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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday


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Is it only me, or are the 'is it a/isn't it a Polar low' reamrks just plain old semantics.........as long as I get a dumping of snow, you can call it a lesser spotted chocolate teapot if you want    

Hi all.  Had great fun following this brilliant forum last night.  Just to introduce myself; I was senior forecaster at Manchester Weather Centre for 20 years, now retired.  I think that it was defini

so then....members in the west believe it'll track down the irish sea giving the action in the western regions...... members in the east believe it'll track though northern england and the SE giving s

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Ah, but is it polar low or just a small synoptic low? Seen a number of people in the know who are not convinced but would love to proved wrong!

 

Anyway, polar low or not, this will be fun to watch!

I'm going as a midlands event , East wales and as Far East as Warwickshire , then swinging southeast , I think Oxford should get some beofre slipping South .

Just out of interest this seems very intense and I would think it certainly had the potential to drop anything from 5-10cm for those in the prime spot . Just wondering what your and others thoughts were ?

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I'll go with NW England, W Midlands, Central Southern Eng and then through I.O.W

 

I think thats quite close but I'd go a touch south and east than that, with a movement slowly swinging more and more SE as time goes by. SSE for the next 6hrs then more pure SE afterwards.

 

All those years of hurricane tracking and forecasting is going to come in handy here I hope!

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Ah, but is it polar low or just a small synoptic low? Seen a number of people in the know who are not convinced but would love to proved wrong!

 

Anyway, polar low or not, this will be fun to watch!

If they look at the animation Nick then they will see how it has formed and is not thermal boundary driven at inception. If it becomes so, then so be it, but it wasn't at inception.

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A bit precise but much closer to the mark than many on here. The snow of course will be to the North and East of that track and strong winds and potential thunderstorms on a more dramatic SW side.

 

"much closer to the mark"

 

We don't know where the "mark" is, that's kinda the point

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Ah, but is it polar low or just a small synoptic low? Seen a number of people in the know who are not convinced but would love to proved wrong!

 

Anyway, polar low or not, this will be fun to watch!

 

Its a grand question, I think it looks like a Polar low, its in marginal conditions for them to form but the source is good for it and the structure is great.

 

With that being said, it kind of reminds me of the Jan 2010 low when it was near the south coast, especially on the radar and that was a similar low that formed in a broader cylconic flow from the north/north-west.

 

Won't be as much though as its more convective rather than frontal in nature like that one was.

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I don't think it is a true Polar Low. A polar Low is a sub-synoptic feature which will not show up on a synoptic chart. I remember reading an article in Weather magazine about the Shetland Polar Low in February 2001. 500Hpa temperatures need to be below -52C. Forms in a strong baroclinic flow. Warm cored like it's tropical cousin. Centre filled with Nimbostratus producing heavy snow with gale force 8+ force winds at the surface.

 

Free online if anyone's interested: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.6080581205/pdf

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Given its not far away from the English coast now, tracks putting it through Wales seem well off. Looks like hitting somewhere on the Preston / Lancashire peninsular then heading SE from there; center will be over there within next hour and half.

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Does anyone know how to download the animation on this site 

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

Would be really useful to download from tomorrow morning so that we can have the polar low from inception to finish.

 

I have no idea how to save the animation but they do have still images for 15 minute intervals available via "Satellite Images".

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I think it will just run out of puff on the Irish sea between Dublin and Holyhead ...

For what it's worth, just had a serious squall line pass through here, massive rain droplets and very gusty. If it had fallen as snow, we'd have had several inches fall, the droplets were that big!  Rain rate of 80mm/hr at it's peak!

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Does anyone know how to download the animation on this site 

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

Would be really useful to download from tomorrow morning so that we can have the polar low from inception to finish.

 

I saved it as an AVI, check post 274 of this thread

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