting 2-5cm, while others barely a dusting or nada.

 

18z EURO4 similar in track to 18z UKMO:

 

post-1052-0-49102300-1422573521_thumb.gi

 

post-1052-0-11006900-1422573644_thumb.gi

Edited by Nick F
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attachicon.gifScreenshot_2015-01-29-23-08-01.png

Iv noticed that once it hits land its intensifying. Infact over the years iv noticed quite often a front is over sea and it almost disappears . Then once it hits land it regroups . We can see this over northwest England and Wales . Think this can be a very good event tbh

 

I suspect the western upslope of the Pennines for NW England and Welsh mountains helping pep up those bands of showers as they move inland.

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Yikes! I really want to see this snow, but I see myself being extremely tired tomorrow morning - hopefully caffeine will wake me up  :bad: , or it could snow loads and I won't have to get up!  :yahoo:

... Its tempted to get warmer though  :nonono:

Edited by Cumulonimbus123
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The band across NW England stretching into N Midlands is what interests me as this is expanding all the time.

 

Same here TEITS. It gaining in size and intensity slowly. it also looks on a course to pass in a line roughly through Peterborough, Ely, and out through Suffolk.

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