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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday


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Is it only me, or are the 'is it a/isn't it a Polar low' reamrks just plain old semantics.........as long as I get a dumping of snow, you can call it a lesser spotted chocolate teapot if you want    

Hi all.  Had great fun following this brilliant forum last night.  Just to introduce myself; I was senior forecaster at Manchester Weather Centre for 20 years, now retired.  I think that it was defini

so then....members in the west believe it'll track down the irish sea giving the action in the western regions...... members in the east believe it'll track though northern england and the SE giving s

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Crikey...i hope so, dont think ive ever experienced a polar low, if it is were is likely to track.

 

ECM have this low - @15Z   

 

ecm0125_millikort_0level_msl_2015012900_

 

 

 

....and by T24....

 

ecm0125_millikort_0level_msl_2015012900_

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It's origin would suggest it's not a polar low

 

"Polar Lows" don't have to originate from the Pole, a Polar Low could form in the North Sea, they're called "Polar" lows because they from in unstable polar airflows.

 

Though this is getting off topic, only half an hour until the 12z starts to roll out

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"Polar Lows" don't have to originate from the Pole, a Polar Low could form in the North Sea, they're called "Polar" lows because they from in unstable polar airflows.

 

Though this is getting off topic, only half an hour until the 12z starts to roll out

Never said they did, but you're correct. Off topic!
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Out of all the shouts we have seen over the years claiming to be polar lows, this one looks as close to be one, as anything. Perhaps the upper temps of -35C could be a tad lower, but the sea may be a touch warmer than average, so it's all relative.

 

I think that it is....

Good call by Daniel then. My guess is that, if it was off the English east coast then that might create some consternation for the MO. As it is off the NW coast of Scotland and as they are supposed to be short lived affairs then it may not even get a mention.

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Out of all the shouts we have seen over the years claiming to be polar lows, this one looks as close to be one, as anything. Perhaps the upper temps of -35C could be a tad lower, but the sea may be a touch warmer than average, so it's all relative.

 

I think that it is....

What implications do you think this could have for tonight??

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chionomaniac, on 29 Jan 2015 - 15:12, said:

Out of all the shouts we have seen over the years claiming to be polar lows, this one looks as close to be one, as anything. Perhaps the upper temps of -35C could be a tad lower, but the sea may be a touch warmer than average, so it's all relative.

 

I think that it is....

Surely by definition Chino, if it's been around long enough to be picked up on the 0z ECM, it is definitely not a Polar low?

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Don't they tend to be invisible though?

 

Not visible on synoptic charts, just given away on sat pics by the characteristic comma of cloud forming in the flow.

 

Generally a now cast yes, so if any model has picked it up, it's more likely to be just a LP system, as they are so hard to predict, and usually only see them on Sat Pics.

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Surely by definition Chino, if it's been around long enough to be picked up on the 0z ECM, it is definitely not a Polar low?

Going off what the 0z ECM did pick up I would hardly suggest it correctly saw this system at all

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Surely if models are improving all the time though it would be feasible now that they can be picked up? where as perhaps 10years ago they might not have been?

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OK ive just checked out the models soundings, had a look at the Satellite images .. This is indeed, it would appear, a genuine Polar Low. I doubt it'll get further than western Scotland.. however it is quite fragmented. The flow overnight is actually perfect for a Polar Low.. if you look at the charts for the next 12 hours.. this is as good a situation for a Polar Low to develop.. but it's whether it can last it's journey down the Irish Sea, which i don't think it will. That said, it's still winding itself up.

I agree - Though I think it has a higher chance of surviving for longer as it does not have too much to battle against..

Will be interested to see what if anything is made of it on the 12z's

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I think this is the feature that is predicted to make its way down over Wales and SW England tonight. A strong wind warning for here as well as snow after midnight. Sorry OT

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Thing of beauty... You can see it develop, 100% a Polar Low.

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 Fantastic satellite animation.. what you can see if how the Polar Low develops from a life support from the main low, via what appears to be some Baroclinic means.. then start to develop it's own 'eye' as it moves south. 

 

Even if it doesn't end up dumping snow on us, it's definitely one to keep for the archives.

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