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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday

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Sheffield/Leek/East Mids then down into the South East probably.

Thanks.. we'll see I suppose. Home counties will probably miss.

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Might just as well get people to put their locations in as that will be the track that they predict!

I didn't as I'm SE Scotland and we have no snow 

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Remember - it will swing towards the SE as it follows the parent low.

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So forecaster pressure on now, which English counties will the centre of the low move over tonight. Will have to be judged from radar imagery. Irish Sea to English Chanel or North Sea. Forecast tracks please. 700mb 850mb winds are NNW

 

 

 

Just for fun, and we can have a look in the morning. This kind of small scale low is notoriously tricky to forecast, so don't feel pressured

 

As you say radar is going to give the true image of exactly where the center is located, on the Sat.imagery the LP center looks like its tucked into the SW corner of that swirl of cloud circulating around the core.

 

Track will depend on strength of low, the weaker it goes the further east it'll get as it start to rotate more into the broad flow around the parent upper low, the stronger it is should mean the further west it'll stay as a distinct feature of its own and won't get tugged so easily into the main flow.

 

Interesting situation that is for sure.

Edited by kold weather

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Of course not, it can't go back where it go from, it isn't going to suddenly go immediate westwards etc...

Yeah, I'm not dumb, but I concede my question should have been more specific like "could this head anywhere but back where it came from or perpendicular from its current track"

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I'm going for irish sea to chanel coast but I'm a bit biased as on the coast

out county into Channel?

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Basically.

 

Polar Lows are magical in the sense that they can crop up out of the blue and unpredictable from then on. Usually comes to a nowcast scenario until landfall when it hits land it's likely to continue in that direction and weaken.

Thanks, this is the first one I've had the pleasure of taking notice of.

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Ha!

 

You first ?

 

Irish Sea... Via Peak District... Towards SE ! Heavy snow for those East of Manchester...

 

If you look at the latest NW Radar, you can see the streamer running through the Peaks... Thats my track.

 

Judging by the sat data I've seen I'll plump for an exit point close to the Isle of Wight, maybe a fraction west.

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Maybe a little off topic, but went to the bottom of my garden with temps and dewpoints on the positive side and found my van has ice on it, strange as its windy as well.... :cold:  :cold:  :cold:

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I have to say that ever since I have been a member here I have always wanted to track a polar low online - great that we are finally able to do so!

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Does anyone know how to download the animation on this site 

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

Would be really useful to download from tomorrow morning so that we can have the polar low from inception to finish.

 

Yes please - I asked this earlier. It's a flash animation I think and I have no idea how to save it.

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I'm naming Wiltshire after Wales, Hants, clip W.Sussex - will the snow to the east get london?

Happy if that comes off! .....I'll go a tad further west.... Wales, then into far east of Somerset, before exiting over Christchurch in Dorset

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Happy if that comes off! .....I'll go a tad further west.... Wales, then into far east of Somerset, before exiting over Christchurch in Dorset

A bit precise but much closer to the mark than many on here. The snow of course will be to the North and East of that track and strong winds and potential thunderstorms on a more dramatic SW side.

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I'll go with NW England, W Midlands, Central Southern Eng and then through I.O.W

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I have to say that ever since I have been a member here I have always wanted to track a polar low online - great that we are finally able to do so!

 

Ah, but is it polar low or just a small synoptic low? Seen a number of people in the know who are not convinced but would love to proved wrong!

 

Anyway, polar low or not, this will be fun to watch!

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I reckon the cotswolds could be in for some decent snow, of course I hope Birmingham area getsome a direct hit but just think it will be a bit more sw, so yeah cotswolds for me is the best place

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