Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Met4Cast

Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday

Recommended Posts

A YELLOW FLASH warning of Snow has been issued for parts of Northern Ireland.

A polar low has developed near Scoland and is expected to track over eastern areas of NI this evening, this was unexpected hence a flash warning has been issued. This is likely to bring an area of snow for Co Antrim and Co Down, which could be heavy. Accumulations of 2 - 5 cm are likely in a short space of time and accumulations of up to 10cm locally and over the hills.

 

Has there? Can't find it on the Met Office website.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is it only me, or are the 'is it a/isn't it a Polar low' reamrks just plain old semantics.........as long as I get a dumping of snow, you can call it a lesser spotted chocolate teapot if you want :pardon:   

 

Should we call it a Modern Polar Low? :p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Polar lows and heat lows are classed as Thermal lows but a Polar low will take heat from the sea surface and also get latent heat from the instablity action going on within the low, such as CBs forming. 

so perhaps a chocolate teapot low can join the thermal gang


Has there? Can't find it on the Met Office website.

me neither

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Polar Low or not, attached are the reported after effects as it passed by Barra, an island off the NW of Scotland.  :cold:

 

pp.jpg

Edited by gottolovethisweather

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

I don't like criticising fellow forecasters, but the BBC and Met Office are notoriously slow at updating to real-time situations as we know. It's infuriating! They might be right though, you never know.

 

The BBC respond to what the Met tell them, and I think that is a very inaccurate representation of the Met's approach. What the Met will not do is be alarmist - and they wont respond to a potential situation until they are sure about it. To imply that they have not been scanning their high res models in the build up to this evening is poppycock. IF has posted many times on here as to the regular briefings that go on daily, and the constant analysis of data in Exeter and the very swift flow of advice to the Beeb. Are you saying that you think members on here have analysed the 12z Euro4 model before Exeter have got around to doing it, and are faster than those paid full time to interpret that data? 

 

Let's wait and see what happens. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The BBC respond to what the Met tell them, and I think that is a very inaccurate representation of the Met's approach. What the Met will not do is be alarmist - and they wont respond to a potential situation until they are sure about it. To imply that they have not been scanning their high res models in the build up to this evening is poppycock. IF has posted many times on here as to the regular briefings that go on daily, and the constant analysis of data in Exeter and the very swift flow of advice to the Beeb. Are you saying that you think members on here have analysed the 12z Euro4 model before Exeter have got around to doing it, and are faster than those paid full time to interpret that data? 

 

Let's wait and see what happens. 

 

In past instances they have been slow to change forecasts when things are evidently not going to plan, not always, but it does happen.

 

And for what it's worth, I am also paid full time to do what you've described. 

 

Anyway, back to the topic...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Currently looking like I'll see something from this. It's really interesting though, shows how quickly things can develop.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't like criticising fellow forecasters, but the BBC and Met Office are notoriously slow at updating to real-time situations as we know. It's infuriating! They might be right though, you never know.

 

Indeed and in this day and age there isn't any excuse for it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

 

 

"A favoured position for the formation of polar lows is on the western flank of an occluded low" Met O forecasting notes

 

Can't argue with that. This 'Polar Low' has warmer uppers than the ones that struck the Shetland Isles in Feb 2001 and Dec 1995. The latter dumped 1ft of snow on Xmas Eve.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The precipitation area appears to be expanding  as it moves southwards (not necessarily gaining intensity, but expanding a little)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is it only me, or are the 'is it a/isn't it a Polar low' reamrks just plain old semantics.........as long as I get a dumping of snow, you can call it a lesser spotted chocolate teapot if you want :pardon:   

Nah back in the 70s you knew it was a polar low alright, it put down a foot of snow in 6 hours at -5c!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Should we call it a Modern Polar Low? :p

Postmodern Polar Low. lol

Edited by Costa Del Fal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Has there? Can't find it on the Met Office website.

Could be Met Éireann?

 

Not sure if they have that warning, I can't read Irish.

Edited by CAPE-steve

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lots of lightning being thrown by this polar low, all on the southern flank, so it could be a loud night for a few people.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

I best hide my head in shame.  :nonono: Right, no more derailing the thread from me, back I go to my regional hosting job.  :)

Edited by gottolovethisweather

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting to see how this PL will effect the model output in the next few days, I certainly expect some changes to the shorter term NWP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agree that there is potential for 3-5 cm snowfalls along eastern flank of this rapid moving low.

 

Southwest Wales should be placed under a red alert for very strong winds overnight, pressure gradient on western flank of low looks extreme on meso-scale models. WNW to NNW 70 mph gusting to 110 is quite possible with this once it gets over the Irish Sea and moves inland in central Wales. For parts of Cornwall, Devon and western Somerset, 60 mph gusting to 100 by about 0300-0600h. These may be the greatest impacts of the system.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks to me on the radar  that it will track Cheshire gap, Birmingham then London although I doubt it will amount to much by then

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agree that there is potential for 3-5 cm snowfalls along eastern flank of this rapid moving low.

 

Southwest Wales should be placed under a red alert for very strong winds overnight, pressure gradient on western flank of low looks extreme on meso-scale models. WNW to NNW 70 mph gusting to 110 is quite possible with this once it gets over the Irish Sea and moves inland in central Wales. For parts of Cornwall, Devon and western Somerset, 60 mph gusting to 100 by about 0300-0600h. These may be the greatest impacts of the system.

A PL weakens rapidly once it makes landfall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...